Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 7, 2021 15 tweets 7 min read Read on X
@DrydockDreams has a great post up on the Battle of Coral Sea with models of the ships sunk there.

This thread is going to take a lessor known road in exploring that battle.

Namely, why search plane radio communications sucked in the battle.
1/

When people remember the Battle of Coral Sea. These are the sort of strategic and tactical maps people use to understand the battle.
2/
This map is not one normally used for the Coral Sea, but is absolutely necessary backdrop to it.

These are the active Japanese seaplane search sectors in May 1942.

So...why didn't they both spot USN CV's & pass on data to the Japanese CV's?
3/
The answer is in this Ionosphere map.

The messages from those IJN seaplane searchers simply could not get through because high frequency radio propagation between them & their bases sucked rocks.

They were in the "Great South Pacific Radio Static Blob."
4/
And so were the SBD's of the Lexington & Yorktown and IJN cruiser float planes.
5/
High Frequency or "HF" radio was a very hit or miss proposition in May 1942. The "Great South Pacific Radio Static Blob" was completely unknown at the time.

It would be another 3-years before enough science data had been analyzed to construct the ionosphere map up thread.
6/
Both the Japanese and the Allies had civil-military scientific organizations involved in monitoring the ionosphere and predicting where the maximum usable frequency (MUF) were day and night.

The origins of the Allied agencies in these screen shots.
7/
The Japanese had a similar agency, singular, where the Army, Navy & civilian scientists all cooperated in sharing data on a real time basis in a manner seen no where else in the Japanese Empire.

It was called the "Physical Institute for Radio Waves" (Dempa-butsuri Kenkuyo).
8/
The US Army Signal Corps was impressed with the Dempa-butsuri Kenkuyo post-war.

But In May 1942 these agencies were -- excepting Australia's Radio Propagation Committee -- too new/far away from the South Pacific to make any difference in the naval battle.
9/
This lack of H/F radio propagation data was one of the great "What Ifs" of the Battle of Coral Sea.

Better Coordination between the SWPA & USN fleet units was both possible & desirable.
10/
This article:

Combat Information Center Magazine
Aug 1944 issue
"farewell to communication failures"
From the Original Manuscript prepared by S/L A. L. Hall, RAAF
See pages 7 thru 11
maritime.org/doc/cic/cic-44…

Details the H/F radio possibilities of May 42.

11/
As does this report excerpt, undated, but probably written in late 1945:

THE OFFICIAL HISTORY OF THE R.A.A.F.
DIRECTORATE OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND RADAR
BY W/CDR, G. F. GATES

IONOSPHERIC ORGANISATION.
groups.google.com/g/rec.aviation…

12/
The Pacific War would be preparing to move move to Leyte in Sept 1944 - after two Allied ionosphere conferences in the UK on 20 Mar 1944 and the 2nd in Wash DC on 10 Apr 1944 - before the Australian H/F radio propagation discoveries/methods were taken into the ISIB & IRPL.
13/
For want of an accurate High Frequency radio propagation prediction at Coral Sea, the USS Lexington was lost.

14/

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More from @TrentTelenko

Nov 5
Western media & political commentary are dominated by "doomers" predicting short & long term outcomes on the 'inexhaustibility' of Russia's personnel & equipment pools, despite overwhelming evidence that Russia is struggling badly.

Reality:
Russia is in a crisis of loss. 🧵
1/ See: https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/confirmed-russian-battlefield-equipment-losses-1730799222.html
The following are the things I've been tracking for some time:

1. The Russians are losing an infantry division every week to 10 days in terms of soldiers at a rate of between with a 1,100 to 1,700 and associated equipment.

2/ Image
2. The Russian artillery is getting shorter ranged over time from losing the ability to make barrels and liners for 152mm guns. We are seeing literal WW2 122mm artillery pieces, presumably from North Korean stocks, in the Donbas.

3/
Read 15 tweets
Nov 3
This Warzone article is an example of one of the things that has been driving me bug house nuts watching the US Military deal with drones.

Recognizing the utter collapse of analytical rigor compared to the "Big Five"
1/
...procurement programs and the MLRS artillery rocket system in the late 1970's-to-early 1980's.

The post 1973 Arab Israeli War US Army understood the idea of "the logistical costs of a stowed kill."
2/ Image
The US Army kept the 105mm on the M1 in production so long because the depleted uranium (DU) 105mm "Long Rod" APFSDS could kill a early T-72 and you could carry 55 rounds versus 40 rounds for a 120mm gun firing a tungsten APDS or early DU APFSDS round.

3/ Image
Image
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Read 47 tweets
Oct 4
Thermite drones inside a bunker are all sorts of evil beyond burns.

My WW2 flame weapon research found that CO, carbon monoxide, fills the chemical bonds that O2 does in the lungs of air breathing fauna.

That means once CO hits those bonds in your lungs, you suffocate.

1/
What killed Imperial Japanese soldiers in WW2 "without a mark" inside bunkers was carbon monoxide poisoning, not a lack of O2.

Once you get enough CO in the lungs on the O2 chemical bonds.

No further O2 can get into the bloodstream and you suffocate.

2/ Image
I ran across that fact in a trip report of a US Army Chemical Warfare Service (CWS) medical doctor sent to Leyte to take blood samples from IJA corpses that died from flame weapons.

It didn't work out and the CWS used goats in bunkers hit with flamethrower weapons to get the CO poisoning medical data.

3/3Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 4
You all realize that this Ukrainian thermite drone innovation just made every field fortification design by every army in the world obsolete?

1/
Any trench w/o overhead cover and any passage or firing slit that is big enough to shoot a crew served heavy weapon or vehicle out of is also big enough for a FPV drone spewing thermite to fly into.

2/ Image
Every field fortification manual ever written by every military in the world is obsolete and will have to be re-written with an eye to placing curtains, nets or wire screens across firing slits and doors to keep out small drones.

3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 1
These appear to be long range heavy MLRS of 240 mm to 400 mm diameter rather than "ballistic missiles."

1/
Heavy MLRS like the Chinese PLA, 350 km range, PCL191 erases the distinction between short range ballistic missiles & guided MLRS.

It is unclear exactly what the real ranges range of Iranian Heavy MLRS are given Chinese technology transfers.
2/

The "missile" impacts have the classic artillery rocket impact ellipse with strikes being on the line of flight axis having more dispersal (long/short) that left or right of it.

3/
Image
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Read 7 tweets
Oct 1
Just...no. That's bad analysis.

One of the spaces @secretsqrl123 had with @RyanO_ChosenCoy present. He made clear Ukrainian FPV drones based on Hollywood camera multi-copters have a 50 km one way range.

The other issue is the disintermediation of drones from platforms.
1/
Image
"Disintermediation" means any shipping container or flat space on a vessel/vehicle works as a launcher.

A ISO container with 126 drones can be stacked on a 24 X 24 top level of a Chinese MGX-24 container ship and lob 72,576 drones in a simultaneous wave 50 km or more.

2/ Image
Another thing that works are simple racks in cargo aircraft, helicopters or boats.

The Russians are using simple racks in the Mi-8 to hold FPV drones in large numbers to engage Ukrainian boat drones or special forces craft with MANPADS or FPV's.

3/
Read 18 tweets

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