Thread by @ProfJaneGreen

Evidence here from @BESResearch for why Conservatives should benefit from the collapse of the Brexit Party vote in Hartlepool. ref. today's @Survation poll.

A thread with @RAdeGeus @NuffieldCollege

In 2019 Nigel Farage made the decision that the Brexit Party would stand in seats held by Labour. Hartlepool is now a test of what happens in a red wall Labour held seat *without* the Brexit Party standing (and what size Johnson’s majority could have been in 2019).

In 2019 Brexit Party got 10,603 votes in Hartlepool – 24.8%, Labour got 15,464 (37.7%), Conservatives 11,869 (28.9%). Reform looks highly unlikely to scoop up many former Brexit Party voters. So how will Brexit Party votes split, and what could that mean in Hartlepool?

Let’s assume everything is the same as Dec 2019 but without Brexit Party standing. If the 2019 Dec BXP vote splits 80% Con, Lab 20%, Conservatives would have won Hartlepool. At a 70%, 30% split, it would have been extremely close, and a Conservative win.

This remains true if we give 60% or 50% of Brexit Party votes to the Conservatives, 20% or 10% of Brexit Party votes to Labour respectively (allowing 20% or 30% to go to independents). That also assumes the Conservatives don’t also lose more votes to others.

We have a benchmark to see how Brexit Party voters *can* split. With @BESResearch data we can look at how the Brexit Party vote split from the June 2019 European Parliament elections to the December 2019 general election.

Overall, 84% of EP election Brexit Party voters (N = 5,524) reported voting for the Conservatives in Dec 2019, and 5% for Labour. This chart shows the vote flow of reported vote across the two elections in the @BESResearch panel waves in English constituencies:

In seats where the Brexit Party stood, 71% of EP Brexit Party voters went to the Conservatives, 6% to Labour, 19% stayed with the Brexit Party.

In seats where BXP didn’t stand, 91% went to the Conservatives, 4% went to Labour. If this flow were replicated in Hartlepool, comparing the shares in Dec 2019 and holding everything else constant, the Conservatives would have a comfortable lead over Labour in Hartlepool.

These EP voters are not all BXP voters, and these same figures might not be replicated. The large number of independents might scoop up disenchanted former BXP voters. However, if these figures are indicative, Hartlepool is the Conservative’s to lose.