TLDR things are looking pretty good right now. Caveat is variants (which is a whole other thread). 1/16
Overall UK cases are hoevering at just over 2K a day and back to levels back at the end of last summer. We can see drop over Easter hols (partly due to less testing) - but clear that opening outdoor spaces & shops has not caused an uptick (good!!). 2/16
Looking at types of tests done, clear upticks in twice weekly rapid LFDs when schools are open.
The drop off in LFDs over last few weeks also obv. School kids doing them less? other people? no idea. But clearly govt aim for loads of people to do them not happening. 3/16
Worryingly, the proportion of positive cases that are rapid tests *unconfirmed* by PCR tests has gone up (70% of LFD +ves!) - even though confirmatory PCR is available. Why? Who? Means it's hard to know how to interpret case numbers. 4/16
Still, looking at positivity rates for each nation (PCR tests only), clear that positivity is reducing and back at levels last seen summer 2020. ONS infection survey has same picture.
This is a good thing. 5/16
Regionally in England, Yorks & Humber still has highest rates (ONS agrees). Slight increase in NW. Everywhere else flat or declining. ONS says similar but says London, Yorks, East of England might not be declining. 6/16
Hospitalisations and deaths are both back at levels last seen in the summer. This is a combination of low case rates after months of lockdown *and* highly effective vaccines in over 90% of our most vulnerable people. Excellent. 7/16
We're steady at around 3m jabs a week for vax and still mainly on second doses. Expect this to continue for a few more weeks but we are on track to offer 1st jab to all adults by end July and 2 jabs to all by end Sept. 8/16
Currently we're doing first jabs in the 40s - 75% of 45-49 yr olds already have one. For second jabs we're on the 65-74 yr olds and hopefully finding the last few % of older groups. All good. 9/16
That said, ONS released a comprehensive breakdown by different demographics. Similar to what we've seen from before, lower take up in black & minority ethnic populations, more deprived communities. There seem to be some language barriers too. 10/16
Let's have a closer look at schools... From public health england data, although 10-19 year olds have highest case rates, we have not (yet?) seen the increase in cases we saw in March.
ONS says cases in school age kids falling. 11/16
PHE also show a small increase in school outbreaks but levels much lower than in March and massively lower than last winter.
This is all good and shows that low levels of Covid in communities + mitigations such as masks can and do make schools safer. 12/16
Finally the international picture... Cases globally remain very high. The last week saw the most cases ever recorded. 13/16
Although US is doing ok (although they still have rates 2x ours), Europe is high (even if coming down) & S. America & Asia (driven by India & neighbours) are experiencing terrible Covid surges.
They also have much lower vax rates. Helping vaccinate the globe is crucial! 14/16
(NB I've not put on same plot cos denominators not really comparable - Asia looks v low cos such a large pop inc China which is basically zero Covid, S America also has very large and very geographically spread pop). Both also have worse testing. 15/16
Anyway, to sum up everything going in right direction.
I wish I knew who was doing LFDs and why (eg are symptomatic using them instead of PCR cos quicker?)
The fly in the ointment is variants - but that's the next thread...
Thx as ever to Bob Hawkins for his help. 16/16
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Quick thread on the Astra Zeneca (AZ) covid vaccine since it's been in the news today.
TLDR there isn't a new "smoking gun", the AZ vax was one of first and cheapest, it saved millions of lives globally, there are better vax out there now, adapted to new variants 1/9
the AZ vaccine was one of the first approved at the end of 2020, cheaper than Pfizer, and - importantly - easier to administer in lower resource settings as it didn't require super low temperatures for storage 2/9
In most countries it was first rolled out in older adults. As it was rolled out in younger adults, a *very rare*, serious, side effect was noticed - it could cause deadly blood clots
This was spotted quickly and studied. Vax monitoring did its job. 3/9
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*
It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6
The UKHSA have now published their modelled estimates of what percentage of English population has Covid. And as of a week ago it's high (4.3%) and rising.
It's highest in London, South East and East & in young and middle aged adults.
The main thing is it's going up and fast, so prevalence will already by significantly higher now than it was last week. 3/7
Short thread on what I said on Channel 4 news tonight.
1. Did I find Hancock a sympathetic witness?
A: I find it hard to have sympathy for someone who repeatedly claimed to have thrown protective ring around care homes, while discharging covid+ patients into them.
1/5
There were *28,000* excess deaths in care homes Apr-May 2020.
Harries thought it was "clinically reasonable" not to treat covid +ve residents in hospital. Even it was, it was NOT reasonable to return them somewhere they could infect so many other very vulnerable people. 2/5
2. Did I think scientists bear blame for not emphasising asymptomatic transmission?
A: No, because they very clearly did advise there could be asymptomic transmission before March 2020 - sources in next tweet. 3/5
Hancock: "there was no way we could allow the NHS to become overwhelmed"
Except, the NHS WAS overwhelmed
Here is what NHS staff said about that time - Pls read whole 🧵
"Heartbreaking"
"Horrific"
"It broke my soul"
"We cried, we came home exhausted. We were overwhelmed"
1/16
"Overnight we were told that all “safe working rules” were gone. There was no choice, we were forced to do it"
"It felt like a death sentence. It felt out of control"
"We were put on wards with no senior support, sometimes makeshift ... with little of the right equipment"
2/16
"Terrifying. A huge sense of duty ... but also terror. We were unprepared & ovt clearly had no plan"
"We had patients on wards on 19 litres of oxygen - this would never happen under normal circumstances - they’d have come to Intensive Care but we didn’t have the space"
TLDR: modest August wave with flatlining hospital admissions, but expect a bigger wave later this autumn 1/12
Hospital admissions with Covid in England are still quite flat for 3rd week in a row and at a level below previous troughs.
Number of people with covid in critical care & primaril yin hospital because of Covid also flat & low.
Deaths ⬆️, from case rises few weeks ago 2/12
However, Zoe symptom tracker app estimating significant increases recently. Very hard to know how reliable Zoe trends are, given far fewer people reporting, but it's worth bearing in mind.