Eric Profile picture
May 7, 2021 16 tweets 7 min read Read on X
1/ 3 months ago today, Iowa ended all COVID restrictions. As you can see, it turned out to be a complete disaster, as all the replies in the thread below predicted.
2/ Compared to its neighbors, Iowa's 7 day average of daily cases has actually diverted and become lower than the Midwest average, and was spared a large spring wave seen in stricter states like Michigan.
3/ "But what if they're not testing enough?" I'm sure some would say. Seems like the other side of the same coin of the Trump "you don't find cases if you don't test" argument, but here are hospitalizations instead, compared to the midwest and national average. Still better.
4/ Speaking of hospitalizations, Iowa has the 9th lowest COVID hospitalization rate in the United States, and 3rd lowest hospitalization rate of states its size or larger (only CA and UT are lower). It's also 45% lower than the national average.
5/ Iowa has vaccinated nearly 80% of seniors in the state, which is 8th highest in the United States, and 3rd highest of states its size or larger. As seen everywhere else, seniors accounted for a vast majority of COVID deaths in Iowa (over 90%).
6/ There are states with governors that talk a lot about "equity", then there are states that actually have a pretty equitable pandemic response. People of color in Iowa were not disproportionately affected by COVID, unlike other states like California and New York.
7/ Some may mention Iowa's COVID death rate being above the national average, but their excess death rate (this includes all deaths, not just COVID) is below the national average. Maybe having a balanced, holistic pandemic response is the right call?
8/ Perhaps most importantly - 100% of schools in Iowa provide full-time in-person instruction and they have since February 15th. Iowa is one of 10 states that provides 100% full-time in-person instruction, and the 3rd largest state to do so behind Florida and South Carolina.
9/ Iowa is also ranked as the 2nd fastest-recovering state in the country when it comes to COVID health, leisure/travel, and the economy/labor market. They are the #1 state in leisure/travel recovery (restaurants, theaters, shopping centers etc). wallethub.com/edu/states-cov…
10/ So, by nearly every available metric, Iowa is doing pretty great! How have the media and "experts" covered Iowa, though? Here's an example - this Atlantic piece titled "Iowa is What Happens When Government Does Nothing" published 12/3. Hospitalizations are down 81% since.
11/ One of the so-called experts extensively quoted in this Atlantic piece is Eli Perencevich, who said Iowa's lax policies would result in a "super peak" over the holidays and thousands of preventable deaths. "The storm's coming". (No storm came).
12/ Not just a storm - a tsunami, with as many as 80 deaths per day coming a few weeks after the holidays in Iowa, according to Perencevich. The rolling average of deaths in Iowa peaked and started rapidly declining at almost the exact same time that he said this.
13/ You'd think Eli would check his biases about how much we can control a virus, but he doubled down in January, saying "things will get worse" because God forbid he saw a picture of *squints* kids playing together. (Hospitalizations are down 64% since he tweeted this.)
14/ Moving along, once Iowa lifted all COVID restrictions 3 months ago Lyz Lenz wrote this Washington Post piece titled "Welcome to Iowa, a state that doesn't care if you live or die". As you can see, it's aged well.
15/ The entire piece is condescending, elitist swill, but the closing of the article is particularly bad. "Iowa Nice" is alive and well. There are just miserable people whose brains have become so badly broken by partisan politics that they no longer see it.
16/ So there you have it. Next time you see panicked headlines promising carnage when a state lifts more COVID19 restrictions, remember Iowa, which alongside Florida, Texas etc. has helped prove seasonal stimuli are much stronger than whatever pandemic theater you put in place.

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More from @The_OtherET

Jun 22, 2022
There is a false narrative emerging based on weak/little evidence that is attempting to blame the current issues around air travel on the removal of mask mandates. This is despite there being minimal disruptions for *two months* post-mandate and no documented outbreaks. 1/🧵
2/ As some of you know I've been periodically tracking flight disruptions for a while post-mandate. This was over a month after the mandate was removed. No issues:

3/ Compare this to over the holidays during the winter/omicron surge, where there were mass cancellations that airlines explicitly said were due to staff out with COVID. This was, of course, while the mask mandates were still in place. nytimes.com/2021/12/25/bus…
Read 15 tweets
Jan 30, 2022
1/ It's nearly February 2022 and people are still posting flu data suggesting masks, distancing etc. virtually eliminate influenza. Seasonal viruses "disappearing" is something that has happened previously during other pandemics/epidemics, regardless of policy. This isn't new. 🧵
2/ It is true that in the United States, flu prevalence dropped dramatically once mask wearing became slightly more common (from 58% -> 70%) - but this is a spurious correlation that doesn’t hold up when looking at areas where masking is not-so-common.
3/ Based on the chart above, one could assume that when community masking reaches some threshold, flu prevalence drops dramatically. Yet, looking at influenza surveillance for high-mask areas like New York (86%) and low-mask areas like South Dakota (42%), you see the same trend.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 10, 2022
1/ This ordinance proposal that I just read out of Jackson County, MO is truly insane. It essentially grants unilateral authority to the Jackson County Health Department. It would basically create a public health dictatorship.
2/ The health department (ominously labeled 'The Director' in this draft) can implement any public health measures they deem necessary in public and private schools as well as child care facilities, including "exclusion of people with suspected illnesses".
3/ The Director has the power to close any public or private school if they deem it a public health threat. They can close any place of public or private assembly. Presumably, this also includes churches. They cannot reopen unless The Director deems it safe.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 29, 2021
This thread is chock-full of self-contradictions and a complete misrepresentation of the physics of fine aerosols, as well as a misunderstanding of how the NIOSH hierarchy of controls works and what types of PPE it represents.
The transmission dynamics of airborne particles are far from "basic physics", but Joseph misleads people here by suggesting we're still dealing with large droplets that predictably fall to the ground. Look up Stokes law Joseph. Strike 1.
Joseph says he was one of the first people to call for masks in this Washington Post article.

In it, he once again talks about "droplets" and suggests fomite transmission is a major threat (it isn't). Bizarre that he'd still share this article. Strike 2.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 4, 2021
1/ An article/chart that suggest the state of Missouri's health dept suppressed data that "found masks work" has been making the rounds lately with a few particular posts getting thousands of likes and retweets. In reality, the data completely contradict what they're saying.
2/ First, the timeline they chose was completely arbitrary and includes a significant portion of time when both groups did not have mandates in place. The case numbers started diverging *two months* before the first mask mandates started, suggesting significant confounders.
3/ But what if people started wearing masks prior to mandates? The data don't support that - the number of people wearing masks only significantly increased after the mandates started. delphi.cmu.edu/covidcast/indi…
Read 9 tweets
Aug 30, 2021
1/ The letter the US DOE sent today to several states saying they are opening an investigation into their ban on school mask mandates is dangerous and misguided. Their main claim is that banning mask mandates in schools creates an unsafe environment for at-risk kids.
2/ They open the letter by saying cases are rising in both the US population and school-aged children - which is true but has nothing to do with masks in schools. They mention rising hospitalizations in kids but fail to mention we are seeing an enormous out-of-season RSV spike.
3/ Additionally, other countries that experienced a delta wave such as the UK did not see rising pediatric hospitalization rates. It doesn't make much sense that delta would be uniquely dangerous to US kids. COVID co-infection with RSV could explain this.
Read 16 tweets

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