Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 12, 2021 10 tweets 10 min read Read on X
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation Radar proximity fuzes were a UK concept & engineering development that it took American industrial capacity to make real. (photo)

Time fuzes came in 2 flavors.

Flavor 1 was mechanical like an old Swiss watch. Flavor 2 was a burning pyrotechnic fuze.

Flavor 1 kept better time
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation Flavor 2 was far lighter and MUCH cheaper.

This meant barrages and director controlled pointer fire using mechanical fuzes were much more consistent in altitude.

But the pyrotechnic fuzes could reach higher flying USAAF bombers in 1944 that mechanical could not.
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation This article (link) is a good one for explaining German AA gun defenses as a system.

The key pacing item for German flak defenses were the directors, mechanical-analog fire control computers. (photos)

nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/ge…
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation The Luftwaffe could get guns and ammo faster than it could build & maintain directors.

This meant bigger "grand batteries" where 12, 16, or 24 guns were controlled by one director vs the pre-war 4 guns.

As the Luftwaffe replaced able bodied men with women, children and slaves
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation ...Flak got less accurate.

This was compensated for by firing "box barrages" ahead of American bomber formations which were ungainly clots of A/C that could not turn quickly.
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation The problem that most people have -- including on Adolph Hitler! -- is understanding the mission of AA defenses is not to shoot down planes, but to prevent planes from destroying their assigned target.

The attached table is from an 8th AF report on the accuracy of USAAF bombers
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation ...at the end of WW2 after the fall of France.

The Luftwaffe had to give up Box barrages due to ammo shortages, plus more and more flak guns were diverted to ground defenses.

yet German flak was still accomplishing most of it's mission of causing Allied bombs to miss.
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation Key fact -- 80% of all the bombs that fell on Germany in WW2 fell between June 6th 1944 and May 1945.

It was the fall of the occupied French territory used as a early warning & fighter base glacis that tubed German AA killing %.

RAF Bomber Command WW2 loss rates attached.
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation It was not until the Allied strategic bombers went after all the German Reich Bahn railway marshaling yards _Simultaneously_, starting with Operation Clarion in Mid-Feb 1945, that German AA gun defenses collapsed from a lack of ammo.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Mar 31
Not for US aircraft. ⬇⬇️

Hardened aircraft shelters are against the secular budget religion of US flying service flag ranks.

Not that other Western air forces are any better.

1/
The Chief of Air Staff RAAF 12 months ago gave a lecture trashing HAS as a bad idea and how "dispersal is better."

Dispersal didn't help USAF E-3G's in Saudi Arabia because they had nowhere to disperse too.

Places like Italy are politically off limits.
2/ Image
The RAAF CoS appeared to believe that every HAS was like the cheapest Iraqi HAS that we could crack with a single BLU-109/B, not the serious HAS needing multiple BLU-109/B down the same hole.

All of China's HAS built since 1991 are of the 2nd variety or are 'super-hardened' deep tunnels.

3/3Image
Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 29
War is a question of interests, not legality. Iran with, it's support of the October 7th attack, kicked off an existential war with Israel for the latter to prevent Iran from getting the A-bomb.

Israel won't survive as a nation after three Hiroshima class nukes...

Iran War🧵
1/
- riding ballistic warheads in a saturation missile attack - slam into its major cities.

The Trump Administration agreed with Israel on Iranian nukes both in the 12-day war and with the current war.

2/
The Iranian use of a space launcher as an ICBM against Diego Garcia made the current Iran war an existential one for the USA, given the EMP threat Iran represents to the unhardened American power grid.

Imagine the population of the American west - especially Las Vegas! -
3/
Read 9 tweets
Mar 27
How the mighty RAND has fallen.

Anyone claiming Iran will survive long term without explaining how Iran recovers from currency hyperinflation IN THE MIDDLE OF A WAR marks themselves as incompetent yo-yo's.

1/3

bylinesupplement.com/p/why-the-iran…
Hand waving, "They will use ForEx from oil and barter instead of the rial" is ignoring what happened during January 2026.

I dare anyone to do a word search at that link for the text strings "hyperinflation," "Rial" or "foreign exchange."

None are present.

2/
The Iran questions at hand are as follows:
1. Will the Regime fall via a controlled air campaign driven collapse, or
2. After a protracted Syria style civil war with 6 or 7 figure #'s murdered by IRGC thugs, &
3. Will Iran destroy the Gulf's power & H2O supply while dying?

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Mar 26
The Mullah Regime of Iran is in very deep trouble. Any critical thinker can see that.

What I find remarkable is how many people who should know better are so blinded by their hostility to Netanyahu and Trump that they ignore the military context and the domestic context inside Iran.

1/Image
The outcome of this war was decided before it began. The January 2026 uprisings occurred because the Iranian currency had collapsed and the economy was collapsing.

This was due to a massive increase in American economic warfare starting right at the beginning of the second Trump administration. Inflation was over 100% a year in January 2026.
2/
The war has made this much worse. Hyper-inflation has now set in and that has only one ending. IMO Iran’s economy and mullah regime will totally collapse in 4-5 months, even if the war ends immediately.

Even if oil exports last until then, hyperinflation means the oil industry workers will go out on strike and the regime protection forces must seek other jobs to feed their families. The latter has already started to happen.
3/Image
Read 15 tweets
Mar 21
Nothing says hyperinflation like a ten million currency unit banknote.

The US and Western nations need to be three weeks into planning for relief and stability operations to prevent mass starvation in Iran after the Mullah Regime goes down.

After the Mullah's🧵
1/
The horrid impending humanitarian disaster reality for Iran is the current regime is a dead man walking because of hyperinflation.

Iran lacks the administrative ability to replace the current hyperinflated currency in the traditional manner...

2/
...of a three day closing of the banks and handing out new note for old.

In addition, the close down of the internet for security reasons combined with the striking of Iranian bank data centers means there are no operable credit or debit cards.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Mar 17
The US-Israeli air campaign against Iran is following Warden's "Five Rings" system strategy.

Mullahs & IRGC leaders are inthe dead center of the 5-rings.

The Basij are usually considered "fielded forces" by analysts who don't understand the role of Regime Security Forces in a totalitarian regime.

1/Image
Regime Security Forces live in the "System Essentials" ring of a totalitarian government as they control the communications and information in a totalitarian society as a part of their anti-coup mission.

2/ Image
The fact that any major leadership[ meeting of the IRGC or Basij is catching several smart bombs addresses both of the "inner rings."

3/
Read 8 tweets

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