Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 12, 2021 10 tweets 10 min read Read on X
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation Radar proximity fuzes were a UK concept & engineering development that it took American industrial capacity to make real. (photo)

Time fuzes came in 2 flavors.

Flavor 1 was mechanical like an old Swiss watch. Flavor 2 was a burning pyrotechnic fuze.

Flavor 1 kept better time
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation Flavor 2 was far lighter and MUCH cheaper.

This meant barrages and director controlled pointer fire using mechanical fuzes were much more consistent in altitude.

But the pyrotechnic fuzes could reach higher flying USAAF bombers in 1944 that mechanical could not.
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation This article (link) is a good one for explaining German AA gun defenses as a system.

The key pacing item for German flak defenses were the directors, mechanical-analog fire control computers. (photos)

nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/ge…
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation The Luftwaffe could get guns and ammo faster than it could build & maintain directors.

This meant bigger "grand batteries" where 12, 16, or 24 guns were controlled by one director vs the pre-war 4 guns.

As the Luftwaffe replaced able bodied men with women, children and slaves
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation ...Flak got less accurate.

This was compensated for by firing "box barrages" ahead of American bomber formations which were ungainly clots of A/C that could not turn quickly.
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation The problem that most people have -- including on Adolph Hitler! -- is understanding the mission of AA defenses is not to shoot down planes, but to prevent planes from destroying their assigned target.

The attached table is from an 8th AF report on the accuracy of USAAF bombers
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation ...at the end of WW2 after the fall of France.

The Luftwaffe had to give up Box barrages due to ammo shortages, plus more and more flak guns were diverted to ground defenses.

yet German flak was still accomplishing most of it's mission of causing Allied bombs to miss.
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation Key fact -- 80% of all the bombs that fell on Germany in WW2 fell between June 6th 1944 and May 1945.

It was the fall of the occupied French territory used as a early warning & fighter base glacis that tubed German AA killing %.

RAF Bomber Command WW2 loss rates attached.
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation It was not until the Allied strategic bombers went after all the German Reich Bahn railway marshaling yards _Simultaneously_, starting with Operation Clarion in Mid-Feb 1945, that German AA gun defenses collapsed from a lack of ammo.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jan 22
Stephen Blank has always had a clear US policy view of Russia:

"Moreover, Putin and his circle consistently advance two intertwined claims:

1. Ukraine is inherently Russian;

2. this war steps from NATO’s alleged attempt to turn

1/
euromaidanpress.com/2025/01/22/tru…
...its supposed vassal state Ukraine into a member against Russia’s will.

Though some self-proclaimed experts still peddle this nonsense, this war’s true purpose is unmistakable:

2/
...the restoration of the Russian empire, without which Putin’s power – and that of his likely successors – cannot persist."

I'll add the following:

The arrival & mass production of Chairman Xi's Corvus Mulberry barges (pictured below behind a Chinese car ferry⬇️)...

3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 20
400 Houthi aerial drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles were fired at/near USN ships since Oct 2023

120 SM-2 & 80 SM-6 missiles, 160 five-inch main guns rounds, plus a combined 20 Evolved Sea Sparrow and SM-3 missiles engaged them.

Drone War Cost Trades 🧵
1/ Image
Tyler Rogoway has reported the following missile costs:

SM-2 Block IIIC - $2,530,000 per missile.
SM-6 - $4,270,000 per missile.
Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM) RIM-162 Block II - $1,490,000 per missile.
SM-3 -$12,510,000 for the Block IB, and $28,700,000 for the Block IIA
2/ Image
So:

120 SM-2 * $2.53 million = $303.6 million
80 SM-6 * $4.27 million = $341.6 million
12 ESSM (guess) = $17.88 million
6 SM-3 IB (guess) * $12.51 million = $75 million
2 SM-3 IIA (guess) * $28.7 million = $57.4 million

3/ Image
Image
Image
Read 16 tweets
Jan 17
The fire and forget millimeter wave (MMW) radar guidance AGM-114L "Hellfire Longbow" being referred in the War Zone post as "a new anti-drone armament" for the LCS actually ceased production in 2005 and reaches end of life in 2025.

1/
One of the reasons the AGM-114L was dropped from the US Army M-Shorad is the US Army didn't want to pay money to recertify the AGM-114L inventory...

2/
...with the AGM-179 Joint Air-to-Ground Missile (JAGM) equipped with dual-mode Semi-Active Laser (SAL) and millimeter wave (MMW) radar seeker just entering production.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jan 16
It is a bad week to be Russia.

Qatar, one of the biggest LNG exporter, just announced it's new six MTPA (million tonnes per annum) nitrogen fertilizer plant.

The chemical process involved is natural gas->ammonia -> urea for a
1/
dohanews.co/qatar-set-to-b…
...vertically integrated facility.

This new Qatar facility means Middle Eastern fertilizer industrial plants have now displaced Russia on the world fertilizer market.

2/
This makes Russia falling out of the world Ag-sector fertilizer supply chain a non-event going forward.

The Qatari sheiks made a good move here to capture value up the supply chain from energy.

Plus, Urea and Ammonia store far better than liquified natural gas.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jan 15
I disagree with the thoughts in this post for multiple reasons.⬇️

1st, Ukraine made a systematic effort in Oct 2024 to take out multiple Russian alcohol distilleries.

So distilleries are on the AFU strategic bombing list.

1/
2nd, there are a lot of things that alcohol is a chemical feedstock for that Russia desperately needs to make.

I've talked about synthetic rubber for tires in another thread.


2/
A short list of Russian industrial alcohol uses include:

o It's used as an industrial solvent.
o It's used as a precursor for numerous plastics.
o It's used as a precursor for some explosives.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 15
Ukraine struck another Russian alcohol plant?

I'm beginning to think the Russians have been using alcohol to make butadiene based synthetic rubber.

My WW2 US mobilization resources say grain produced alcohol was the primary chemical feedstock for the synthetic rubber

1/
...in US tires until August 1944.

The process was invented by a Russian, Via wikipedia:

"The Russian chemist Sergei Vasilyevich Lebedev was the first to polymerize butadiene in 1910....

2/
...In 1926 he invented a process for manufacturing butadiene from ethanol, and in 1928, developed a method for producing polybutadiene using sodium as a catalyst.

The government of the Soviet Union strove to use polybutadiene as an alternative to natural rubber ...

3/
Read 6 tweets

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