Thread by @sajjanjnu

1/1My projection on Bengal turned out to be way off the mark. This was shocking for me after calling some of the recent elections like Bihar and Delhi and before that, MP, Chhatisgarh,Tripura etc right, following the same method. Nevertheless, a mistake is a mistake.

1/2 However, there are two aspects which needs to be seen separately, my seat projections which went wrong and the processes I explained as part of the political processes in Bengal based on my observation. Wrong numbers don't necessarily negative the concepts I employed.

1/3First, Subaltern Hindutva is not a new concept which I used or invented for Bengal, it's there since 2013. it was employed in the backdrop of greater degree of acceptability of the BJP among the subalterns as compared to middle class in Bengal.

1/4 For instance, more than half seats that BJP won are from reserved constituencies, particularly the SC reserved segments.
Similarly, I had maintained throughout and written about the no split in minority votes.
Mistakes:
After introspection, I feel that I underestimated

1/5 general tendency to exonerate MB by the same respondents who were angry with the Trinamool and desired change. Two, I overestimated the seamless translation of pro change sentiment into a vote for BJP symbol despite party's organisational weakness and lack of faces at ACs.

1/6Thus, I feel that BJP's organisational weakness failed to translate pro change sentiment at many segments. Though, that still would have got my projections way off the mark.

1/7Also, I didn't find that gender was an autonomous variable in Bengal's electoral arena. While I respect other researchers' assertion around the same, I found women respondents' opinion largely in congruence with their community and locality.

1/8Also,there are people who doubt my claim to have visited all the 294 seats. Some who are aware about my visit to all ACs have started calling me a BJP plant as I was making a strong case for mood for change. Let me just say, enquire a bit more, you will get someone at Kolkata

1/9who would tell you about my visit to all the ACs. Many accompanied me in different regions which they knew, where they had contacts. Besides, West Bengal is just another state which I toured comprehensively. Have been doing the same at others states in the past. So end of it.

1/10And about my being a BJP plant for predicting a BJP victory,get some better gossip for adda. U may read my Delhi election report +article. And pls refrain from pontificating on Subaltern Hindutva if you don't understand it. Finally, my apologies to all who were disappointed.