One thing I find a bit weird is that discussion of how the herd immunity math might play out in the US often brushes past the role that natural immunity (from having had COVID) plays. Experts estimate that ~1/3 of the US population has had COVID at some point.
You can't just add up the ~33% who had COVID and the ~45% who've been vaccinated because there is some overlap between those groups. But survey data etc. suggests less overlap than you'd think since unvaccinated people tend to have been taking fewer precautions against COVID.
And, of course, there will be less and less overlap over time, since unvaccinated people are disproportionately more likely to get COVID going forward.
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