Retail individual investors are the biggest player in our markets. Not FIIs, and not mutual funds. Look at the equity market (non derivative). (Thread)
45% of India's stock market volumes are from retail investors. Up from 33% in 2016.
FIIs went from 23% down to 11%. Domestic institutions at 7%.
And look at the index futures market:
Individuals do 39% of index futures. FIIs merely 15%.
Domestic institutions are 1% - Rest is mostly prop books of brokers.
In index options, prop books dominate at 39%, but retail's gone up from 22% to 32%. FIIs only 16%.
Even in Interest Rate futures (!!) retail seems to have suddenly gone to 14% of the market:
In essence, the market is largely traded by retail investors. Domesticmutual funds are a tiny part of the game. But here's a statistic that will shock you further.
Despite now having 45% of the trading volumes of the market, retail stock ownership has been flat the last three years, at only 18% of non-promoter shares ("float")
FIIs own 43%, Domestic MFs own 15%. Insurers and others have actually reduced their ownership as a %.
And then, from 2001, when promoters owned 40% of the market, now they own 50%.
FIIs went from under 10% to 21%.
Retail investors fell from 18% to 9%.
Looks like foreign investors (and domestic mutual funds) don't trade that much but are continuously increasing their marketshare of ownership.
Just as the rupee crosses 90, let’s look at the Current Account Deficit for the Sep 2025 qtr.
CAD came in at $12 billion. This isn’t much, really, given :
- The US hit us with 50% tariffs in the quarter
- Huge FPI and FDI outflows from equity markets continued.
The big culprit, really, was Gold.
India saw $19bn of gold purchased in the Sep quarter. This is normal as it was about $20bn last year (Sep qtr) as well - usually a Diwali thingy.
In fact because of gold, the Sep 2024 (last year) quarter was a $16 bn deficit.
Gold isn’t, in my head, a current account item. Gold is something that is largely used for investing. Like when you buy a US company’s stock for investment.
Such investments belong in the "financial account" not a current account, like FDI/FPI.
We are relatively irrelevant in the trade world for large countries. And what we produce for export, mostly, seems to be easily replaceable as they are commodities, like steel or iron ore or tshirts or what not.
This is the reality. We were never china+1. Maybe china+0.05.
We are big because we are a consumer, not because we produce. We depend on other countries for our consumption and the little that we produce.
We can either dial up our exports or push for more domestic production. The first is useless, other countries can always arm twist.
To domestically produce, we need to remove the extreme rent seeking requirements of environmental overreach, unnecessary labour laws, high cost of capital, a freer rupee etc. this will still take a decade, but what better time than now to start?
For June 2025, Inflation falls to 2.1% , the lowest since 2019. This is a remarkably low number, but there is something that makes me uncomfortable.
Compared to last year, we may be low enough, but there's a base effect because inflation went up big last year. The current year seems very nice.
But there's still something more.
Food as it turns out is in a disinflationary move - and food is 50% of the index. Fuel too, not too much of a change. The big deal is "Personal Care" - which is up nearly 15%!
What is FDI? It's a foreign entity buying equity into an Indian company. Now you have FPI, which is portfolio investments by people like hedge funds and index funds and all that, into Indian listed companies. That is not fdi.
When suzuki bought shares in Maruti, it was FDI.
When a VC invests from a foreign entity into an Indian co, it's FDI. When Amazon US funds losses of its Indian entity, it probably brings in equity (since taking debt from abroad is a larger painnnnnn) as FDI.
Most gccs though will just do transfer pricing for their india ops i.e JP Morgan usa will pay jp morgan India a few for the back end ops, so that is revenue for the Indian firm, not equity, and that is not fdi.
Personal loans by banks (marketshare):
- Housing loans still dominate (52%)
- Education has halved marketshare (now 2.4%)
- Vehicle loans at 10%
- Unsecured personal loans rises to 29% marketshare
- Credit card usage is rising
We now have the split by gender (male/female) and that's throwing some interesting changes in the last decade.
Women are now 40% of all education loans from banks. This is excellent news.
But sadly, most of even this growth is not due to a larger number of women taking education loans. It's that the loans are much more. From 2.2 lakh per account to 6.3 lakh, though the number of accounts is the same (8 lakh) after a big dip during covid.
India's current account deficit is only $11 bn in the Oct-Dec quarter. For FY2024-25 it's only $37 billion. This is good; the rupee fell, but the problem was FPI flows and speculatory rupee trade, not fundamental trade flows.
Thread: 🧵
Note that in the previous quarter, the deficit was $16 bn. It was announced as $11bn and has now been revised UPWARDS by $5bn. So these figures can be revised.
We import a lot of gold. Last quarter too, we imported $19bn worth, but that is hardly a "current account item" in my book. It's a financial import. So if we look at the deficit net of gold, we have a $8bn surplus!