Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
May 4, 2021 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Retail individual investors are the biggest player in our markets. Not FIIs, and not mutual funds. Look at the equity market (non derivative). (Thread)
45% of India's stock market volumes are from retail investors. Up from 33% in 2016.

FIIs went from 23% down to 11%. Domestic institutions at 7%.

And look at the index futures market:
Individuals do 39% of index futures. FIIs merely 15%.
Domestic institutions are 1% - Rest is mostly prop books of brokers.

In index options, prop books dominate at 39%, but retail's gone up from 22% to 32%. FIIs only 16%.
Even in Interest Rate futures (!!) retail seems to have suddenly gone to 14% of the market:
In essence, the market is largely traded by retail investors. Domesticmutual funds are a tiny part of the game. But here's a statistic that will shock you further.
Despite now having 45% of the trading volumes of the market, retail stock ownership has been flat the last three years, at only 18% of non-promoter shares ("float")

FIIs own 43%, Domestic MFs own 15%. Insurers and others have actually reduced their ownership as a %.
And then, from 2001, when promoters owned 40% of the market, now they own 50%.

FIIs went from under 10% to 21%.

Retail investors fell from 18% to 9%.
Looks like foreign investors (and domestic mutual funds) don't trade that much but are continuously increasing their marketshare of ownership.

Retail is just the opposite!
Source: NSE's awesome market pulse letter at: static.nseindia.com//s3fs-public/i…

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More from @deepakshenoy

Jul 23
#Budget2024 Thread starts here. Follow for bad jokes, "are you not entertained" kind of commentary, and possibly some information on the actual budget.

Previous thread on interim budget here: x.com/i/bookmarks/17…
We'll start strong: India is in the strongest possible place on the fiscal front, with super tax collections, an extra RBI dividend and potential non-tax revenues looking good.

Let's see how it will be used.
Its gonna start soon. There is a lot of hindi from the speaker, who is, uhm, speaking.
Read 69 tweets
May 22
The RBI gives 210,000 cr. to the government as dividend. This is massive, and this is after increasing the RBI buffers to the maximum permissible (I think they are wayyy too high even before this)

The budget had only 102,000 cr. in it, so it's pretty big, this number.
Image
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We wrote about this @capitalmind_in in 2018 and the exact nuances of how insanely much that number was, that RBI has in "excess". At that time, we estimated that they had over 300,000 cr. in excess, and today that number is way higher. (Links later) Image
I really really really hope they reduce taxes. They have way too much money already and are desperately trying to buy back bonds early, but not really succeeding. A little relief in personal taxation or GST would be good.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 20
Lousy results by HDFC Bank. Ignore the 38% growth (they conveniently forgot that they merged with HDFC in July last year) - the real profit growth is just 3%. Even that is probably because of Credila (they got a pretax profit of some 7000 cr. because of it) Discl: Small pos. Image
Credila was sold off in 2024 March, which pretty much made their bottomline. They also had an extra floating provision of 10,900 cr. (which would have brought down the profit) and that's likely because they see more issues in retail. Image
Oh, no tax this quarter - they got a favourable order of 6000 cr. and wrote back provisions of 3000 cr.

These two: another 9000 cr. that works in their favour. And yet, a profit growth of just 3%. It's a little strange why 10,000+ cr. of floating provisions were taken then.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 27
If you wonder why RBI's all antsy about growth of the credit ecosystem, it's because things are looking really hot here:

The credit/deposit ratio is at the highest it's ever been. Banks have to put about 18% of Deposits in GSecs and 4.5% in CRR.

This means of every 100 rs. Deposit they can only lend out Rs. 77.5. Banks will have their own capital - between Rs. 10 and Rs. 15 for every Rs. 100 in lending so they can lend out as much as 88 also. It appears that banks are lending as much as they can and some more.

This is a little bit of a problem because the areas you see where the C/D ratio is above SLR/CRR limits? Those periods correspond to high inflation; and it appears we are back.

I should write a more detailed piece on this, but I'll start this way: it should not surprise us that banks aren't doing that well. And given that Indian government bonds will have more demand from foreigners, expect this ratio to stay high at least this year.Image
Oh, and deposit growth is only around 13%, versus credit growth of 19%.

Deposit rates - for relatively shorter terms like a month or two - are better with money market/liquid funds. Corporates have slowly figured this out, at least the large ones. Individuals will. Image
But, to be fair, banks raise money using bonds and CDs, and thus the C/D ratio should include such liabilities separately. RBI will hopefully give us those aggregate pieces of data too.

Currently HDFC's large bond issuances - probably 2-3 lakh crore - skews it a bit.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 12, 2023
Inflation goes up mildly to 5.55% as food inflation shows its ugly head again. Last year though, there was a dip at this time, so that's a bit of a base effect also. Image
As you can see, closer, here: Image
Everything else moderated, inflation wise. Only food went up. and that's a problem, since elections are on their way. No wonder the govt wants to cut fuel prices, to compensate. Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 16, 2023
RBI increases risk weights for banks and NBFCs. This is pretty big!

1) All consumer credit (other than housing, vehicle, gold, edu and MFI loans) see an increase in risk weight to 125% from 100%

What this means is:
In effect, if a bank has 20% CAR for personal loans (unsecured) or loan against fd/stocks, then it's lent Rs. 100 for Rs. 20 in capital. Now that Rs. 100 will be counted as Rs. 125 (125% risk weight) so the CAR falls to 16%.

Banks and NBFCs will now see much lower CARs.
2) NBFC loans will also see an increase of risk weight to 125%. This affects most consumer lending NBFCs and nearly all fintech players.

3) Credit card receivables for banks RW up to 150% (from 125%) and for the two nbfcs that can issue credit cards it's up to 125% from 100%
Read 15 tweets

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