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David Barnard Profile picture
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11 May, 15 tweets, 6 min read
1/ This is one of the many reasons why I don’t think Apple is playing 4D chess with ATT. If this was such a deeply considered, strategic play to kneecap FB/GOOG and regain control of the App Store, they would’ve rolled things out differently given the current regulatory climate.
2/ My impression is that Apple started down this road very specifically to clean up the privacy disaster they enabled with the IDFA (and knew they couldn’t fix with App Review policy), which came to a head in 2018: wsj.com/articles/your-…
3/ That it may help their growing ad business and harm Facebook/Google was a side benefit not a primary motivation (other than as a way to force Facebook/Google’s hand on the privacy front).
4/ If you read their docs on Apple Search Ads targeting and measurement, they hold themselves to similar, if not higher, standards when it comes to 1st party data than they hold other ad networks to. (I disagree with @eric_seufert, but fascinating post) mobiledevmemo.com/apple-robbed-t…
5/ And here are the docs for the new AdServices API. Developers are able to get _some_ granular data since Apple controls what’s shared and knows it can’t be use for tracking. But you still have to request permission to track to get the “Detailed Payload”. developer.apple.com/documentation/…
6/ Apple has been slowly, but surely, growing their ad business over time, which is a smart way to expand services revenue. But it’s still small and incapable of mopping up much demand that won’t be served well by Facebook/Google due to ATT (even if CPMs might be driven up a bit)
7/ A single ad slot might be unseemly giving the timing, but it’s not especially meaningful in the grand scheme of things. We’ll see what happens at WWDC next month, but a much improved SKAdNetwork would suggest this really is a bout privacy.
8/ Maybe I’m being too naive about all this, but I still think Apple is _trying_ to usher in the future of privacy preserving ad targeting and measurement, a future where Facebook and Google could still do quite well, they just botched the rollout.
9/ And in typical Apple fashion, will spend the next few years cleaning up some of the messes they created. As I said back in January…
10/ Well, that was quick. Some of what I said in this thread is still likely correct (like the initial motivation for ATT), but the overall thesis was dead wrong. @eric_seufert is right, Apple is very brazenly trying to usurp app ad revenue on iOS.
11/ That said, as a user and a developer, I’m absolutely thrilled that Apple is brining back iAd! @bbatsell and I have been working for over a year on a huge update to @Weather_Up_ and our plan has been to remove ads.
12/ We’ve gotten so many complains about blinking casino ads, ads for guns, and other crap. Not to mention having to install so many shady, closed source ad libraries in the app. I’m going to sign up for this the minute Apple lets me.
13/ So to wrap this all up, it seems Apple has been trying to play 4D chess with ATT, and this would’ve landed much differently a couple years back when they started laying the ground work for it, but in the middle of the Epic trial and multiple antitrust investigations…
14/ For posterity, Apple may or may not actually be creating iAd 2.0 (which would be a huge bummer to me personally). So take this entire thread with multiple grains of salt.
15/ Ryan’s take is probably the right way to think about all of this (until we see concrete evidence to the contrary)

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More from @drbarnard

David Barnard Profile picture
12 May
This is one of the many ways regulation as the “cure” could be worse than the “disease” of paying Apple 30% of near-zero marginal cost digital goods and services. I went from zero tech experience to a successful software business in ~6 months thanks to the low friction.
And that’s why I continue to think that the best outcome here isn’t across the board drops in app store commissions (though free money is always nice), but exceptions for business models with incremental costs that don’t work at 30% or even 15% commissions.
As Epic itself recognized (in an email submitted as evidence in the case), they are about the least sympathetic company to be bringing this case. They are already wildly profitable even paying the 30%, so reducing or eliminating the commission is about more profit, not viability.
Read 4 tweets
David Barnard Profile picture
11 May
1/ This is what I care far more about than Apple taking a 30% cut on near-zero marginal cost digital goods and services. They are killing innovation by not having flexibility on the 30% for business models that require it and through App Review policies.
2/ “…if a significant number of people involved in iOS development start to fear App Review the way I have the past couple years, that changes the game. And I’m not just talking about indie developers like me. Contractors may steer their clients away from taking risks.”
3/ “Project managers at companies like Facebook and Pinterest may think twice before pitching a new feature. Venture capitalists may pass on a fledgling company because its product is too dependent on an iOS feature that might get rejected.” davidbarnard.com/post/101267474…
Read 4 tweets
David Barnard Profile picture
7 May
Over dinner I told my wife one of my tweets ended up in a court case against Apple. Her first reaction, without even knowing what it said: “Is Apple going to retaliate?!” So yeah, for almost 13 years of making a living on the App Store, we‘ve lived in fear of Apple.
I know so many kind, amazing people at Apple that have been so helpful to me over the years. But I think it’s lost on Apple institutionally just how disfuncional it’s relationship with developers really is. How much we fear App Review. How much we fear speaking out.
On an episode of the @SubClubHQ podcast, @ncsh commented how Salesforce runs its developer platform as a “benevolent dictator”. That’s been rattling around in my head since the moment he said it. In contrast, Apple comes across a bit more… Machiavellian. castro.fm/episode/gFDVuR
Read 5 tweets
David Barnard Profile picture
4 May
Part of me now wants to find a way to sue Apple just for the discovery. To better understand the discussion around the volumes of email I’ve sent about scam apps, App Store policies, etc. Haven’t seen one yet, but I’m expecting at least one of my emails to pop up in the Epic docs
I’ll just dox myself in the mean time. Here’s a good one from 2019 on App Store dark patterns and the Touch ID scam:
Never got a reply to this one. Had Apple taken me up on this, or just taken the situation more seriously, I would’ve helped clean up the App Store before @keleftheriou was forced to start doing it publicly.
Read 6 tweets
David Barnard Profile picture
4 May
Ah… the heady days of 2016, when I thought Apple was finally going to make more than token changes to the App Store. Felt the same in 2008, and 2009, and 2010, and 2011, and 2012, and 2013, and 2014, and 2015, and for some reason still hope Apple rethinks the App Store in 2021.
2/ 2014: “I’d love to see Apple wield that power to shape the App Store in ways that will sustain and encourage meaningful development over the long-term and not let the current success of the App Store blind it to issues that are impacting the trajectory of the App Store.”
3/ Source: davidbarnard.com/post/734393131…
Read 12 tweets
David Barnard Profile picture
4 May
1/ This email from @pschiller looks bad on the surface, but one of the things Apple should be arguing in this case is that by running the store and collecting the revenue they have protected consumers.
2/ Thought experiment: if instead of adding IAP to the App Store in 2009, Apple had allowed devs to collect payments directly inside apps, would there have been less fraud or more? Would subscriptions be easier to cancel or harder? Would paywalls be less deceptive or more?
3/ Speaking of fraud and deceptive paywalls, can’t help but link to this: nytimes.com/2021/04/03/us/…
Read 10 tweets

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