Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 7, 2021 15 tweets 7 min read Read on X
@DrydockDreams has a great post up on the Battle of Coral Sea with models of the ships sunk there.

This thread is going to take a lessor known road in exploring that battle.

Namely, why search plane radio communications sucked in the battle.
1/

When people remember the Battle of Coral Sea. These are the sort of strategic and tactical maps people use to understand the battle.
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This map is not one normally used for the Coral Sea, but is absolutely necessary backdrop to it.

These are the active Japanese seaplane search sectors in May 1942.

So...why didn't they both spot USN CV's & pass on data to the Japanese CV's?
3/
The answer is in this Ionosphere map.

The messages from those IJN seaplane searchers simply could not get through because high frequency radio propagation between them & their bases sucked rocks.

They were in the "Great South Pacific Radio Static Blob."
4/
And so were the SBD's of the Lexington & Yorktown and IJN cruiser float planes.
5/
High Frequency or "HF" radio was a very hit or miss proposition in May 1942. The "Great South Pacific Radio Static Blob" was completely unknown at the time.

It would be another 3-years before enough science data had been analyzed to construct the ionosphere map up thread.
6/
Both the Japanese and the Allies had civil-military scientific organizations involved in monitoring the ionosphere and predicting where the maximum usable frequency (MUF) were day and night.

The origins of the Allied agencies in these screen shots.
7/
The Japanese had a similar agency, singular, where the Army, Navy & civilian scientists all cooperated in sharing data on a real time basis in a manner seen no where else in the Japanese Empire.

It was called the "Physical Institute for Radio Waves" (Dempa-butsuri Kenkuyo).
8/
The US Army Signal Corps was impressed with the Dempa-butsuri Kenkuyo post-war.

But In May 1942 these agencies were -- excepting Australia's Radio Propagation Committee -- too new/far away from the South Pacific to make any difference in the naval battle.
9/
This lack of H/F radio propagation data was one of the great "What Ifs" of the Battle of Coral Sea.

Better Coordination between the SWPA & USN fleet units was both possible & desirable.
10/
This article:

Combat Information Center Magazine
Aug 1944 issue
"farewell to communication failures"
From the Original Manuscript prepared by S/L A. L. Hall, RAAF
See pages 7 thru 11
maritime.org/doc/cic/cic-44…

Details the H/F radio possibilities of May 42.

11/
As does this report excerpt, undated, but probably written in late 1945:

THE OFFICIAL HISTORY OF THE R.A.A.F.
DIRECTORATE OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND RADAR
BY W/CDR, G. F. GATES

IONOSPHERIC ORGANISATION.
groups.google.com/g/rec.aviation…

12/
The Pacific War would be preparing to move move to Leyte in Sept 1944 - after two Allied ionosphere conferences in the UK on 20 Mar 1944 and the 2nd in Wash DC on 10 Apr 1944 - before the Australian H/F radio propagation discoveries/methods were taken into the ISIB & IRPL.
13/
For want of an accurate High Frequency radio propagation prediction at Coral Sea, the USS Lexington was lost.

14/

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More from @TrentTelenko

Feb 17
Drones are both a compliment and supplement all existing ground force combined arms weapons systems and do so at a lower cost.

For the last year to 18 months - and sources vary - three out of every four Ukrainian and Russian casualties are from drones.

Paradigm Shift 🧵

1/5
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Such is the BLUF of the drone battlefield paradigm shift in terms of human blood.

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This means the world has changed so radically that any US Army officer higher than Captain is negative value added on a drone battlefield because their professional military education is as obsolete 1930's US Horse cavalrymen Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures were in 1944.

3/5 Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 17
The problem for an independent EU nuclear deterrence force is sheer numbers, the EU lack of them.

What the Putinists have proven is that Western deterrence assumptions about "acceptable losses" were naive mirrored thinking, attributing Western values to Russia.

1/
The assumption of credible "deterrent effect" has to be shifted into the loss band of annihilation of threat forces - anything less than that, as the Ukraine war proves, is an acceptable loss for the Putinists.

We are at over a million Russian casualties to date.

2/theguardian.com/world/2026/jan…
That means a 200 kiloton nuke in either St. Petersburg or Moscow, or dozens of tactical nukes into airfields & missile fields across Western Russia as an EU nuclear response to a Russian first strike are acceptable at a minimum.

3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 15
It looks like my 4th Gen nukes posts here on X shook out data from US three letter agencies. Who belatedly realized that classifying physics was both self-defeating & stupid.

The bad news is the FYEO web site is now reporting a _NINTH_ 4th Gen. nuclear tech approach by China with metal nitrogen/nitrogen anion salt.

1/3Image
Specifically, this new Chinese approach to 4th generation nukes that create fusion device without a HEU/PU fission trigger can be packaged as small as 100 to 200 grams and can fit into a group two size class drone.

This is worse than my worst-case expectations.

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My worst-case 4th Generation nuclear scenario was based on explosively pumped flux compression generator fusion primaries with U-238 jackets in something sized to fit into an ATACMS warhead.

China's approach is 1/25th that mass/volume. 😱

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Read 4 tweets
Jan 24
I'm sorry, but this statistic:

>>Violent crime is falling, with homicides down ~21%. The largest annual drop on record.

...has been heavily polluted by improvements in trauma care, particularly hemostatic (blood clotting) bandages.

US Trauma care & FBI statistics🧵

1/ Image
The statistical comparison in the FBI data from pre-1961 is invalid as the underlying medical systems have so changed as to utterly pollute the "murders per 100,000" data.

Violent crime data pre-1961 and post 1961 are apples to oranges comparisons.

2/
-Trauma care centers (1961),

-Standardized trauma procedures (1978),

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-Improved triage (1986)

-And (since 2011) widespread adoption and use of blood clotting bandages...

3/
Read 8 tweets
Jan 24
Chairman Xi suffers from the traditional dictator's trap of believing his own sh*t because he has made it too dangerous for his cronies and underlings to tell him the truth.

He has failed the "Dictator on the Wall Test."

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Thanks to that, Chairman Xi's Regime has pretty much no resilience in adversity because it's so kleptocratic and it's all about what the guy in charge can do for his next set of corrupt cronies today.

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This 1970's comment about the Shah of Iran is so historically on point in 2026 because it shows how Xi's regime is failing "The dictator on the wall test."

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 22
Greenland is badly needed by the USA to engage nuclear armed hypersonic glide vehicles and FOBS from China and Russia aimed at the continental USA.

So-called experts saying Greenland is "unnecessary" are "Cold War thinkers" focused on traditional ICBM threat geometries.
1/ Image
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They are not thinking in terms of the detection geometries required for lofted or depressed trajectory ICBM's, HGV, and/or FOBS.

For those threats, the further forward you can deploy radars and interceptors, the better for detection and intercept.

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When geometrically minded experts in Australia looked at PLARF depressed trajectory ICBM's, HGV, and FOBS threat set.

They ended up placing a TPY-2 radars on the Cocos Island & Christmas Island ("Greenland for Oz") to generate tracks for SM-3 & THAAD interceptors.
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Read 4 tweets

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