This week's PHE surveillance report, 26th April - 2nd May
- despite easing of social restrictions & schools returning after Easter hols, case numbers still going down among all ages.
- still regional/local variation
- and ++concerns around variants.🧵 gov.uk/government/sta…
Still some big differences by region - particularly looking at younger adults in Yorkshire and Humber.
Case rates in Y&H are 42/100,000, more than 3 times the rates in the SW at just 12/100,000.
This is even more apparent when looking at data by local authority.
Although some positive news as some of the differences by ethnicity and deprivation may be beginning to narrow.
In terms of incidents/outbreaks reported to PHE.
Still as low as ever for care homes and hospitals.
And a small increase in edu settings, as would be expected.
The next ONS surveillance data update will provide a little more clarity on if this is translating into meaningful increases in cases among children/young adults.
No surprises in the morbidity and mortality data, remaining as comforting as it has been in a while.
And while overall vaccine uptake remains impressive...
It masks some major differences by ethnicity, with nearly twice the percentage of people aged over 50 who are White having had two doses of the vaccine compared with those who are Black.
So much work still to be done here.
In general it all looks pretty rosy for the gov road map review in advance of 17th May.
EXCEPT for the rapidly growing concerns about variants, particularly B.1.617 (first detected in India)
While things look good for the first three, the fourth is less clear. Tomorrow's update of variant data looks increasingly important.
In particular, it makes the idea of opening things further for international travel seem particularly risky.
Plus it reinforces the basics of ensuring that everyone can get tested, and has the necessary support and means to isolate.
This includes tackling ongoing structural issues like insecure work/multiple occupancy HHs. + giving local gov & health protection teams the resource, flexibility, & support they need to manage.
It'll help places with ongoing high cases AND slow local spread of variants.
Gov data shows how price promos are more likely to be applied to unhealthy junk food rather than healthier foods.
And rather than saving people ££, they can lead to around 22% *more* purchases than would otherwise happen, with *more* money spent and *more* consumption.
That's why companies use these promotions.
That's also why the policy was in the obesity strategy in the first place. The irony being that it is more likely to help than hinder the impact of the cost of living crisis on individuals and families.
In today's @Telegraph, Sally O'Brien & I discuss @HealthFdn / @IpsosUK polling results on public attitudes to gov policy on alcohol, tobacco, & unhealthy food (no £-wall🔓)
🧵Tl,dr: While gov has a preference for individual responsibility, the public still think gov should act.
Gains in healthy life-expectancy have stalled, childhood obesity continues to rise, alcohol-related hospital admissions are up, and tobacco still causes over 500,000 admissions a year.
And there are huge inequalities with more deprived areas disproportionately impacted.
Yet the recent trend of unwinding public health policy continues.
The tobacco control plan is unpublished, junk food ad bans have been delayed, plans for a national approach to health inequalities have gone & there's been nothing on alcohol since 2012.
First the good news. COVID cases in hospital clearly falling, in all ages, regions (except perhaps still plateauing in Yorkshire and Humber).
There's still a lag on cases in intensive care and on deaths, but they'll drop soon as well.
Flu, however, seems to be on the rise.
Overall case & admission rates are relatively low, but trending up.
And with a higher % of lab respiratory samples (sent in by dr from people with chest symptoms) testing for flu than at the same time in the past 5 yrs. i.e., it's early
This is a really helpful and timely piece of work by @davidfinchthf.
Along with last week's @TheIFS report on how government ££ are spent, it's clear that we need to do more to align public health funding with local needs. 🧵
Over the last decade, gains in life expectancy in England have stalled.
And it will be no surprise that the impact has not been felt evenly by everyone.
While life expectancy continues to increase for people living in the least deprived parts of the country, people from the most deprived communities are dying earlier.
This type of shortsighted policy review has reared its head again.
Health is an *asset* & the types of obesity policies being looked at here are exactly the ones that are both most effective AND most likely to narrow inequalities. 🧵