The Times report, apparently reflecting HMT thinkining, suggests raising Capital Gains Tax on second homes would lose the Treasury money...

thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar… The report cites the scoring of the March 2024 Budget's cut in the rate...

🏘️👷🧱Residential planning permissions in England hit a new record low in the second quarter of 2024 - with just 7,609 projects granted approval by local councils.

What does that mean for the Government’s house building targets?

Thread...🧵1/14 Labour’s manifesto promised 1.5m net additional dwellings in England over this Parliament, equivalent to 300k a year.

A considerable step up from what’s currently being delivered.

The most recent full financial year data for 2022-23 shows 234k created - a deficit of 66k...2/14

The Chancellor Rachel Reeves on @BBCr4today this morning was pressed about what her Labour Conference pledge of "no return to austerity" means and would only say "there will not be real terms cuts to government spending"...1/5 But this is the same fiscal position as was outlined in Jeremy Hunt's March 2024 Budget - which pencillled in 1% per year real terms increases in overall spending from 2025-26...2/5

This is probably the most important projection in the latest UK fiscal risks report from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

It shows health spending rising by around 1% of GDP every decade...🧵1/8 obr.uk/frs/fiscal-ris…
Which would mean health likely taking an ever larger share of total government spending - this is what Health Secretary @wesstreeting means when he talks about the danger of the UK becoming "an NHS with a country attached"...2/8

Just how many pensioners will the Government’s plan to means test the Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) affect?

And how many poor pensioners will it impact?

There’s been a lot of confusing numbers flying around so let’s break it down...1/9

🧵 Let’s start with the total number of pensioners.

There are roughly 12 million people above the state pension age in the UK...2/9

Five key crises for the Government.

And why what's NOT in the #KingsSpeech tomorrow could be as signficant as what is...

🧵 Before the election was called Labour warned, via the @FinancialTimes, of a series of crises that they would likely inherit.

The items on what was referred to as a "sh*t list" have not got any less urgent....
ft.com/content/b95976…

The Treasury says the £7.3bn of the National Wealth Fund "will be allocated through the UK Infrastructure Bank so it can start being made immediately"...

https://twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/1810674259452190951

This is a bit different than was anticipated in the Labour manifesto, which suggested the money would be spent at a rate of around £1.5bn a year over the Parliament...

The Conservatives have released a host of adverts about the state pension on Facebook which we at #BBCVerify think are misleading.

Here's why...🧵 1/9 “Remember when Labour increased the state pension by only 75p?” asks the Tory video adverts, contrasting this with a claimed £3,700 increase since the Tories came into government in 2010...2/9

facebook.com/ads/library/?i…

The Green party (England and Wales) leader Adrian Ramsay told @BBCr4today:

“We would still be near the bottom off the European league in terms of tax base overall [if we implemented our proposed tax rises]”

Let's look at this...#BBCVerify OECD data shows tax as a share of GDP in 2021 was 33.5% - certainly below most big EU countries and the average of the EU14 (countries who were members of the EU prior to 2004)...

📊Here are four handy charts to put the economic record of this government in historical context as we head to the 2024 general election.

1) Average annual growth in GDP per capita between 2010 and 2024 has been the weakest of any government since the Second World War... 2) The record on average annual wage growth over that time has also been the weakest...

There was an odd claim this morning by Jeremy Hunt in his media round:

“Living standards have fallen by more [than the UK] in Germany, Austria, or Sweden”...

Brief 🧵... ...He didn't specify over what time period he was talking about, or what measure of living standards he was using, or why he'd selected those countries to compare...

What's happening with asylum claims in Ireland? 🇮🇪

Is there evidence of a spillover from the UK's Rwanda scheme?

What does the data suggest?

(Updated) thread 🧵 ...The context is some vivid suggestions that the numbers seeking asylum in Ireland are shooting up....

The Treasury is claiming that hitting the target of raising UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP in 2030 amounts to a "£75 billion increase".

How do they get to this £75bn number? 🤨

Thread...🧵1/9

https://x.com/hmtreasury/status/1782835257491829233

...First thing to note is that figure sounds odd given the March Budget documents suggest total defence spending in 2024-25 will £51.7bn

So would defence spending more than *double*?...2/9

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65e8578e…

Does the Office for Budget Responsibility - @OBR_UK - have too much influence over government economic policymaking?

A thread 🧵

1/25 Ahead of this Budget there’s been swelling frustration in some parts of the Conservative Party and media towards the Office for Budget Responsibility for supposedly deciding how much money is available to the Chancellor.

2/25

Why have older workers left the UK workforce?

Why does it matter?

And how do we get them back?

👷‍♂️👨‍💼🧑‍🏭🧑‍⚕️

Thread 🧵

1/16 Since the pandemic there’s been concerning increase in economic inactivity among people of working age (16 and 64) of 650,000.

(And note that inactivity does not mean unemployed - it means people who are not, for various reasons, currently actively looking for a job.)

2/16

What's happening to people's mental health and what are the implications for the economy and the public finances?

A thread...1/14 ...First the broad economic context.

There's been a big jump in the numbers of working age people who are economically inactive, citing long-term sickness...2/14

📉📈⁉️ Is the UK actually doing relatively well versus our peer economies?

Brief thread...🧵1/8 ...This was the claim from Jeremy Hunt yesterday at the @resfoundation/@CEP_LSE #economy2030 launch.

The Chancellor observed the UK economy has grown faster than faster than Germany and some others since 2010 - something he's said multiple times over the past year...2/8

💵🔋🌞 Is Labour’s £28bn Green Prosperity Plan necessary for net zero...or fiscally irresponsible?

A thread…🧵1/ The latter is the claim made by Jeremy Hunt this week in The Times, where he says if Labour sticks to its net zero investment plans it would bust its own fiscal rules - or have to put up taxes to pay for them.

Is that credible?...2/

thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy…

📈📉⁉️ Is the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasting that the UK economy will be smaller or larger by 2027 than it did previously?

A thread...🧵1/ ...In her response to the #AutumnStatement last week Labour’s shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves said:

“The economy is now forecast to be £40bn smaller by 2027 than the Chancellor said back in March.”...2/

https://x.com/RachelReevesMP/status/1727336859406401665?s=20

🚨NEW: What’s the true nature of the relationship between the Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich and the Russian President Vladimir Putin?

A thread🧵...1/ ...For 20 years Abramovich has sought to downplay the connection.

When he bought Chelsea football club in 2003 he said he had “no special relationship” with Putin...2/ ft.com/content/9b59de…

Some useful official statistics on inheritance tax here...

gov.uk/government/sta… ....In the 2020/21 tax year, 3.73% of UK deaths - 27,000 - resulted in an Inheritance Tax charge - less than 1 in 26...