Thread by @bopinion

A handful of wealthy nations have had a change of heart about Covid-19 vaccine patents.

“It’s a belated but powerful step intended to boost vaccine campaigns in developing countries as new virus hotspots flare up,” writes @LionelALaurent trib.al/JwwJY3R

As big as it is, it’s only a start.

Even assuming WTO patent obligations are waived with the support of the U.S. and Europe — which isn’t a sure thing yet — it’s unlikely to be enough on its own to break the world out of this pandemic trib.al/JwwJY3R

Pushing the pharmaceutical industry to share manufacturing know-how is the real goal.

"It's not really the recipe that's the problem at this point, it's getting the expertise to manufacturers in developing countries that's important," says @mihirssharma trib.al/JwwJY3R

Vaccine campaigns are glaringly unequal right now.

The wealthiest 27 places in the world account for 10.5% of the population, but 35.6% of vaccinations. In India, barely 2% of its population is fully vaccinated bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

Twelve billion vaccine doses could be produced this year, if all current projections are aggregated. But we’re nowhere close to that in actuality.

And the doses that are available have largely been gobbled up by rich countries bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

While worthy initiatives exist to get doses to the developing world, they’re not nearly enough on their own.

Other mutations will emerge if the pandemic isn’t brought under control bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

Will waiving an obligation to follow WTO rules on patents rebalance this?

Unlike in the AIDS crisis, when South Africa fought for affordable access to life-saving drugs, today’s biggest challenge is manufacturing enough vaccines for billions of people trib.al/JwwJY3R

With patients in India dying in the streets and crematoriums melting down from overuse, the U.S. and other rich nations are backing efforts to waive vaccine patents.

But IP waivers, by themselves, won’t get the job done bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

There are many obstacles, not all of them patent related:

💉Raw materials and supplies
💉Complexity of m-RNA vaccines
💉Logistical issues
💉Scaling up production

Without more know-how on how to make vaccines, waiving patents won't be a game-changer trib.al/JwwJY3R

Having access to the “recipe” certainly helps, but understanding how to put it together and produce it at scale is something else.

The hope is that the more strident tone on patents from Biden and Macron will hold the industry’s feet to the fire trib.al/JwwJY3R

Given the billions in public money plowed into researching, developing and manufacturing vaccines, governments have leverage.

Waiving the WTO rules is certainly a better look than hoarding doses. For now, though, it’s a symbolic victory trib.al/JwwJY3R

"What's happening in India right now can happen anywhere that's not vaccinated," says @mihirssharma.

It should be a wake-up call: Countries that don't have great health care need to put protocols in place to make sure that if a spike comes, they're ready twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…