Because humans have mental & situational constraints.
A thread 👇
1/ Sports analytics has been able to provide value beyond traditional qualitative judgments because humans have limits that can be generally classified as:
- Mental constraints
- Situational constraints
2/ Let's start with the mental constraints.
Perhaps the most obvious mental constraint is that our memory is limited.
We don't have the capacity to remember and process everything that happened on every play.
What is win probability? How does it work? Is it ever "correct"?
If you ever find yourself asking these questions, this thread is for you 🧵
1/ Win probability (abbreviated "WP") is the likelihood that a team will win a particular game, expressed as a percentage.
50% WP: If the game is played 1000 times, the team will win ~500
10% WP: If the game is played 1000 times, the team will win ~100
2/ Importantly, WP is not a statement about whether a team WILL or WON'T win a game. A team having a 30% WP means they're MORE LIKELY TO LOSE THAN WIN but not that THEY'RE GOING TO LOSE.
There aren't many better ways to get exposure to teams (that are hiring) than to perform well in this. Also, sports analytics is fun.
More specifically to this year's topic (the secondary), many football analytics folks I've spoken to (including on @MeasurablesPod) agree this is perhaps the most difficult area of the game to quantify.
Excited to see how people tackle this problem (pun intended, obviously).