End of April 2021 Portfolio Holdings

Top positions:
• $CRWD
• $ETSY
• $PLTR
• $UPST
• $NET
• $APPS

Mostly Inactive in April.

• New position: $PATH | $KLIC
• Exits: $ATER | $OPEN [nothing fundamental, portfolio adjustments]

I'll share my thoughts and rationales later: Image
2/ My account is pretty aggressive due to my horizon

Second managed Portfolio-2:
• Growth: $SE - $KLIC - $DOCU - $CRWD - $ZS
• Semi-Value: $MS - $BNS.TO - $FANG - $FCX

** [Strict balanced style for fam]

Other personal holdings:
- $BTC * $ETH
- Own a tiny bit into $HIVE.VN
3/ I bought $PATH - Leader in automation.

Example: $PATH helped hospitals cut waiting lines for Covid testing from 3mins to 15-secs; helped nurses reduce paperwork from 3-hours/day to 5-mins!

There is much more.. As promised, I plan to do a thread in May
3ii) I bought $KLIC based on financials and fundamental reasons. They have the best revenue growth, earnings growth rates and EPS estimates in the semi-conductor industry.

Big transformation here and benefitting from the tailwinds.

4/ Portfolio highlights:

- $CRWD continued to deliver with their Investor day
- $NET's announcement w. $NVDA was delightful.
- $UPST added new partners
- $PLTR's double click demo was good
- $APPS completed acquisitions
- $AGC deal announced - I'm now analyzing $GRAB vs $SE. ImageImageImage
5/
- $AFRM showed data that the business is accelerating
- $DND.TO continues to show why they dominate the SaaS legal industry
- WELL.TO continues to show leadership in Canadian telehealth
- $KLIC posted good guidance

Hope to share much more over the next month! ImageImage
6/ On general market:

Within the next 6-8 months, I expect two big market events to create a massive buying opportunity,

i) 10-yr rises to +2% to catch up to higher commodities & inflation.

ii) When the Fed starts reducing asset purchases.

This is just how history works..
7/ Cont'd:
Go back & study - 1980's, 2004-06, 2011, 2016 and 2018 market periods.

It's characteristics of an early stage of a bull market. Economic sensitive stocks outperforms. Tech/Growth don't lead, its fine.

I wrote extensively about business cycles:
investianalystnewsletter.substack.com/p/whats-happen…
8/ Leading sectors are banks, transportation, financials, industrials, anything outdoors, semi's etc

I highly recommend checking out @allstarcharts - Year 2 of a bull market. It's historically choppy after you get a strong year like 2020, we're in Y2 now

9/ Except the virus takes a turn, if not, I expect 2021 to follow history about how markets perform in an early business cycle. Nothing is new in markets.

I'm focused on the next decade, so I'm prepared to underperform in 2021 / buy the dips / set my account for the long-run !
10/ 2021 for me is primarily focused on research & finding mid-cap / growth companies that meet my characteristics:

• Big TAM
• Scalability
• Optionality
• High margins.
• Bold leadership
• Emerging moat
• Disrupting old industries
• Expanding Network effects.
11/
Finally, I'm 90% invested, but prepared for big buying opportunities. I expect tech to start outperforming once the business cycle normalizes.

My horizon is truly focused on the next 5-10 years.

I'm an optimist on innovation. I'm committed to sharing research & threads🙂
12/ My apologies to my subscribers or followers, my schedule was busy in April, so I had lots of threads and newsletters that I missed writing on.

I'm hoping in May, I get more time and can do much more! Thank you!

investianalystnewsletter.substack.com/welcome

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More from @InvestiAnalyst

5 May
My review and highlights from $ETSY's Earnings Call:

Thread Outline:
1) Top-line figures
2) Buyer & seller growth
3) Marketplace acceleration
4) FY 2021 Outlook
5) Key management discussion

My Theme: Cautious guidance sets them up to over-deliver.

Phenomenal results 🧵 Image
2/ Top-line figures:

Revenue of $550M+141% YoY
• GMS Revenue - 132% YoY
• Services Revenue - 90% YoY
• Gross Profit - 180% YoY
• Reverb's marketplace acquisition contributed to growth
• Stimulus checks helped
-/+ deceleration in revenue QoQ

Category breakdown -> ImageImage
3/ $ETSY Marketplace growth:

• Marketplace Revenue- 141% YoY
+ Marketplace- 165%
+Services - 90% YoY
- Marketplace = combination of visits+conversion+AoV)
• Home improvement is still one of highest spend

CFO indicated that April is already momentum. Essential part. Image
Read 11 tweets
3 May
$CHGG 📚continues to execute!

My Q1 High level overview:
• Q1 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.28
• Revenue of $198M (50% YoY) beats
• Chegg Services subscribers, up 64% YoY to 4.8M from Q4's 4.4M

• Notable is the 32% EBITDA margin acceleration & QoQ sequential growth across the business⬇️ Image
2/ As a refresher, this is a business breakdown/ structure of $CHGG

-Revenues come from $CHGG Services & Required Materials.
- $CHGG Services primarily includes Chegg Study, Writing, Math Solver, Study Pack, Thinkful, and Mathway.
-Required Materials includes print/e-textbooks Image
3/ $CHGG - Solid description of the value proposition.

This line stood-out from the earnings call as it best describes the company. Image
Read 10 tweets
2 May
How To Analytically Assess An Earnings Report.

Outline of this Thread - What To Do:
• Pre & Post Earnings
• During the Earnings Call
• Key Metrics to track
• The Psychology

Earning can be a merging of multiple expectations (h/t @jackbutcher)

A Comprehensive guide below:🧵
2/ Why should you care:

• Earnings report (ER) are crucial times
• *Many* Institutions have their expectations & are ready to increase/Initiate/Decrease position which lead to big stock movements
• It determines future of a stock

Chart by @jaminball - show how stocks react:
3/ First; what defines an excellent earnings:

Formula: Actual - Expectation = The % of Surprise

... Determine big stock movements.

Factors:
1⃣ How much a company beats the Analysts estimates on Earnings, Revenue & Guidance
2⃣ Customer acceleration
3⃣ New product launch/ M&A
Read 26 tweets
30 Apr
Peter Lynch

One of the greatest and most successful investors ever on Wall Street. He averaged +29% CAGR over a decade.

Today is a great day to review his Top 7 Pearls of Wisdom that made him great⬇️

(1/8) - Thread:🧵
1/ Market Timing:

✅When stocks are attractive, buy. I've bought stocks at $12 that went > $2, but later went > $30. You don't know when you can find the bottom.”

✅"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections."
2/GN

✅During the Gold Rush, most would-be miners lost money, but people who sold them picks, shovels, tents, and blue-jeans made a nice profit.

✅Investing in stocks is an art, not a science, and people who've been trained to rigidly quantify everything have a big disadvantage
Read 9 tweets
28 Apr
The Biggest Tech Companies now generate almost
$1-Trillion in Revenues on an annual run rate!

An amount that rivals the GDP of many countries on Earth.

Visual Thread on their Revenue & Key drivers: ⬇️
$AAPL - The Leader!

✅Q1 2021: Revenue of $89.6B (+53.7% YoY) big beats by $12B.

✅TTM Revenue: +$300B

Revenue Breakdown: ⬇️
$GOOGL - Alphabet

✅Q1 2021: Revenue of $55B (+34.4% YoY) - Big beat by $3.6B.

✅TTM Revenue: +$200B

Revenue Breakdown: ⬇️
Read 9 tweets
22 Apr
$PLTR - Palantir's COO, @ssankar is one of the smartest executives in tech and rarely gives press interviews.

When he does, I listen. He gave one yesterday.

Here are 5-key takeaways from the interview with regard to Palantir's Future:

1/5
2/ $PLTR is thinking/exploring ways they could play a role in maintaining the US' lead in Bitcoin.

This is inview of Thiel's comments (Reminder: Thiel is the chairman of $PLTR)

I think something is cooking, though I don't expect to hear anything soon 👀
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ $PLTR's HQ

The company's culture has been strong through the pandemic.

Beyond the valley's ideologies, the move of their HQ to Denver from California is partly a hint of the major work they will be doing with helping scale AI solutions for heavy industrial clients in TX
Read 6 tweets

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