Of the five states that Joe Biden flipped from red to blue in 2020 to win the Presidency, only one of them, Wisconsin, had a notable difference between the final result and the Real Clear Politics Average of pre-election polls for the state.
They turned out largely as expected.
In Arizona, the RCP Average predicted a Biden win of 0.9 points.
Biden won Arizona by 0.3 points.
Only a 0.6 point difference from what the polls, on average, predicted.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…
Also, if you look at the graph of the RCP Average for Arizona polls, Trump did not lead in the state from March 7th, 2020 (right around the time COVID kicked in) until, briefly, just before the election on October 31st.
And the Dems picked up a Senate seat in the state also.
In Georgia, the RCP Average expected that Trump would win by 1 point.
Biden ended up winning Georgia by 0.3 points. A 1.3 point difference in polling versus actual.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…
Trump had led Georgia (which had been trending toward Dems since after the 2012 election) until October 1st - right around the time HE was rushed to Walter Reed with COVID and right after his disastrous first debate performance.
From then it was a dogfight. Which Trump lost.
In Michigan, the RCP Average predicted a Biden win of 4.2 points.
Biden won Michigan by 2.8 points. The polls were off by only 1.4 points.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…
And if you look at the RCP Average for Michigan, you can see that Biden was always ahead of Trump in the state. Sometimes considerably. Trump made a late rally. But it was nowhere close enough. And he barely won Michigan the first time. He lost.
In Pennsylvania, the RCP average predicted a Biden win by 1.2 points (48.7 to 47.5).
Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2 points (50.0 to 48.8).
The polls were exactly right in Pennsylvania.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…
Also, if you look at the polls for Pennsylvania, Donald Trump never led in the state. He was consistently fairly well behind Joe Biden. He did make a late push if you look at the right side of the graph. But it wasn't enough. He lost.
Wisconsin is the only of the states that changed hands between 2016 and 2020 in which the pre-election polls differed significantly from the final result.
The RCP Average predicted Biden would win WI by 6.7 points. He won WI by only 0.7 points. A 6 point difference.
What does all this mean? It means that this is a separate data point, completely different from the certified election results, the audits and recounts, voting machines, yada yada yada. And it complements the official results. Trump lost. As he was expected to.
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