Thread by @paterno_II

WHY THE HAGUE RULING MATTERS EVEN WITHOUT INTERNATIONAL POLICE
(a thread)

President Rodrigo Duterte claimed on May 5 that the Hague ruling vs China is "useless" because no one can "enforce it."

True, there is NO international police to enforce it. But... @rapplerdotcom

International law is different from domestic law, where police can enforce court rulings. Surely we cannot see Xi Jinping in handcuffs over the Hague ruling.

But international law PRESSURES states to comply, or else they will be viewed as international outlaws @rapplerdotcom

So what if they're viewed as international outlaws? Well, what country wants to do business or forge alliances with gangsters?

Experts, in fact, say that states comply with international rulings 95% of the time. Because at stake is POWER and MONEY @rapplerdotcom

In 2018, I sat down for a one-on-one #RapplerTalk interview with Judge Stanislaw Pawlak, one of the 5 judges in the Philippines' case against China, while he was visiting Manila.

Pawlak explained why the Hague ruling is not "useless": rappler.com/nation/questio… @rapplerdotcom

PAWLAK: Yes. But international law is based mosty on reciprocity.

RAPPLER: What does that mean?

PAWLAK: It means that if you are doing something wrong, you will be not accepted. But if you are doing good things, the other party should do the same.

@rapplerdotcom

In our interview, Judge Stanislaw Pawlak said, "In the long run, I think economic interests, security interests, will prevail.... It's in the interest also of China to be accepted as a good neighbor and also to have good trade with neighbors." @rapplerdotcom

I also asked Judge Stanislaw Pawlak, one of the 5 judges in the Philippines' case against China, about the "just a piece of paper" question.

Here's how he responded @rapplerdotcom

Here is the part of the #RapplerTalk interview where I asked Judge Stanislaw Pawlak about claims (shared by the likes of President Duterte) that the Hague ruling is "useless" because there is no international police to enforce it.

WATCH: @rapplerdotcom

I also asked our lead counsel vs China, Paul Reichler, about enforcing the Hague ruling. He says the Philippines should "join forces" with other states. "I think China is so big and so powerful that it can only be confronted by a group of states acting together." @rapplerdotcom

Paul Reichler (2019): "How do you get a big and powerful state to comply with its obligations especially if you are a much smaller and much less powerful state? It has to be by joining forces with other states that have similar interests... in pressuring China" @rapplerdotcom

RELATED STORY: rappler.com/nation/how-to-…

Paul Reichler, Philippines' lead counsel: "It will depend to a great extent on how vigorously all of the affected states, all of the states which have been prejudiced by the 9-dash line, assert their rights against China." @rapplerdotcom

Paul Reichler said it best in a 2013 forum: "There's a price to be paid for branding yourself as an international outlaw, as a state that doesn't respect, that doesn't comply with international law."

Read about it here: rappler.com/nation/philipp… @rapplerdotcom

IN SUMMARY: Despite the absence of an international police, the Hague ruling matters because it can pressure China to behave – as long as the Philippines uses the ruling as leverage and urges other countries to do the same.

The first step? DON'T. BE. DEFEATIST. @rapplerdotcom

POST-SCRIPT: But you know what's funny? In 2017, the United States, Australia, and Japan even had to nudge the Philippines to follow the ruling it won 🤦

READ: rappler.com/world/asia-pac… @rapplerdotcom