Retail individual investors are the biggest player in our markets. Not FIIs, and not mutual funds. Look at the equity market (non derivative). (Thread)
45% of India's stock market volumes are from retail investors. Up from 33% in 2016.
FIIs went from 23% down to 11%. Domestic institutions at 7%.
And look at the index futures market:
Individuals do 39% of index futures. FIIs merely 15%.
Domestic institutions are 1% - Rest is mostly prop books of brokers.
In index options, prop books dominate at 39%, but retail's gone up from 22% to 32%. FIIs only 16%.
Even in Interest Rate futures (!!) retail seems to have suddenly gone to 14% of the market:
In essence, the market is largely traded by retail investors. Domesticmutual funds are a tiny part of the game. But here's a statistic that will shock you further.
Despite now having 45% of the trading volumes of the market, retail stock ownership has been flat the last three years, at only 18% of non-promoter shares ("float")
FIIs own 43%, Domestic MFs own 15%. Insurers and others have actually reduced their ownership as a %.
And then, from 2001, when promoters owned 40% of the market, now they own 50%.
FIIs went from under 10% to 21%.
Retail investors fell from 18% to 9%.
Looks like foreign investors (and domestic mutual funds) don't trade that much but are continuously increasing their marketshare of ownership.
Personal loans by banks (marketshare):
- Housing loans still dominate (52%)
- Education has halved marketshare (now 2.4%)
- Vehicle loans at 10%
- Unsecured personal loans rises to 29% marketshare
- Credit card usage is rising
We now have the split by gender (male/female) and that's throwing some interesting changes in the last decade.
Women are now 40% of all education loans from banks. This is excellent news.
But sadly, most of even this growth is not due to a larger number of women taking education loans. It's that the loans are much more. From 2.2 lakh per account to 6.3 lakh, though the number of accounts is the same (8 lakh) after a big dip during covid.
India's current account deficit is only $11 bn in the Oct-Dec quarter. For FY2024-25 it's only $37 billion. This is good; the rupee fell, but the problem was FPI flows and speculatory rupee trade, not fundamental trade flows.
Thread: 🧵
Note that in the previous quarter, the deficit was $16 bn. It was announced as $11bn and has now been revised UPWARDS by $5bn. So these figures can be revised.
We import a lot of gold. Last quarter too, we imported $19bn worth, but that is hardly a "current account item" in my book. It's a financial import. So if we look at the deficit net of gold, we have a $8bn surplus!
Interesting move in the Vodafone Idea game - the government will convert about 37,000 cr. of debt into equity - buying about 3700 cr. of shares at Rs. 10 each.
Since its your money as a taxpayer, you will rightfully ask, but hello, aren't the shares at Rs. 6.80 in the market?
Well, of course, but there is a rule that you cannot issue shares below "par" so we have to cough up 50% more.
Does this help Vodafone idea? There is a song, "Doobne waale ko tinke ka sahaara hi bahut" (To a drowning man, even a twig is a saviour". This song has no idea about drowning men, but Idea now has a twig.
It's a twig. Vodafone Idea owes the government a ludicrous 210,000 cr. Of which it will only reduce the debt by 37,000 cr. now.
And there is no fresh money coming in. So everyone is getting diluted just like that.
Gold bonds wise - the worry isn't that the government didnt hedge the gold, the worry really is that they didn't do enough of it to change any imports at all. In fact they raised the duty on gold, making gold even more expensive!
The idea of the SGB was that if you only cared about it as a financial asset, then you could just buy an SGB. The lower interest of 2.5% (versus typical bond issues of 8%+) would help the government raise funds at lower interest and hopefully, reduce imports.
Gold imports in USD terms is about $50bn a year. It was $34bn in FY 2015. So about 50% up in 10 years, which isn't big at all in terms of value, less than 5% a year in dollar terms but meaningful in rupee terms with both duty and USDINR going up.