Here is the recent data from England from COG (genetics consortium for covid)
2.This includes data from travellers & surge testing
BUT overall picture is the same as for community cases from Sanger yesterday.
B1617 growing very fast & has overtaken all other variants of concern / under investigation (except B117 ("Kent") which is still >90% of cases).
3.Look at the number each week, you can see that the other main variants are hardly growing. B117 cases ("Kent") are also going down (which is why our overall case numbers are falling).
But this variant, B1617 ("India"), is still shooting up.
4.Digging into its subtypes, one in particular stands out: B.1617.2.
This is the one *without* the E484Q mutation. It is *also* the sub-strain that is now dominating India.
5.Who knows why it's outcompeting its variant siblings... (I don't anyway). Perhaps the prelim data from @GuptaR_lab showing that the "E484Q"+"L452R" mutations didn't seem to confer any advantage over just "L452R" provides a clue?
6.But basically - we've seen this characteristic spread in India, we are seeing it in the COG data (all England data - tweet 4 above) and we are seeing it in the Sanger data (just community cases).
Sanger chart is below
7. Do we have definitive evidence that B1617.2 is more transmissible? No
But honestly I think canaries are chirping - we know it's in the community (from Sanger) and we should act to contain right now while numbers manageable. /END
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🧵War causes direct civilian deaths but also indirect deaths over the following years.
Recent paper estimates eventual total direct & indirect deaths in Gaza attributable to the war - 10% of entire pop'n.
I want to explain these estimates and why deaths must be counted. 1/13
Why count casualties from war anyway? For moral, legal and strategic reasons.
1 - owe it to those who have died
2 - International law says must count & identify dead as far as possible
3 - monitor progress of war & learn from tactics
2/13
There are direct and indirect casualties of war. Direct deaths include those who killed by fighting or bombs.
Indirect deaths are those that die when they would otherwise have lived because of one or more of: lack of food, healthcare, housing, sanitation, income, hope. 3/13
THREAD: the summer Covid wave in the UK continues.
Basically, there is a LOT of Covid around and not a lot of other respiratory viruses.
If you have cold or flu symptoms, it's probably Covid.
The latest hospital data from England shows steady, quite high levels. 1/8
But admissions don't tell us how much virus is circulating more generally. The best (but imperfect) measure we have is wasterwater measurements, and only in Scotland and not England.
Scotland's wastewater is showing a huge July peak - highest since Omicron's 1st yr in 2022 2/8
Because different people shed different amounts of virus and variants can matter too, you can't for sure infer how many people were infected between different wasterwater peaks. BUT given the size, I'd say it's pretty likely this is the largest peak since 2022 in Scotland 3/8
Quick thread on current Covid situation in England and Long Covid.
I have Thoughts about the Inquiry Report published yesterday but am still trying to organise them.
TLDR: high Covid levels remain, Long Covid remains 1/11
This wave is not over. While the number of admissions with Covid remains lower than the autumn/winter waves, it has now remained highsh for several weeks.
This means there are a lot of people out there getting sick - and having their work, plans and holidays disrupted. 2/11
Scottish wastewater data to 9 July shows a sharp decrease, suggesting that prevalence might be on its way down.
Obviously Scotland and England can have different dynamics, but it’s the best we’ve got as long as England refuses to analyse its own wastwater. 3/11
THREAD: Given tomorrow's election, I've been thinking about our nation's (poor) health, the wider determinants of health and how these have worsened and what it means for policy....
TLDR: worrying only about NHS & social care is missing the point
let's dive in... 1/25
The UK has a health problem. After steady gains in life expectancy for decades, it flatlined during the austerity years and fell for the first time this century with the Covid pandemic.
The number of people out of work for long term sickness is near record levels. 2/25
There are huge inequalities between rich & poor. Boys born in the most deprived areas can expect to die almost 10 years earlier than their peers in the least deprived areas.
Even worse, they can expect to spend 18 fewer years of their life in good health (52 vs 70 years) 3/25