3ii) I bought $KLIC based on financials and fundamental reasons. They have the best revenue growth, earnings growth rates and EPS estimates in the semi-conductor industry.
Big transformation here and benefitting from the tailwinds.
- $CRWD continued to deliver with their Investor day
- $NET's announcement w. $NVDA was delightful.
- $UPST added new partners
- $PLTR's double click demo was good
- $APPS completed acquisitions
- $AGC deal announced - I'm now analyzing $GRAB vs $SE.
5/
- $AFRM showed data that the business is accelerating
- $DND.TO continues to show why they dominate the SaaS legal industry
- WELL.TO continues to show leadership in Canadian telehealth
- $KLIC posted good guidance
Hope to share much more over the next month!
6/ On general market:
Within the next 6-8 months, I expect two big market events to create a massive buying opportunity,
i) 10-yr rises to +2% to catch up to higher commodities & inflation.
ii) When the Fed starts reducing asset purchases.
This is just how history works..
7/ Cont'd:
Go back & study - 1980's, 2004-06, 2011, 2016 and 2018 market periods.
It's characteristics of an early stage of a bull market. Economic sensitive stocks outperforms. Tech/Growth don't lead, its fine.
8/ Leading sectors are banks, transportation, financials, industrials, anything outdoors, semi's etc
I highly recommend checking out @allstarcharts - Year 2 of a bull market. It's historically choppy after you get a strong year like 2020, we're in Y2 now
9/ Except the virus takes a turn, if not, I expect 2021 to follow history about how markets perform in an early business cycle. Nothing is new in markets.
I'm focused on the next decade, so I'm prepared to underperform in 2021 / buy the dips / set my account for the long-run !
10/ 2021 for me is primarily focused on research & finding mid-cap / growth companies that meet my characteristics:
• Big TAM
• Scalability
• Optionality
• High margins.
• Bold leadership
• Emerging moat
• Disrupting old industries
• Expanding Network effects.
11/
Finally, I'm 90% invested, but prepared for big buying opportunities. I expect tech to start outperforming once the business cycle normalizes.
My horizon is truly focused on the next 5-10 years.
I'm an optimist on innovation. I'm committed to sharing research & threads🙂
12/ My apologies to my subscribers or followers, my schedule was busy in April, so I had lots of threads and newsletters that I missed writing on.
I'm hoping in May, I get more time and can do much more! Thank you!
• Marketplace Revenue- 141% YoY
+ Marketplace- 165%
+Services - 90% YoY
- Marketplace = combination of visits+conversion+AoV)
• Home improvement is still one of highest spend
CFO indicated that April is already momentum. Essential part.
My Q1 High level overview:
• Q1 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.28
• Revenue of $198M (50% YoY) beats
• Chegg Services subscribers, up 64% YoY to 4.8M from Q4's 4.4M
• Notable is the 32% EBITDA margin acceleration & QoQ sequential growth across the business⬇️
2/ As a refresher, this is a business breakdown/ structure of $CHGG
-Revenues come from $CHGG Services & Required Materials.
- $CHGG Services primarily includes Chegg Study, Writing, Math Solver, Study Pack, Thinkful, and Mathway.
-Required Materials includes print/e-textbooks
3/ $CHGG - Solid description of the value proposition.
This line stood-out from the earnings call as it best describes the company.
Outline of this Thread - What To Do:
• Pre & Post Earnings
• During the Earnings Call
• Key Metrics to track
• The Psychology
Earning can be a merging of multiple expectations (h/t @jackbutcher)
A Comprehensive guide below:🧵
2/ Why should you care:
• Earnings report (ER) are crucial times
• *Many* Institutions have their expectations & are ready to increase/Initiate/Decrease position which lead to big stock movements
• It determines future of a stock
The company's culture has been strong through the pandemic.
Beyond the valley's ideologies, the move of their HQ to Denver from California is partly a hint of the major work they will be doing with helping scale AI solutions for heavy industrial clients in TX