Thread by @BillKristol

1. Short thread on TX-06.
Of the vote for Republican candidates in TX-06 (a bit over 60% of the total), about 20% of it went to candidates who were hostile to or expressed reservations about Trump, about 25% to super-Trump enthusiasts, and about 55% to the two front-runners...

2. ...one of whom was endorsed by Trump (Susan Wright), while the other wouldn't say a critical word about Trump (Jake Ellzey). You might say the GOP primary voters seem to have been (very roughly) 20% in line with Liz Cheney, 25% with Jim Jordan, and 55% with Kevin McCarthy.

3. One might note that Susan Wright, though leading in the first round, got less than 20% of the vote. And she'd been slightly ahead even before the Trump endorsement. Maybe a Trump endorsement isn't quite what it's cracked up to be?

4. On the other hand, a Trump strategy of not supporting his true believers, but endorsing an establishment type who's willing to genuflect, isn't foolish. You end up with a member of Congress who owes you, and who'll do a lot to keep in your good graces. (Think Kevin McCarthy.)

5. It will be interesting to see if Trump can help Susan Wright across the line in the final round. This might depend in part on whether Democrats show up to vote for Ellzey or just stay home (staying home seems more likely).

6. Yes, there were reasons for Dems not to be excited about this special--(a) it's still a R district, and b) if a Dem won, the lines would get redrawn unfavorably in redistricting. Still, should Dems be a little concerned about yesterday as a harbinger of low turnout in 2022?

7. One special election (especially a 23-candidate jungle primary) can't tell us much. But it does seem that while the Republican electorate may not be fully Trump-cheerleading, it is Trump-accommodating, Trump-defending, and Trump-liking. It's certainly not Trump-rejecting.

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