Glen Peters Profile picture
May 5, 2021 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
EU27+UK GHG emissions (including LULUCF) have declined 30% from 1990 to 2019.

By changes by sector were:
* Energy: -28%
* Industry: -30%
* Agriculture: -20%
* Waste: -44%
* LULUCF: +37% (stronger sink)

1/
The energy sector is the largest in terms of GHG emissions.

The changes from 1990 to 2019 were:
* Energy industries: -41%
* Manufacturing: -41%
* Transport: +20%
* Other (buildings, etc): -27%
* Fugitive: solid -73%, oil/gas -46%

Transport is a problem...

2/
Considering only CO₂ emissions, emissions are nearly totally dominated by energy (see previous tweet for details), with some emissions from industrial processes (cement, etc) and LULUCF as a sink.

3/
CH₄ emissions have gone down 40% from 1990 to 2019, by sector:
* Energy: -61%
* Agriculture: -21%
* Waste: -46%

This shows that big reductions can be made for CH₄, it is more than burning cows...

4/
N₂O emissions have gone down 37% from 1990 to 2019, by sector:
* Energy -5%
* Industry: -90%
* Agriculture: -19%
* Waste: +12%
* LULUCF: +4%

Again, N₂O reductions can be made, particularly in industry. It is not just agriculture...

5/
Finally, the most complex sector, LULUCF, where there are both emissions & removals.

The biggest removals are from forests that remain forests (managed forests). Some of this will be management, some will be CO₂ fertilisation & climate (ie, luck).

Lots of other dynamics...

6/
That was the EU27+UK GHG emissions in a nutshell.

Lots more data to dig into, this is just a summary found in the UNFCCC submitted emission inventories. And there are about 40 countries with this data (Annex I).

Let me know what data you would like to see...

7/7
*burping...
My apologies for burning the cows in tweet 4, I only meant them to burp...

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More from @Peters_Glen

May 9
"Implemented policies result in projected emissions that lead to warming of 3.2°C, with a range of 2.2°C to 3.5°C (medium confidence)"

According to the landmark, widely reported IPCC Synthesis Report published in 2023.


1/ ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
Image
If you are surprised by this figure, where the median is 2.5°C (not 3.2°C), then I am curious why you think scientists are so optimistic...

The survey reflects more or less what scientists have been saying for years?



2/ theguardian.com/environment/ar…
Image
This question is ambiguous: "How high above pre-industrial levels do you think average global temperature will rise between now and 2100?"
* ...pre-industrial... between "now and 2100"?
* Where we are currently heading or where we could head? This is largely a policy question?
3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 12
There is a very strong linear relationship between atmospheric CO2 (concentration) and cumulative CO2 emissions.

In the last days, quite a few have been commenting there are feedbacks kicking in.

A thread...

1/ Image
If atmospheric CO2 is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, then the annual change in atmospheric CO2 is proportional to annual CO2 emissions.

The ratio of the two is the 'airborne fraction', which is rather constant. Maybe a slight increase in trend lately, maybe...

2/ Image
Since emissions have leveled out in the last decade, one would expect therefore that the atmospheric increase has leveled out.

The concentration data is noisy, and it has leveled out or not depending on how it is smoothed! (look at last 10 years).

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 9
Is the atmospheric growth rate of CO2 slowing down?

Total CO2 emissions have gone from 2%/yr growth (2000s) to 0%/yr (2010s).

Do we see that change in the atmosphere?

It is hard to answer 🧵



1/ rdcu.be/buifD
Image
I can make this figure incredibly complex by adjusting for ENSO (red dots and line).

We know the response of atmospheric CO2 to El Niño is lagged. This figure shows a 9 month lag, as used by Betts & Jones in their projection

But, 2023 is a La Niña?

2/ metoffice.gov.uk/research/clima…
Image
The same figure with a three month lag says 2023 is a El Niño.

In either case, adjusting the growth rate for ENSO makes it look like the atmospheric CO2 growth rate is maintained, and not slowing down.

This is worrying. It should be slowing down...

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 15, 2023
One of the key arguments that Norway uses to continue oil & gas developments, is that under BAU it is expected that oil & gas production will decline in line with <2°C scenarios, even with continued investment.

Let's look closer at these projections & reality...

1/ Image
Here is the projections from the 2003 report from the petroleum agency.

In reality (tweet 1) there was a dip around 2010, but production is now up around 250 million cubic again.

The forecast was totally & utterly WRONG!

2/ Image
In 2011 there was a forecast for an increase in production to 2020, but then a decline. This is probably since they started to put the Johan Sverdrup field on the books.

The increase in production was way too low, again, they got it wrong.

3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Dec 5, 2023
📢Global Carbon Budget 2023📢

Despite record growth in clean energy, global fossil CO2 emissions are expected to grow 1.1% [0-2.1%] in 2023.

Strong policies are needed to ensure fossil fuels decline as clean energy grows!



1/ essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/53…
Image
CO2 emissions by fossil fuel:
* We thought coal peaked in 2014. No, & up another 1.1% in 2023
* Oil up 1.5%, on the back of a 28% increase in international aviation & China, but oil remains below 2019 level. 🤞
* Has the golden age of gas come to an end thanks to Russia?

2/ Image
By top emitters:
* China up 4.0% & a peak this year would be a surprise
*US down 3.0%, with coal at 1903 levels
* India up 8.2%, with fossil CO2 clearly above the EU27
* EU27, down 7.4% with drops in all fuels
* Bunkers, up 11.9% due to exploding international aviation

3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Nov 3, 2023
Is the new @DrJamesEHansen et al article an outlier, or rather mainstream?

At least in terms of the key headline numbers, it seems rather mainstream, particularly if you remember most headline key numbers have quite some uncertainty!



🧵1/ academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3…
Image
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of 4.8°C ± 1.2°C

IPCC best estimate 3°C
IPCC likely range: 2.5-4°C
IPCC very likely range: 2-5°C

Sure, Hansen et al are in the high end, but so are many others.

More details:

2/
Image
"...global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s & 2°C before 2050"

Here is the global warming from "Current Policies" in IPCC AR6 WGIII. Sorry folks, but Hansen is actually conservative.

Also, cast your eyes to 2020-2030: WARMING ACCELERATES

3/ Image
Read 7 tweets

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