Have we reached the point where more people are dying from lack of care than from Covid itself? The reason is simply. Capacity is a key determinant of survival rates. Te health care infra is weak and was overwhelmed even by the numbers we saw in the first wave. This is beyond it.
If a hospital can hold survival rates about 99% while treating a max of 100 patients at a time, it can at best stretch itself to treat 150 at a time without worsening the survival rate. In the current scenario, it has to deal with 1000 patients, and that's for Covid alone.
That means, beyond 150 patients no one is getting even a minimum level of care. In that scenario the survival rate drops quickly for all 850. Even if we rush new infra and equipment to hospitals in two weeks, we could still see 3000+ officially recorded deaths for a whole month.
Covid deaths themselves are under-counted quite a bit. Other deaths resulting from lack of infrastructure and service are not counted at all since many of those people don't even get admitted anywhere. Somewhere around 25,000 people a day could be dying, as a combined result.
Meanwhile, we are unable to get the aid we're getting from other countries moving to reach patients. States that are badly hit by the second wave have no information from the government about when this relief will reach them - scroll.in/article/993973…

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More from @ashwinmahesh

7 May
Why have state governments conceded so much space to the Centre that they are now more or less just being dragged along by any policy that New Delhi comes up with, even on state matters? There are three reasons - indifference, party hierarchy, and money.
For most of the state governments, 'Centre-State' relations and governance are not top of their agenda. They are in 'power' and they pursue something else. In this scenario, it does not matter whose policy is being advanced, and what it does to the structure of government.
Even if some of them were to occasionally think about all this, they are so hard-wired into the notion that the Centre is 'superior' to them that they don't question it. Especially elected reps from 'national' parties are very careful in avoiding 'state versus centre' issues.
Read 4 tweets
6 May
Election Commission gets slapped down in the Supreme Court. Its plea to expunge the remarks of Madras HC that its officers should be held responsible for loss of many lives was rejected. Its other plea, that court proceedings should not be reported in public, was also shot down.
The second part is more important. I don't think the EC has any self-respect; it has allowed its image to drop quite badly anyway. The first plea was only a cover for the second one, which would have had implications for many other important cases in the higher courts.
The court not only blew that away, the judges also set the bar higher for anyone else in the future who wants to put curbs on media coverage of courts. The EC is like many other gross under-performers in our governance; it cannot even do the bad things efficiently.
Read 4 tweets
5 May
50,000+ new covid cases in Karnataka, and still rising from day to day. And the Centre now says we must prepare for a third wave. We the people are trying to prepare as best as we can. How about you, the people in the governments?
4 lakh cases again nationwide, and record deaths. 100+ deaths even in several of the smaller states. And these are just the recorded numbers. Those who don't get admitted at all die unseen by the system, but their families' tragedies are no less severe.
Active cases in Bengaluru now at 3.1 lakhs - six times higher than Mumbai, and three times the number in Delhi. Absolutely caught in a 'deer in the headlights' moment with no clue how to even organise a defense against the virus.
Read 4 tweets
5 May
As anticipated by the Constitutional Conduct Group, the recently retired Chief Election Commissioner is now the Governor of Goa. Elections coming up there too. He can do dual duty !!
'Revolving door' rules should apply to people in statutory and constitutional bodies as well, barring them from holding public offices for some years after they retire.
Julio Ribeiro's article on this - "The Election Commission was a proudly independent institution. It celebrated the reign of democracy in our ancient land. Alas, not anymore. Our own colleagues have ensured its slow death."
tribuneindia.com/news/comment/t…
Read 4 tweets
4 May
Data. Once the Delhi High Court started looking at the data on tankers, oxygen, etc. it became obvious who is doing what, and who is not. Issued show-cause notices to Central govt, threatening contempt action. Senior officials of Industries Dept summoned to court tomorrow.
Delhi’s 'Oxygen Bulletin' - 3rd May 2021:
- Demand: 976 MT
- Supply: 433 MT

Meanwhile, the first of the 21 oxygen plants being imported by the State government from France installed at CWG village.
Delhi and Mumbai will get over the hump sooner than other places, although they are hit hard. They have their own funds (in MH, thanks to decentralisation to BMC) which allows faster local action. Large states have to deal with a much larger problem in the hinterland districts.
Read 4 tweets
4 May
Every once in a while, we hit a moment in our politics when it's useful to revisit 'federalism'. Two winning CM-designate leaders have now written to the PM, urging cooperative federalism. But what is this federalism? Here's the unroll from The Federal Manifesto I put together.
1. Federalism must be a first principle of organising administration, resources, responsibilities, powers, etc. between different levels of government. Wherever there are choices to be made between alternatives, the most federal choice should receive primacy over others.
2. Each district should have an elected government covering both rural and urban areas. Most services currently provided by the state governments should be devolved to districts, and a guaranteed share of state revenues should devolve to them.
Read 12 tweets

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