Ben Chu Profile picture
May 6, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
As expected, no change in Bank of England rates or QE target - but MPC has decided to slow the rate of its asset purchases so they stretch out to the end of the year

bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/fi…
MPC now sees UK economy running 0.5% of GDP above capacity by Q2 2022 (up from 0.25% previously) - a hawkish signal
Sterling up in wake of MPC forecast - suggests a hawkish interpretation
This (pink line) shows the improved GDP growth forecast since February's projection from the Bank
Biggest forecasting shift since February is the MPC's unemployment projection

Previously the Bank projected a 7.7% jobless rate in Q2 2021 - now it expects a peak of just 5.2% this year
...striking difference between the market implied path of interest rates now relative to February's MPC report - traders seem to have now buried expectations of negative interest rates

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More from @BenChu_

Oct 17
The Times report, apparently reflecting HMT thinkining, suggests raising Capital Gains Tax on second homes would lose the Treasury money...

thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar…
The report cites the scoring of the March 2024 Budget's cut in the rate... Image
But it's worth noting that the Treasury scorecard from the March Budget makes it clear that the revenue gain is a purely short term boost due to people bringing forward sales - by the end of the forecast period there's essentially no impact on revenues in either direction... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65e8578e…Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 24
🏘️👷🧱Residential planning permissions in England hit a new record low in the second quarter of 2024 - with just 7,609 projects granted approval by local councils.

What does that mean for the Government’s house building targets?

Thread...🧵1/14 Image
Labour’s manifesto promised 1.5m net additional dwellings in England over this Parliament, equivalent to 300k a year.

A considerable step up from what’s currently being delivered.

The most recent full financial year data for 2022-23 shows 234k created - a deficit of 66k...2/14 Image
So the fact Labour inherits a record low number of planning approvals is clearly not a strong base to deliver that, to put it mildly.

Starmer has pledged to take on so-called “NIMBY” activists opposing new housing developments...3/14 bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-pol…
Read 15 tweets
Sep 23
The Chancellor Rachel Reeves on @BBCr4today this morning was pressed about what her Labour Conference pledge of "no return to austerity" means and would only say "there will not be real terms cuts to government spending"...1/5
But this is the same fiscal position as was outlined in Jeremy Hunt's March 2024 Budget - which pencillled in 1% per year real terms increases in overall spending from 2025-26...2/5
And the implications of that *overall* public spending envelope for *unprotected* departments - including justice and local government was this - a further 10% fall in real terms per capita budgets according to @resfoundation...3/5 resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/20…
Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 12
This is probably the most important projection in the latest UK fiscal risks report from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

It shows health spending rising by around 1% of GDP every decade...🧵1/8 obr.uk/frs/fiscal-ris…
Image
Which would mean health likely taking an ever larger share of total government spending - this is what Health Secretary @wesstreeting means when he talks about the danger of the UK becoming "an NHS with a country attached"...2/8 Image
The @OBR_UK breaks down what's driving the projected 3% year inflation adjusted annual increase on state health spending over the coming decades.

And it's not all about the commonly cited culprits of an ageing population (orange bars) or chronic worse health (green bars)...3/8 Image
Read 9 tweets
Sep 10
Just how many pensioners will the Government’s plan to means test the Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) affect?

And how many poor pensioners will it impact?

There’s been a lot of confusing numbers flying around so let’s break it down...1/9

🧵
Let’s start with the total number of pensioners.

There are roughly 12 million people above the state pension age in the UK...2/9 Image
At the time of the March budget, 10.8 million of these were projected to receive WFPs in 2024-25 at a total cost to the taxpayer of £1.4bn.

These two figures are pretty similar because this is a universal benefit, paid alongside the state pension...3/9 Image
Read 11 tweets
Jul 16
Five key crises for the Government.

And why what's NOT in the #KingsSpeech tomorrow could be as signficant as what is...

🧵
Before the election was called Labour warned, via the @FinancialTimes, of a series of crises that they would likely inherit.

The items on what was referred to as a "sh*t list" have not got any less urgent....
ft.com/content/b95976…
First, decisions on public sector pay for 2024-25 have to be taken by the end of this month.

The @TheIFS estimates that to stop the gap between public sector and private sector pay getting worse the Government would have to find another £7bn/year... ft.com/content/bee669…
Image
Read 14 tweets

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