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Economics Editor @bbcnewsnight | Twitter pic by @stan_chow I
sl-xf Profile picture John Smith🗽ULEZ makes Labour unelectable Profile picture 4 subscribed
Mar 5 25 tweets 7 min read
Does the Office for Budget Responsibility - @OBR_UK - have too much influence over government economic policymaking?

A thread 🧵

1/25 Ahead of this Budget there’s been swelling frustration in some parts of the Conservative Party and media towards the Office for Budget Responsibility for supposedly deciding how much money is available to the Chancellor.

2/25
Feb 27 17 tweets 4 min read
Why have older workers left the UK workforce?

Why does it matter?

And how do we get them back?

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Thread 🧵

1/16 Since the pandemic there’s been concerning increase in economic inactivity among people of working age (16 and 64) of 650,000.

(And note that inactivity does not mean unemployed - it means people who are not, for various reasons, currently actively looking for a job.)

2/16 Image
Dec 13, 2023 14 tweets 4 min read
What's happening to people's mental health and what are the implications for the economy and the public finances?

A thread...1/14 ...First the broad economic context.

There's been a big jump in the numbers of working age people who are economically inactive, citing long-term sickness...2/14 Image
Dec 5, 2023 8 tweets 2 min read
📉📈⁉️ Is the UK actually doing relatively well versus our peer economies?

Brief thread...🧵1/8 ...This was the claim from Jeremy Hunt yesterday at the @resfoundation/@CEP_LSE #economy2030 launch.

The Chancellor observed the UK economy has grown faster than faster than Germany and some others since 2010 - something he's said multiple times over the past year...2/8
Dec 1, 2023 17 tweets 5 min read
💵🔋🌞 Is Labour’s £28bn Green Prosperity Plan necessary for net zero...or fiscally irresponsible?

A thread…🧵1/ The latter is the claim made by Jeremy Hunt this week in The Times, where he says if Labour sticks to its net zero investment plans it would bust its own fiscal rules - or have to put up taxes to pay for them.

Is that credible?...2/

thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy…
Nov 28, 2023 14 tweets 4 min read
📈📉⁉️ Is the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasting that the UK economy will be smaller or larger by 2027 than it did previously?

A thread...🧵1/ ...In her response to the #AutumnStatement last week Labour’s shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves said:

“The economy is now forecast to be £40bn smaller by 2027 than the Chancellor said back in March.”...2/

Nov 14, 2023 12 tweets 3 min read
🚨NEW: What’s the true nature of the relationship between the Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich and the Russian President Vladimir Putin?

A thread🧵...1/ Image ...For 20 years Abramovich has sought to downplay the connection.

When he bought Chelsea football club in 2003 he said he had “no special relationship” with Putin...2/ ft.com/content/9b59de…
Sep 23, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
Some useful official statistics on inheritance tax here...

gov.uk/government/sta… ....In the 2020/21 tax year, 3.73% of UK deaths - 27,000 - resulted in an Inheritance Tax charge - less than 1 in 26... Image
Jul 11, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read
OK, this @hmtreasury tweet needs a little context...🧵 ...First, since 2010 the UK has had higher migration than other big European countries.

If we look at GDP per capita (so adjusting for the difference in population growth) the UK has not grown faster than Germany...
Jun 14, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
Jeremy Hunt advisor and former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Sushil Wadwhani says the Bank of England should "resist the siren voices" calling for a 0.5% rate hike... ...but still interest rates should rise further...
Jun 14, 2023 15 tweets 4 min read
What's going on with UK interest rates? 📈💵

And are we now being sucked back into an economic crisis we thought we’d escaped?

A thread...🧵1/ ...This is the chart which is fuelling the perception that we're back in the mire.

Two year UK sovereign market borrowing costs are now actually higher than they were in the wake of last Autumn's mini-Budget...2/ Image
Feb 9, 2023 25 tweets 7 min read
We’re told wholesale #energy prices are falling, which should bring our bills down.

Yet we’re also warned household #EnergyBills are going to spike by 40% in April & the gov is being called on to act.

How can we reconcile the two?

Feeling confused?

A thread for you...🧵1/ ...To understand what’s going on we need to go back to the design of Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) from last October...2/bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Dec 18, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Quick note nn this idea that the NHS Pay Review Body's recommendations on pay increases were reasonable at the time they were made, but were overtaken by adverse events such as the invasion of Ukraine etc... ...worth noting this paragraph below from the body's report when it was published in July - it was explicitly working on Bank of England projections of a 10% inflation rate in 2022... gov.uk/government/pub…
Nov 20, 2022 17 tweets 5 min read
How has the UK economy *really* performed relative to other G7 economies since 2010?

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A chart thread 🧵...1/ ...Some have been scratching their heads over Jeremy Hunt's recent claims the UK has experienced the third strongest growth in the G7 since 2010...2/
Nov 17, 2022 23 tweets 3 min read
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt kicks off #AutumnStatement

Says priorities are "stability, growth, public services"... ..."High inflation is the enemy of stability....hurts the poorest the most"...
Nov 14, 2022 18 tweets 7 min read
Are we potentially facing "Austerity 2.0" in the #AutumnStatement because of the fallout from the #MiniBudget?

Or is it because of economic forces beyond the UK, such as the energy crisis and rising *global* interest rates?

Explanatory chart thread 🧵...1/ ...To attempt an answer, go back to the last set of official forecasts we had from the @OBR_UK back in March.

The government was then projected to be borrowing around £32bn in 2026-27 (the final year of the forecast period) and to be *meeting* its fiscal rules...2/ Image
Nov 11, 2022 22 tweets 8 min read
The media is awash with talk of a “fiscal hole” that needs to be filled with tax rises/spending cuts in next week's #AutumnStatement.

But what is this "fiscal hole" & how worried should we be about it?

A thread... 🧵1/ ...The first thing to stress is that it’s NOT some kind of hard financial limit on government spending or borrowing, which, if breached, means disastrous things automatically happen...2/
Nov 8, 2022 8 tweets 3 min read
What does the latest data suggest about the impact of Brexit on UK trade?

🇬🇧🇪🇺🚛🛳️💵📉

Brief chart 🧵... ...The raw goods export data from the Office for National Statisics *suggests* a recovery.

After a sharp fall after the UK left the single market, volumes of exports and imports from the EU are now back *above* where they were before...
Oct 28, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
UPDATE on #AutumnStatement

No final decisions yet taken but #Newsnight understands it will likely...

- Target debt falling as share of GDP in 5 years' time (not 3 years, as per existing rule)... ...

- Cuts to departmental spending likely to be pencilled in for *after* the current Spending Review period ends in 2024/25 - though no compensation for departments for higher inflation *in* Spending Review period so de facto real terms cuts...
Oct 15, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read
"I don’t think we’re talking about austerity in the way we had it in 2010" said the new chancellor Jeremy Hunt this morning.

Is this right?

Brief thread 🧵1/ ...Well, we obviously don't yet know what the fiscal hole projected by the @OBR_UK will be.

And we don't know if there will be *more* tax U-turns or *other* tax rises.

But if we take the @TheIFS estimates of the fiscal hole of around £60bn...2/
Oct 14, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Hmm

30 year Gilt yields rising... Image ..10 year yields up... Image