Thread by @trevortombe

Today's COVID vaccination update:

- Total shots given: 16,904,709
- Shots per 100 people: 44.5
- Shots reported today: 346,777
- Inventory: 9.7 days (at avg pace)
- Adults w/ 1+ Shots: 49.4%

Source: covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtra…

Canada is now up to 16.9 million shots given -- which is 83.9% of the total 20.1 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 3,021,250 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 1.3 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.

Canada's pace of vaccination:

Today's 346,777 shots given compares to an average of 333,806/day over the past week and 248,829/day the week prior.

- Pace req'd for 2 doses to 75% of Canadians by Sept 30: 284,449
- At current avg pace, we reach 75% by Sep 09

Based on the share of people with 1 or more doses (a weaker threshold), at Canada's current pace we reach 50% by May 22 and 75% by June 22. We reach 75% of *adults only* (age 16+) by June 6.

Gray lines are past projections. This illustrates the extent of recent changes.

Recent modeling suggests health rules may be safely eased once 75% of adults have at least one dose and 20% have two canada.ca/content/dam/ph…

This requires ~30M shots. We're on pace for that by June 20.

Turning to individual provinces, here's total shots given and share of delivered doses used.

- Most shots given: YT at 120 doses per 100 people
- Fewest: NS at 40

- Highest share of delivered doses used: SK with 94%
- Lowest: NU with 65%

A more detailed look at provs/terrs:

- Highest overall: YT at 64% receiving at least one shot
- Most 1st doses only: QC at 41% receiving that shot
- Most Fully Vaccinated: YT at 56%
- Fewest Vaccinated: PE at 33%

Looking forward, here's time to reach 75% of *adults* w/ 1+ doses based on the latest 7-day average daily pace.

- SK fastest at 23 days.
- PEI slowest at 46 days.

How does Canada compare to others? Currently, Canada ranks 6th out of 37 OECD countries in terms of the share of the population that is at least partially vaccinated. In terms of total doses per 100, Canada is 7th.

Source: ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat…

Canada/US comparison.

Received at least one dose:
- Top Prov: QC, 43.4% of pop
- Top State: VT, 62.8
- Top Terr: YT, 63.7

Fully vaccinated:
- Top Prov: AB, 7.3% of pop
- Top State: ME, 46.6
- Top Terr: YT, 55.9

Sources: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra… and covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtra…

At Canada's latest 7-day average daily pace, the share of people w/ 1 or more doses rises by 0.83% per day. The US rises by 0.23% per day.

- We match the US share in 9 days.
- Reaching the current US share takes 6 days.

But that's 1+ doses, here's a comparison of daily shots given per 100 people. In Canada, this rises by 0.88 per day. The US rises by 0.65 per day.

- Projected out, we reach 100 doses 32 days after the US.
- Reaching the current US rate takes 40 days.

Finally, here's a selection across several metrics/groups of how Canada ranks globally. Pick your preferred measure!

Oh! And haven't tweeted this one in a while, but we're now into the fifth row of balls! 💉🥳

Feedback welcome on this one:

To track how Canada's pace declines over the next few weeks, and how that compares to others around the world, I think this will be a useful plot to follow. Thoughts? (Steeper lines are better.)