Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 7, 2021 15 tweets 7 min read Read on X
@DrydockDreams has a great post up on the Battle of Coral Sea with models of the ships sunk there.

This thread is going to take a lessor known road in exploring that battle.

Namely, why search plane radio communications sucked in the battle.
1/

When people remember the Battle of Coral Sea. These are the sort of strategic and tactical maps people use to understand the battle.
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This map is not one normally used for the Coral Sea, but is absolutely necessary backdrop to it.

These are the active Japanese seaplane search sectors in May 1942.

So...why didn't they both spot USN CV's & pass on data to the Japanese CV's?
3/
The answer is in this Ionosphere map.

The messages from those IJN seaplane searchers simply could not get through because high frequency radio propagation between them & their bases sucked rocks.

They were in the "Great South Pacific Radio Static Blob."
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And so were the SBD's of the Lexington & Yorktown and IJN cruiser float planes.
5/
High Frequency or "HF" radio was a very hit or miss proposition in May 1942. The "Great South Pacific Radio Static Blob" was completely unknown at the time.

It would be another 3-years before enough science data had been analyzed to construct the ionosphere map up thread.
6/
Both the Japanese and the Allies had civil-military scientific organizations involved in monitoring the ionosphere and predicting where the maximum usable frequency (MUF) were day and night.

The origins of the Allied agencies in these screen shots.
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The Japanese had a similar agency, singular, where the Army, Navy & civilian scientists all cooperated in sharing data on a real time basis in a manner seen no where else in the Japanese Empire.

It was called the "Physical Institute for Radio Waves" (Dempa-butsuri Kenkuyo).
8/
The US Army Signal Corps was impressed with the Dempa-butsuri Kenkuyo post-war.

But In May 1942 these agencies were -- excepting Australia's Radio Propagation Committee -- too new/far away from the South Pacific to make any difference in the naval battle.
9/
This lack of H/F radio propagation data was one of the great "What Ifs" of the Battle of Coral Sea.

Better Coordination between the SWPA & USN fleet units was both possible & desirable.
10/
This article:

Combat Information Center Magazine
Aug 1944 issue
"farewell to communication failures"
From the Original Manuscript prepared by S/L A. L. Hall, RAAF
See pages 7 thru 11
maritime.org/doc/cic/cic-44…

Details the H/F radio possibilities of May 42.

11/
As does this report excerpt, undated, but probably written in late 1945:

THE OFFICIAL HISTORY OF THE R.A.A.F.
DIRECTORATE OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND RADAR
BY W/CDR, G. F. GATES

IONOSPHERIC ORGANISATION.
groups.google.com/g/rec.aviation…

12/
The Pacific War would be preparing to move move to Leyte in Sept 1944 - after two Allied ionosphere conferences in the UK on 20 Mar 1944 and the 2nd in Wash DC on 10 Apr 1944 - before the Australian H/F radio propagation discoveries/methods were taken into the ISIB & IRPL.
13/
For want of an accurate High Frequency radio propagation prediction at Coral Sea, the USS Lexington was lost.

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More from @TrentTelenko

May 6
This is Grok analysis of one of my X threads is a good example of why farming out your thinking/analysis to AI is a really bad idea.

Grok accurately reflects a highly flawed US National Security consensus about small drones.😱

A Grok vs Drone Reality🧵

x.com/i/grok/share/B…
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2/ Image
The Chinese Sunflower-200 is it's clone of the Iranian Shahed-136. It appeared at Russia's Armiya-2023 show and in 2025 combat in Sudan.

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Read 18 tweets
May 4
I cannot begin to tell you how heartened I am by this development in Ukrainian combat barrier doctrine.

1/
Compare the picture above to my complaints about Ukrainian fighting doctrine in the Summer of 2024.

2/
Or my B*tching about its lack in the Summer of 2023 for the Russian Army

3/
Read 7 tweets
May 1
1560 dead Russian mortars and artillery tubes was 2/3 done by drones per ISW.

Drones are the primary counter-battery system on 21st century battlefields.

US Army field artillery branch OTOH is showing up to the counter-battery indirect firefight with knives, AKA the M109A6.

1/
The M109A6 Paladin 155mm/L39 caliber self-propelled gun is the T-62MV obr. 2022 of the artillery world.

The gun is inferior to every other major power's fielded SPG world wide.

2/ Image
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The computerized fire direction system of the US Army Artillery is a overly centralized, decades old Star/mini-computer architecture, which has an electromagnetic signature so bright that it can be detected bouncing off the surface of the moon

3/ Image
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Read 17 tweets
Apr 27
Just...Reapers are not flying "Deep ISR" over Yemen.

They are dying due to a lack of electronic warfare equipment over Yemen.

I believe @noclador is overlooking the event @RyanO_ChosenCoy is calling out - The fall of Assad's Syria.

1/3 Image
Ukraine's HUR sent two drone teams with 150 drones to Syria in in June 2024 to support the Turkish supported Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

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By December 2024, Assad's regime fell because it could not counter Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) small drone airpower that Ukraine provided.

@RyanO_ChosenCoy is saying 25 such HUR teams with 80K drones would do in the Houthi from its lack of counter UAS capability.

See Grok⬇️
3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 26
I see this F-35 procurement problems post is getting traction thanks to @elonmusk .

Let's add the F-35 problem list with bolts AKA fasteners.

1/
F-35 Fastener Corruption🧵 Image
I cannot begin to tell you all how fishy this passage from that article is:

"In addition to the F-35 production line at Ft. Worth, Texas, the commingling of the two types of bolts was also discovered at the Italian F-35

2/ Image
... Final Assembly and Check-Out (FACO) facility, but not the one in Japan, the DCMA reported."

Spot checking of aircraft production and depot level maintenance facilities fastener bins is a standard operating procedure for DCMA everywhere it has quality personnel.

3/ Image
Read 19 tweets
Apr 26
Well designed Cope cages work against FPVs.

Why the West, and particularly the US Army, is in deep denial over that reality is rooted in the US Army's denial that the FPV anti-tank drone is replacing the ATGM for cost/performance reasons.

1/
The Ukrainian missile crews salvaging brand new $20K Stugna ATGM to make more FPV drones underlines the battlefield kinematic superiority of multi-copter drones to boost-glide ATGM.

2/
The ability of FPV's to operate in the dead ground makes them 2x as effective as ATGM at a lower cost:

1st Gen. FPV Drone =(π)5 km^2 78,539,816 sq m w-100% of coverage of targets

Tow Missile = (π)4.5 km^2 = 63,617,251.23 sq m at ~50% coverage 32.1 Sq km

3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets

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