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TheValuesVoter (Also on Threads and BlueSky) Profile picture
@TheValuesVoter
May 12, 2021 • 11 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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Of the five states that Joe Biden flipped from red to blue in 2020 to win the Presidency, only one of them, Wisconsin, had a notable difference between the final result and the Real Clear Politics Average of pre-election polls for the state.

They turned out largely as expected.
In Arizona, the RCP Average predicted a Biden win of 0.9 points.

Biden won Arizona by 0.3 points.

Only a 0.6 point difference from what the polls, on average, predicted.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…
Also, if you look at the graph of the RCP Average for Arizona polls, Trump did not lead in the state from March 7th, 2020 (right around the time COVID kicked in) until, briefly, just before the election on October 31st.

And the Dems picked up a Senate seat in the state also.
In Georgia, the RCP Average expected that Trump would win by 1 point.

Biden ended up winning Georgia by 0.3 points. A 1.3 point difference in polling versus actual.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…
Trump had led Georgia (which had been trending toward Dems since after the 2012 election) until October 1st - right around the time HE was rushed to Walter Reed with COVID and right after his disastrous first debate performance.

From then it was a dogfight. Which Trump lost.
In Michigan, the RCP Average predicted a Biden win of 4.2 points.

Biden won Michigan by 2.8 points. The polls were off by only 1.4 points.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…
And if you look at the RCP Average for Michigan, you can see that Biden was always ahead of Trump in the state. Sometimes considerably. Trump made a late rally. But it was nowhere close enough. And he barely won Michigan the first time. He lost.
In Pennsylvania, the RCP average predicted a Biden win by 1.2 points (48.7 to 47.5).

Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2 points (50.0 to 48.8).

The polls were exactly right in Pennsylvania.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…
Also, if you look at the polls for Pennsylvania, Donald Trump never led in the state. He was consistently fairly well behind Joe Biden. He did make a late push if you look at the right side of the graph. But it wasn't enough. He lost.
Wisconsin is the only of the states that changed hands between 2016 and 2020 in which the pre-election polls differed significantly from the final result.

The RCP Average predicted Biden would win WI by 6.7 points. He won WI by only 0.7 points. A 6 point difference.
What does all this mean? It means that this is a separate data point, completely different from the certified election results, the audits and recounts, voting machines, yada yada yada. And it complements the official results. Trump lost. As he was expected to.

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More from @TheValuesVoter

TheValuesVoter (Also on Threads and BlueSky) Profile picture
Oct 2
So, my take on the debate. I listened to the audio of all of it but only saw a little of the live video. And so I listened very intently to everything Walz and Vance SAID and not to the visual aspects of their respective deliveries.
I’ve known people like both of these guys all my life.

Listening to Vance’s answers, he sounded like many of the empty suits I’ve met in life. Lots of words. Confident delivery of the words. But he didn’t say much. And that’s not even counting some of his very blatant lies.
Many of Vance’s answers, even the ones which were not attempts to rewrite history, lacked any level of detail. He sounded like a student who read the Cliff’s Notes but never read the book.
Read 8 tweets
TheValuesVoter (Also on Threads and BlueSky) Profile picture
Sep 25
Let’s cut to the chase and talk about the REAL reason some of the prominent Republican politicians and pundits who know and even publicly admit that Trump is unfit either still support him or won’t actively vote against him.

Some of them know the cost. And don’t want to pay it.
They saw what happened to brave politicians like @Liz_Cheney and @AdamKinzinger who told the truth about Trump and didn’t later try to unsay it (like @NikkiHaley). It cost them their careers in the GOP.

They see them. And don’t want to be them.
@Liz_Cheney @AdamKinzinger @NikkiHaley The pundits saw how conservative pundits who told the truth about Donald Trump fared. Some of them lost prominent gigs like @WalshFreedom. Some of them lost affiliates like @MedvedSHOW.

Some of the others saw the cost they paid. And simply didn’t want to pay it themselves.
Read 4 tweets
TheValuesVoter (Also on Threads and BlueSky) Profile picture
Sep 14
As professing Christians (including some folks who actually are real Christians) spread false and dangerous information about Haitian immigrants and promote other lies from proven chronic liars), remember what the Bible says about lies and lying.
Ephesians 4:25, Amplified:
“Therefore, rejecting all falsehood [whether lying, defrauding, telling half-truths, spreading rumors, any such as these], speak truth each one with his neighbor, for we are all parts of one another [and we are all parts of the body of Christ].”
And there are also some pretty explicit warnings in Scripture about being a liar, whatever exactly that means.

We tend to focus like a laser beam on sexual sins and ignore a lot of other behaviors the Bible associates with condemnation.
Read 6 tweets
TheValuesVoter (Also on Threads and BlueSky) Profile picture
Sep 12
A quick question to my white brethren who, even in this current Trump era, continue to vote for Republicans:

Have you ever noticed what a high percentage of the arguments those politicians appeal to you with are based on appealing to fear? Specifically fear of “them?”
They play you the same movie script over and over and over again, with only the villains being cast differently. But you keep buying tickets to watch the movie.

It’s always some variant of “them” coming to take your [FILL IN THE BLANK]. Always.
First they were supposed to take your guns. Many Democratic Presidencies later, you still have your guns. You have more than you ever had before, actually.

Then the pitch was that “woke” teachers were going to take your kids and make them hate themselves.
Read 7 tweets
TheValuesVoter (Also on Threads and BlueSky) Profile picture
Sep 8
A good half of society is all but ready to overlook Trump’s:

- 34 felony convictions for fraud covering up an illegal campaign contribution (Michael Cohen was sent to prison for his part of the scheme BY THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION).

…
- A federal indictment for taking, refusing to return documents containing nuclear weapons info, war plans and the vulnerabilities of both the U.S. and our adversaries. And then trying to destroy the evidence.
- A federal indictment for trying to steal an election which he and his advisors knew he lost.

- A state inducement for trying to steal that state’s electoral votes. A case in which the defendant was literally caught on tape asking the Secretary of State to “find” him votes.
Read 6 tweets
TheValuesVoter (Also on Threads and BlueSky) Profile picture
Aug 20
The only reason that the election may even be close is because Donald Trump is singularly held to the most generous grading curve ever applied to any politician in U.S. history.

He is held to a different set of rules. The lowest standard ever applied to an elected leader.
Trump can lie, multiple provable lies every minute he speaks, and it’s not considered news. He’s just being Trump.

But if his opponents mess up even minor details in any statement they make - that becomes a matter of concern to the public.
Donald Trump is a man who cheated on his first wife with his second wife and on his third wife with a porn star and a playmate. The porn star testified under oath and the playmate stated on the record he told them they reminded him of his DAUGHTER.

Reporters just yawn. Meh.
Read 9 tweets

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