Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 7, 2021 15 tweets 7 min read Read on X
@DrydockDreams has a great post up on the Battle of Coral Sea with models of the ships sunk there.

This thread is going to take a lessor known road in exploring that battle.

Namely, why search plane radio communications sucked in the battle.
1/

When people remember the Battle of Coral Sea. These are the sort of strategic and tactical maps people use to understand the battle.
2/
This map is not one normally used for the Coral Sea, but is absolutely necessary backdrop to it.

These are the active Japanese seaplane search sectors in May 1942.

So...why didn't they both spot USN CV's & pass on data to the Japanese CV's?
3/
The answer is in this Ionosphere map.

The messages from those IJN seaplane searchers simply could not get through because high frequency radio propagation between them & their bases sucked rocks.

They were in the "Great South Pacific Radio Static Blob."
4/
And so were the SBD's of the Lexington & Yorktown and IJN cruiser float planes.
5/
High Frequency or "HF" radio was a very hit or miss proposition in May 1942. The "Great South Pacific Radio Static Blob" was completely unknown at the time.

It would be another 3-years before enough science data had been analyzed to construct the ionosphere map up thread.
6/
Both the Japanese and the Allies had civil-military scientific organizations involved in monitoring the ionosphere and predicting where the maximum usable frequency (MUF) were day and night.

The origins of the Allied agencies in these screen shots.
7/
The Japanese had a similar agency, singular, where the Army, Navy & civilian scientists all cooperated in sharing data on a real time basis in a manner seen no where else in the Japanese Empire.

It was called the "Physical Institute for Radio Waves" (Dempa-butsuri Kenkuyo).
8/
The US Army Signal Corps was impressed with the Dempa-butsuri Kenkuyo post-war.

But In May 1942 these agencies were -- excepting Australia's Radio Propagation Committee -- too new/far away from the South Pacific to make any difference in the naval battle.
9/
This lack of H/F radio propagation data was one of the great "What Ifs" of the Battle of Coral Sea.

Better Coordination between the SWPA & USN fleet units was both possible & desirable.
10/
This article:

Combat Information Center Magazine
Aug 1944 issue
"farewell to communication failures"
From the Original Manuscript prepared by S/L A. L. Hall, RAAF
See pages 7 thru 11
maritime.org/doc/cic/cic-44…

Details the H/F radio possibilities of May 42.

11/
As does this report excerpt, undated, but probably written in late 1945:

THE OFFICIAL HISTORY OF THE R.A.A.F.
DIRECTORATE OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND RADAR
BY W/CDR, G. F. GATES

IONOSPHERIC ORGANISATION.
groups.google.com/g/rec.aviation…

12/
The Pacific War would be preparing to move move to Leyte in Sept 1944 - after two Allied ionosphere conferences in the UK on 20 Mar 1944 and the 2nd in Wash DC on 10 Apr 1944 - before the Australian H/F radio propagation discoveries/methods were taken into the ISIB & IRPL.
13/
For want of an accurate High Frequency radio propagation prediction at Coral Sea, the USS Lexington was lost.

14/

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More from @TrentTelenko

May 25
This⬇️

>>In total, I have more than 100 mapped hits on russian logistical means.

...means a lot in terms of truck attrition.

100 killed out of a truck fleet of projected 2,500 on this route is 4% of the total.
1/
Ukrainian military intelligence estimated Kamaz made 15,000 trucks from Feb 2022 to early 2026.

Call that period 49 months, and that's a Truck production rate of 300 a month.

100 trucks killed in a couple of months is "normal wastage."


2/
A hundred Russian trucks, with a high proportions of fuel tankers and wreckers concentrated on one or two supply roads or a single road junction in a couple of weeks is a horse of a different color.

That is anti-access area denial (A2AD) on a stick.

3/
Read 5 tweets
May 23
This is another reminder that Peer-to-Peer drone warfare is all about attrition loss curves.

Ukraine's drones has made the roads of occupied southern Ukraine into an "anti-access area denial" (A2AD) kill zones for Russian trucks.
1/ Image
Ukraine has achieved "Drone air superiority" over those roads rivaling WW2's Summer 1944 Allied air superiority over German occupied Normandy.

As a result, the Russian truck fleet is taking unsustainable attrition, particularly of its fuel tanker fleet.
2/ Image
Image
Image
This AFU fuel interdiction campaign is causing panic:

"Fuel shortages are beginning in Sevastopol. This is the beginning of the consequences of the enemy's systematic strikes on oil refineries and tanker trucks along the land corridor to Crimea."
3/
Read 5 tweets
May 22
If true, it looks like Russian truck fuel logistics has completely fallen part on the Rostov-Dzhankoy highway.

This has a lot of strategic geo-political implications.

A2AD & Truck Logistics 🧵

1/
Given few/no trains, these are the Russian truck logistical facts of life:

1. At ~300 miles/480 km, tactical truck's only payload is fuel for a return trip**

2/ Image
2. A 56 mile/90 km radius from a supply point allows three trips a day with refueling & mechanized logistics to load & unload a truck

3/ Image
Read 19 tweets
May 21
Texas has seven unique advantages in terms of infrastructure, political culture, and resource geography that make it uniquely suited to be the next industrial heartland of the USA.

The seven industrial development advantages of Texas 🧵
1/
They are as follows:

1. About 94% of land in Texas is privately held. This vastly limits what the Federal, State and local governments can do to in terms of regulations and NIMBY games.

2/ Image
2. Texas is mostly flat. Texas hill country is small beer compared to the Appalachian and Sierra Nevada mountain ranges. This compounds with #1 for industrial development.

3. Texas has a lot of water compared to the US west & sea access.

3/ Image
Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
May 20
I am still trying to see the military relevance of the MV-75 Cheyenne II.

Especially when 3rd rate powers like Iran have Qaem-118” (Ghaem-118) / “Misagh-358” jet engine powered, loitering, surface to air munitions.

1/4
The MV-75 Cheyenne II can't outrun a jet powered munition.

These things. ⬇️

2/4

None of the standard US Suppression of Enemy air Defense (SEAD) radar sensor detection practices work on a “Misagh-358.”

3/4
Read 5 tweets
May 12
This is one of the most logistically incompetent hot takes by any German journalist in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

95% getting through is a 5% loss rate per trip
95%(x) for 10 to 20 kills means x = 200 to 400 trucks on this route
10 trips means 40% total fleet loss - 80 to 160 trucks
1/Image
You can follow the 5% loss curve in this 500 unit fleet at 10 exposures in the graphic below.

A 40% fleet loss in 10 days from a 5% drone loss rate is logistical collapse for the Russian Army in occupied Ukraine.

Only some trying to get AfD eyeballs would say different.

2/ Image
This leaves out the fact that the Russian Army doesn't use *ANY* mechanized logistical enabler like pallets, Truck D-rings, forklifts, or telehandlers.

Russian trucks are in the drone kill zones 3 times as long as a Western truck due to loading times.

Receipts:
3/3
x.com/i/grok/share/e…
Read 4 tweets

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