The Big Lie is still in place because the trusted communication infrastructure that supported & cemented the Big Lie is still in place. If your plans/advice to Dems re future elections aren't grappling w/this ongoing reality, *you're* the one living in a fantasy version of the US
Like this👇 should not be an evergreen tweet. yet here we are
As a Cardcarrying Historian™ I've been thinking a lot about what sources future historians will have to work with in reconstructing this moment: & am struck by how radically different your understanding of just what happened in 2020—& what people thought about—will be, depending
The political debate that was going on in the semi-private public realm of community Fb groups looked nothing like the range of debate visible thru elite media sources. An example is the role of perceptions of "Antifa violence", which I tried to trace here
2020's polling miss was just one repercussion of a *broader* accelerating fracture of communication spaces & willingness to communicate across them. I don't see center-to-left analysts+activists grappling w this: everyone seems too busy insisting results proved their priors right
This @peterdslevin piece from last month is really important in capturing the layered & reinforcing dynamics involved. It's not just about Trump. It's not just about Facebook. It's not just disinfo per se.
& I'm here to tell you, it's not just Iowa. newyorker.com/news/campaign-…
👇How can you trust politicians who aren't talking about the reality you are convinced exists (elsewhere)? But how can Dem politicians span that gap when the RW version of reality—on basic questions like "is COVID serious?" or "did Biden win the election"—has moved beyond truth? Image
I was fascinated by this @PerryUndem research in which "Trump's lies"/"Pres Trump cares about people like me"+views of BLM are the strongest predictors of vote choice. Does this mean opinions of Trump simply *drove* vote choice tho? Correlation≠causation perryundem.com/wp-content/upl… Image
If the election was all about Trump then, all good! national nightmare: over. But what if it's that those questions are the ones that index most efficiently which communications universe respondents inhabit? A world in which Trump lies? or one in which he's the American dream? Image
Note too "Joe Biden's lies" highly cited by Trump voters. & “Kamala Harris is tricking everyone. She only cares about becoming president” was among very strongest vote predictors. We're all convinced we're being lied to bc we're personally factchecking against different realities ImageImage
This week I dived back into the rabbit hole of links shared in community Fb groups before & after the election, up thru Jan 6 when Fb cracked down & everything changed. I ran back into this: which has been viewed 1.6 million times (+another 900K on YouTb?) facebook.com/10004452648566… Image
It really exemplifies how many actors leaned in to the distrust-disinfo[-profit] cycle—I mean here's someone w 2.9 million Fb followers + 1.9 million on YT who AFAIK hasn't even made the "journalists routinely namecheck as conspiracist" big time (but see👇 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JP_Sears Image
Picking this thread up again & starting w/👇bc...
...my TL is again seesawing btwn Round No. I'veLostCount of the Dem messaging wars OTOH & handwringing about demography[might-not-actually-be]destiny OTO. & I'm left asking:
When do we get the pundit-cycle that focuses on the many layers of rules/institutions/networks in between? ImageImage

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More from @lara_putnam

30 Apr
Today I learned that a new anti-racist civic group in an upscale suburb near me, that grew out of a local #BlackLivesMatter protest on June 11, 2020, at the height of George Floyd vigils & solidarity protests nationwide... Image
... & then carried energy into a campaign to change a derogatory park name over the summer... triblive.com/local/valley-n…
... not only continues to exist but is now hosted events like zoom forums, for community to meet & question local candidates in the upcoming primary. Huh!

I don't think anyone has a clear sense of how widespread this kind of civic consequence of the last spring's protest wave is Image
Read 5 tweets
27 Apr
(Attenborough voice) the Green Lantern theory of political messaging is rarely spotted in such pure form in the wild— Image
This keeps happening, so I made you all a helpful chart Image
Read 7 tweets
23 Apr
Oh my gosh people this dashboard is just...🤯 A map of the universe the size of the universe. Possibly I may never do anything else ever again?
Like, how did the partisan breakdown of college-educated white voters evolve in Lycoming County over the past 3 elections? Yeah, sure, I have that for you no problem 😳😳 !!!! targetearly.targetsmart.com/historic.html?… Image
Yes, the number of Hispanic voters in Berks county did fall, not just in relative but in absolute terms, from 2016 to 2020 targetearly.targetsmart.com/historic.html?… Image
Read 7 tweets
17 Apr
So reverse coattails are up for debate again, & I do actually have some thoughts. But I am afraid they are going to frustrate all parties in this debate equally! You're better off just muting this thread right now tbh [1/17,000]
Here's the NYTimes piece folks are responding to today, which reports on the results of a study funded by RunForSomething nytimes.com/2021/04/16/us/…
Here is the public write-up of the study in question itself👇. If there is a more detailed write-up out there, I'd love to be pointed to it? Bc as it stands the structure of the comparative analysis here leaves me very confused (on which, more below...) runforsomething.net/wp-content/upl…
Read 27 tweets
8 Apr
This👇 (from @StanGreenberg) matches what I've seen since last summer in right-leaning social media spaces. And it pushes to me ask aloud—as a real question, not a rhetorical one—Why aren't we talking how 'Antifa' cost the Democrats votes? No, really, why? democracycorps.com/republican-par…
Put differently, what are the stakes & consequences of taking a summer of protest understood by so many voters as having been driven by "Antifa"—& instead talking as if race+policing entered public debate driven & shaped by a handful of activists messaging "defund the police"?
You're gonna say but Lara, Antifa isn't a real thing, not in the way Greenberg's respondents are talking about it👇. To which I say, yes: correct. That seems like an important thing to be reckoning with?
Read 34 tweets
16 Mar
I literally pay for a NYMag subscription just to read @EricLevitz (really!) so am not dunking but truly asking: did I miss the data that enshrined "Hispanic voters polarized by education in 2020" as confirmed fact rather than loose hypothesis? nymag.com/intelligencer/… Image
It's clear Hispanic voters on aggregate in 2020 voted *more like* non-college non-Hisp white voters & *less like* college educated nHw than they had in 2016: but of course that's not the same as the claim that *among* Hispanc voters it was non-college who swung hardest fr 2016-20
And the specifics of where Hispanic vote shifts (visible everywhere nationally, agreed) were *strongest* are very hard to square w/"educational polarization" as descriptor. So, eg👇, pro-Trump swing esp strong in FL, & esp strong among Vzlans & Colombians nymag.com/intelligencer/… Image
Read 11 tweets

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