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Eric Profile picture
Eric
@The_OtherET
Not selling anything.
3 subscribers
Jun 22, 2022 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
There is a false narrative emerging based on weak/little evidence that is attempting to blame the current issues around air travel on the removal of mask mandates. This is despite there being minimal disruptions for *two months* post-mandate and no documented outbreaks. 1/🧵 2/ As some of you know I've been periodically tracking flight disruptions for a while post-mandate. This was over a month after the mandate was removed. No issues:

Jan 30, 2022 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
1/ It's nearly February 2022 and people are still posting flu data suggesting masks, distancing etc. virtually eliminate influenza. Seasonal viruses "disappearing" is something that has happened previously during other pandemics/epidemics, regardless of policy. This isn't new. 🧵 2/ It is true that in the United States, flu prevalence dropped dramatically once mask wearing became slightly more common (from 58% -> 70%) - but this is a spurious correlation that doesn’t hold up when looking at areas where masking is not-so-common.
Jan 10, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
1/ This ordinance proposal that I just read out of Jackson County, MO is truly insane. It essentially grants unilateral authority to the Jackson County Health Department. It would basically create a public health dictatorship. 2/ The health department (ominously labeled 'The Director' in this draft) can implement any public health measures they deem necessary in public and private schools as well as child care facilities, including "exclusion of people with suspected illnesses".
Dec 29, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
This thread is chock-full of self-contradictions and a complete misrepresentation of the physics of fine aerosols, as well as a misunderstanding of how the NIOSH hierarchy of controls works and what types of PPE it represents. The transmission dynamics of airborne particles are far from "basic physics", but Joseph misleads people here by suggesting we're still dealing with large droplets that predictably fall to the ground. Look up Stokes law Joseph. Strike 1.
Dec 4, 2021 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
1/ An article/chart that suggest the state of Missouri's health dept suppressed data that "found masks work" has been making the rounds lately with a few particular posts getting thousands of likes and retweets. In reality, the data completely contradict what they're saying. 2/ First, the timeline they chose was completely arbitrary and includes a significant portion of time when both groups did not have mandates in place. The case numbers started diverging *two months* before the first mask mandates started, suggesting significant confounders.
Aug 30, 2021 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
1/ The letter the US DOE sent today to several states saying they are opening an investigation into their ban on school mask mandates is dangerous and misguided. Their main claim is that banning mask mandates in schools creates an unsafe environment for at-risk kids. 2/ They open the letter by saying cases are rising in both the US population and school-aged children - which is true but has nothing to do with masks in schools. They mention rising hospitalizations in kids but fail to mention we are seeing an enormous out-of-season RSV spike.
Aug 11, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/ There seems to be a movement by some to make children wear N95s in school. I just wanted to highlight what a typical school day would look like if such an intervention were introduced, and they were to follow all the proper protocols that actually make N95s effective: 2/ When the child arrives, before they enter the school building they must have their mask fitted and leak tested. The mask must not have any defects such as holes or torn straps. The mask must stay on at all times. The child cannot touch it.
Aug 9, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Been thinking about this study lately: "epidemiological data on HCoVs shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly, but *disease-reducing immunity* is long-lived...once endemic phase is reached, CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold" medrxiv.org/content/10.110… It's interesting, because data out of the UK and emerging data from the US indicate symptoms of "delta" are generally more mild. It also highlights the pitfalls of mass-scale PCR testing of a population over a virus that could be becoming endemic. theguardian.com/world/2021/jun…
Jun 4, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/ The latest CDC MMWR study released today is being used by major media outlets to suggest COVID hospitalizations are rising in 12-17 year old children - except they aren't. The CDC's own data contradicts this. The CDC cherry-picked dates in their study to push a narrative. ImageImageImage 2/ First, let's look at the time they cut off their study - April 24th. Based on the graph below, you do see increased hospitalization rates in 12-17 year olds from March to April 24th. Image
Jun 4, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
This is a lie and should be flagged as misinformation. Hospitalizations are not increasing for people ages 12 to 17. They're decreasing in all age groups. CDC's own data shows this. Here is the age group they are referencing compared to overall population hospitalization rates. Both are falling, but overall hospitalization rates are falling faster because kids' hospitalization rates were extremely low to begin with. This fear mongering is deplorable, @CNN
Jun 1, 2021 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
1/ With the pandemic finally, thankfully winding down in the US, I thought I'd compare the COVID death curves of high, intermediate and low-stringency states. Despite a large surge in Spring 2020, the high-stringency states still saw a similar surge this past winter. 2/ Looking at COVID deaths cumulatively, high, intermediate and low-stringency states performed about the same. It may be tempting to say low-stringency states performed "better", but it's more honest to say there's really no statistical difference between the three.
May 19, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Hey @KCStar this piece is just awful. Unvaccinated kids are at about the same risk of COVID as a vaccinated 30 year old. Unmasked schools had about the same or *better* case rates than masked schools. This article, of course, mentions none of this. amp.kansascity.com/opinion/editor… There is literally nothing of substance in this piece except a brief mention of community vaccination rates. It mentions nothing of the relative risk of kids compared to adults, or how masks don’t appear to make any difference at all in schools. Just the ramblings of a fanatic.
May 7, 2021 • 16 tweets • 7 min read
1/ 3 months ago today, Iowa ended all COVID restrictions. As you can see, it turned out to be a complete disaster, as all the replies in the thread below predicted. 2/ Compared to its neighbors, Iowa's 7 day average of daily cases has actually diverted and become lower than the Midwest average, and was spared a large spring wave seen in stricter states like Michigan.
May 6, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I took population-normalized COVID hospitalizations for the 25 most stringent states on COVID policy in the US (red line), and compared them to the 25 least stringent states (blue line). Trajectory is nearly identical. Both had the same average inpatients per day - 23 per 100k. Hospitalizations peaked for the less-stringent states January 6th, and for the more-stringent states January 7th. Pretty remarkable.
Mar 16, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
In September 2019, Johns Hopkins in partnership with WHO published a detailed report on "high-impact respiratory pathogens" that is prophetic. For example, they warned NPI policies could be abused by overreaching governments for political/social purposes, not because of evidence. They say widespread quarantine is likely the least effective NPI to do anything, especially if the pathogen is a) airborne, b) highly transmissible. Sound familiar? They mention how the Ebola experience highlights how difficult quarantine policies can be to maintain.
Mar 1, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Thanks to an FOIA request from a determined friend here in KC, we now know the number of #COVID19 cases the Kansas City Health Department could trace from restaurants and bars between November 1st and January 31st.

The answer is 11. 2/ In addition to the extraordinarily weak contact tracing data from KCHD, the timeline and mobility data does not align at all with their narrative that these businesses have a meaningful impact on community spread. ericjusteric.medium.com/in-support-of-…
Feb 17, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Narrative: "COVID cases are going down because more people are staying home!"

Reality: According to the USC Dornsife "Understanding America" study, the percentage of people in the US staying home except for essential activities/exercise has remained around 40-45% since June Narrative: "COVID cases are going down because less people are gathering at each others' homes!"

Reality: The percentage of people in the US that have had visitors at their residence has remained between roughly 40 and 50% since May
Jan 18, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Trisha is really going double down on this? Let’s see the mental gymnastics required to argue joggers and cyclists are a real problem with the spread of COVID “Risk of transmitting outdoors is an order of magnitude less than indoors”

“When jogging or cycling contacts tend to be rare and fleeting”

“Exercising outdoors is one of the few freedoms people in England still have”

Off to a good start making her case so far Image
Jan 15, 2021 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Tired of seeing the same flawed #COVID19 Kansas mask study being shared as proof of "masks working", so I used similar methods + the same dataset and tracked what happened in mandate/non-mandate counties after their study's end date. Pretty different from what the CDC found. Image The original observation in the study shared widely by the CDC was that daily cases in mask mandated counties fell while non-mask mandated counties rose. Of course, the conclusion falls apart when you re-run their experiment when SARS-CoV-2 was much more prevalent in Kansas. Image
Jan 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This is a parody account right The replies to her post, I just, I mean...wow
Jan 9, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Tom claims COVID spread is entirely because of noncompliance with COVID measures, but he’ll never explain how 9 Midwest states peaked within one week of each other despite having completely different COVID policies, or how South Dakota managed to be the first to peak among them Image Tom just hand-waves California’s terrible COVID numbers with “places in CA haven’t masked and distanced”. Really? Where? When? How? Do you have studies? Anything? California has some of the highest mask compliance numbers in the country. Can you be more specific, @DrTomFrieden?