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Phil Kerpen

4 May, 4 tweets, 1 min read

The original (much worse than reality) Ferg model that shut down the world estimated R0 at 2.4.

Classic SIR formula of HIT = 1 - (1/R0) at 2.4 yield HIT of 58.3%.

Israel first dose as of today (58.15%) is still short of that and positivity rate went under 1% on April 4. If we look two weeks earlier than that on March 21 Israel was at 55.72% first dose and 49.16% fully vaxed. And decline was steep earlier.

datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/gener…

It is likely that very soon, perhaps today, Massachusetts and Vermont will be the first states to have a higher percent of total pop first dosed than Israel. And we likely have much more natural immunity than Israel from larger past waves. ~125 million Americans.

70% of the U.S. adult population is 54.4% of the total population, which suggests the Biden goal might be based on looking at Israel.

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Phil Kerpen

@kerpen

3 May

HHS % positive by NOAA climate region

West region is excluded from last because again it only has two states and more recent Nevada than California, causing an artificial jump when combined.

DC/MD/VA

Read 5 tweets

Phil Kerpen

@kerpen

2 May

@BurbioCalendar

Schools update from @BurbioCalendar:

% US K-12 students attending "virtual-only" schools = 3.3% (from 5.6 % last week)
% US K-12 students attending "traditional" in-person/every day schools = 67.1% (from 65.3%)
% US K-12 students attending "hybrid" schools = 29.6% (from 29.1%)

Hawaii, California, and Maryland are the only states still under 60% in-person.
cai.burbio.com/school-opening…

Burbio percent of students still virtual or hybrid-only by state.

(Color coding added by me. Red=Republican governor.)

Read 4 tweets

Phil Kerpen

@kerpen

2 May

https://twitter.com/TracyBethHoeg/status/1388638964840493056

Biden's CDC not only distorted and overruled their own science (including Dr. Hoeg's Wisconsin study), but actually allowed teachers unions to write key language in the CDC schools guidance contrary to the agency's own science. This is pure corruption.

https://twitter.com/TracyBethHoeg/status/1388638964840493056

https://twitter.com/AmerAcadPeds/status/1281566457529356288

Also an eerie echo of what the unions did in July 2020, when they got the American Academy of Pediatrics to reverse their science-based recommendations that all schools open in a joint political statement.

https://twitter.com/AmerAcadPeds/status/1281566457529356288

It's ugly but I get why the union does this stuff. Why don't CDC and AAP care about kids though?

Read 4 tweets

Phil Kerpen

@kerpen

2 May

That DC mask order exempting full vaxed lasted only one day.
coronavirus.dc.gov/sites/default/…

Wonder if it reflected the expected Biden admin action post 100 day mask challenge before the White House called a different play?

@MayorBowser

Even crazier, @MayorBowser made her outdoor mask mandate for unvaccinated *much worse than ever before*. Fleeting time language that was there from the original outdoor mask order to yesterday is gone.

What's the justification for THAT?

July 22, 2020
April 30, 2021
May 1, 2021

Read 4 tweets

Phil Kerpen

@kerpen

30 Apr

Friday Fluday Thread: Influenza-Like Illness Data for MMWR Week 16, ending April 24, 2021

United States Influenza testing, MMWR week 16.

CDC flu view. cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…

2016 to 2019 4-year average: 1,759 cases; 10.67% positive
2020: 67; 0.61%
2021: 20; 0.07%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…