Thread by @davidlazer

Did the J&J pause reduce demand for vaccinations, as some have asserted? (cough @NateSilver538 cough)

Our latest COVIDstates.org report evaluates this question, based on a large (20k) survey we had in the field the entire month of April.

The scale of the survey, and the rapid change of vax sentiment/status through April give us a pretty good look at dynamics down to the daily granularity. & the pretty clear answer, despite very high awareness, is that the impact of the pause on vax demand was: BUBKES.

What we see is a steady increase in the number of vaccinated people, & a steady decrease in vaccine enthusiastic and hesitant individuals. Vax resistance is quite steady.

So: J&J did present a short term supply shock, likely modestly slowing vax rates for a week or two? But the peak shots/day was always going to be in April, as we exhausted the easy to vaccinate enthusiasts.

This does not speak to other possible downsides of the pause (e.g., has J&J vaccine been undermined in the US & elsewhere?); nor upsides (has this enhanced trust of the regulatory/safety process?). But: there is no evidence that the pause caused a drop in demand.

W/
@Ognyanova

@_Jon_Green

@matthewabaum

@royperlis

@AdinaGitomer

@mattysimonson

@MauSantillana

@jennifer_lin16

@Atauslu
Alexi Quintana & Jamie Druckman

cc @Northeastern @RutgersU @NorthwesternU @Harvard @ShorensteinCtr @NUlabTMN