The energy sector is the largest in terms of GHG emissions.
The changes from 1990 to 2019 were:
* Energy industries: -41%
* Manufacturing: -41%
* Transport: +20%
* Other (buildings, etc): -27%
* Fugitive: solid -73%, oil/gas -46%
Transport is a problem...
2/
Considering only CO₂ emissions, emissions are nearly totally dominated by energy (see previous tweet for details), with some emissions from industrial processes (cement, etc) and LULUCF as a sink.
3/
CH₄ emissions have gone down 40% from 1990 to 2019, by sector:
* Energy: -61%
* Agriculture: -21%
* Waste: -46%
This shows that big reductions can be made for CH₄, it is more than burning cows...
4/
N₂O emissions have gone down 37% from 1990 to 2019, by sector:
* Energy -5%
* Industry: -90%
* Agriculture: -19%
* Waste: +12%
* LULUCF: +4%
Again, N₂O reductions can be made, particularly in industry. It is not just agriculture...
5/
Finally, the most complex sector, LULUCF, where there are both emissions & removals.
The biggest removals are from forests that remain forests (managed forests). Some of this will be management, some will be CO₂ fertilisation & climate (ie, luck).
Lots of other dynamics...
6/
That was the EU27+UK GHG emissions in a nutshell.
Lots more data to dig into, this is just a summary found in the UNFCCC submitted emission inventories. And there are about 40 countries with this data (Annex I).
Let me know what data you would like to see...
7/7
*burping...
My apologies for burning the cows in tweet 4, I only meant them to burp...
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I am still pondering over 2023 & El Nino. Is 2023 an (unusual) outlier or not?
Looking at anomaly in 2023 relative to the trendline (loess 50 year window), without (left) & with (right) annualised ENSO lags, then 2023 is rather mundane.
1/
When looking at the temperature change relative to the previous year, without (left) & with (right) annualised ENSO lags, then 2023 is more unusual depending on the lag.
If 2023 is unusual, then it could be equally explained by 2022 being low (rather than 2023 being high).
2/
There are numerous ways to consider ENSO. I have used annualised indexes, & various lags can be included. It is also possible to take sub-annual indexes (eg, several months), & again, various lags.
What is statistically best? I presume there is a paper on this.
I started to take an interest in the 2023 temperature increase...
The first plot I did, to my surprise, seems to suggest that 2023 is not unusual at all (given El Nino).
Why?
1/
It all depends on how you slice the data. The previous figure was the anomaly relative to a trend (loess with 50 year window).
If I plot the change from the previous year (delta T), then 2023 is more unusual. Though, still, is it 2023 that is unusual, or 2022, or 2016, or?
2/
The loess trend changes shape with the data, making the 2023 anomaly smaller. It is also possible to use a linear trend, making the 2023 anomaly larger.
Comparing the anomaly to a linear trend will make 2023 more important (than if loess is used).
I am not so convinced. The land sink has a lot of variability, mainly due to El Nino, and an El Nino overlapped 2023. So we expect a lower land sink in 2023.
(My estimate assumes the ocean sink was average).
1/
Was 2023 an El Nino year? That is not so obvious...
How does one average the monthly sea surface data to an annual value El Nino index? How does one account for the lag between El Nino and the change in atmospheric CO2 growth?
There is no unique answer to this.
2/
This figure shows the monthly El Nino index annualised with different time lags. 2023 is an El Nino or La Nina, depending on how you average!
@richardabetts & @chrisd_jones use a 9 month lag in their work (which means 2023 was a La Nina)!
Record high emissions means record high radiative forcing.
We have you covered, we also include aerosols (SO2, etc) & have done so for decades. Also shipping!
Short-lived aerosols are important, but should not distract from the drivers of change: greenhouse gas emissions!
2/
Most of the energy put into the system ends in the ocean (90%), so the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) has been increasing along with emissions and radiative forcing.
This also means the Earth Energy Imbalance is also increasing.