Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 12, 2021 10 tweets 10 min read Read on X
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation Radar proximity fuzes were a UK concept & engineering development that it took American industrial capacity to make real. (photo)

Time fuzes came in 2 flavors.

Flavor 1 was mechanical like an old Swiss watch. Flavor 2 was a burning pyrotechnic fuze.

Flavor 1 kept better time
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation Flavor 2 was far lighter and MUCH cheaper.

This meant barrages and director controlled pointer fire using mechanical fuzes were much more consistent in altitude.

But the pyrotechnic fuzes could reach higher flying USAAF bombers in 1944 that mechanical could not.
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation This article (link) is a good one for explaining German AA gun defenses as a system.

The key pacing item for German flak defenses were the directors, mechanical-analog fire control computers. (photos)

nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/ge…
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation The Luftwaffe could get guns and ammo faster than it could build & maintain directors.

This meant bigger "grand batteries" where 12, 16, or 24 guns were controlled by one director vs the pre-war 4 guns.

As the Luftwaffe replaced able bodied men with women, children and slaves
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation ...Flak got less accurate.

This was compensated for by firing "box barrages" ahead of American bomber formations which were ungainly clots of A/C that could not turn quickly.
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation The problem that most people have -- including on Adolph Hitler! -- is understanding the mission of AA defenses is not to shoot down planes, but to prevent planes from destroying their assigned target.

The attached table is from an 8th AF report on the accuracy of USAAF bombers
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation ...at the end of WW2 after the fall of France.

The Luftwaffe had to give up Box barrages due to ammo shortages, plus more and more flak guns were diverted to ground defenses.

yet German flak was still accomplishing most of it's mission of causing Allied bombs to miss.
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation Key fact -- 80% of all the bombs that fell on Germany in WW2 fell between June 6th 1944 and May 1945.

It was the fall of the occupied French territory used as a early warning & fighter base glacis that tubed German AA killing %.

RAF Bomber Command WW2 loss rates attached.
@boys_ian @Steveho25139795 @clark_aviation It was not until the Allied strategic bombers went after all the German Reich Bahn railway marshaling yards _Simultaneously_, starting with Operation Clarion in Mid-Feb 1945, that German AA gun defenses collapsed from a lack of ammo.

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More from @TrentTelenko

May 31
This is not new.⬇️

Enemies of the West have been using cellphone networks against Western militaries since the 2006 Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

The Houthi are currently targeting ships in the Red Sea using the cell network they control to ping smart phones of ship crews.
1/
I did a thread on the exploitation of cell networks for drone targeting on December 2023.

2/
David Axe was talking about an early version of the Russian Drone cell phone navigation Serhii "Flash" is discussing in 2023.

3/
Read 9 tweets
May 30
I have been beating up on the Field Artillery crowd on X for literally years over the rapid firepower growth curve of drones compared to tube artillery.

Drones do cluster munitions far more accurately than tube artillery.

1/
Drones have more bang than a 155mm shell for a couple of years.

2/
And the shortages of Ukrainian artillery shells through out the Russo-Ukrainian War has meant drone surveillance was the prerequisite for shooting any tube artillery at all, be it cluster munition or unitary.

3/
Read 5 tweets
May 23
We have seen an evolution from 7-inch to 10-inch and now to 15-inch propeller drone designs for FPV's since 2023 in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

The question going forward is the choice of fiber optic guided or radio links.

Drone CRPA🧵
1/
The cost of putting serious radio link electronic counter-countermeasures (ECCM) on an FPV drone using a CRPA is way high.

Grok has an adequate estimate on what Chinese CRPA's cost.

2/
grok.com/share/c2hhcmQt…Image
Even basic Russian Kometa 4-channel design CRPAs are hundreds of dollars apiece.

To beat intensive ECM/Jamming at the front lines with 8, 12, or 16 element CRPA will cost hundreds to thousands per drone.

Plus CRPA weight & power drain impacts the drone w/bigger batteries.

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Read 6 tweets
May 22
Guns rule in the age of drones, but the "muffin top" Burke class DDG's are so top heavy with the SLQ-32(V)7 Surface Electronic Warfare Improvement Program (SEWIP) installation that the idea of adding 76mm or 57mm autocannons is insane from the metacentric height POV.

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What to do?

You can proliferate light precision guided weapon mounts. Which can be the 21st century version of the 20mm oerlikon.

A Burke needs multiple Hydra and APKWS 70mm semi-active laser guided rocket mounts on the centerline and both broadsides.

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The US Navy is already slapping deck crew operated 25mm autocannons and .50 caliber HMG all over Burke class DDG's already.

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Read 5 tweets
May 21
I've been posting about the inertia of Russian civil infrastructure industrial disinvestment for some time regarding Russian railways and it's foreign bearings.

The key tell going forward is triage.

This western part problem also applies to Russian Coal fired power plants
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...and we are seeing triage there now that will apply to Russian railways later.

Non-Russian core populations areas of Russia have been cut off from modernization and restoration of thermal power plants due to a lack of Western parts.

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There are grave implications in that for the electrified Trans-Siberian railway.

Russian railways are already seeing repair trains derail on the journey to go fix derailments.

3/
Read 6 tweets
May 21
While this @Tatarigami_UA 🧵concentrates on the modernization of pieces of the Russian military-industrial base as a cautionary tale.

It leaves a throw away line about economic collapse that leaves out the reality of Russian industrial/infrastructure disinvestment which will
1/
...continue for years even if the fighting stops tomorrow.

The rundown of Russian stocks of western railway bearing will continue for years because the specialty steel supply chain feeding western bearing manufacturers has shut down unused capacity after 3-years of war.

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It will take years to "turn on" the specialty steel pipeline to even begin to make new bearings for the Russian railways.

Compounding the matter is the extreme age of the Russian rolling stock fleet of 1.1 million freight cars/wagons at the beginning of the war.

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Read 23 tweets

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