Gabriel Castro, CFA Profile picture
May 13, 2021 7 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Excelentes resultados del grupo $TK. Tesis materializándose en línea con lo esperado. ¿Compartís mi feeling de que siempre que presenta bien TK la bolsa y el oil se hunden y nos termina arrastrando? 👇
$TGP. Resultados mejor de lo esperado. El anterior trimestre habían guiado -4M para Q12021 ($0.57eps) y han reportado +0.5M ($0.61eps). Fijado un barco a 1 año + ejercida opción por parte del cliente en otro + spot market-linked otro = 98% de la flota fija a 2021
La reducción de la deuda y la refinanciación a mejores tipos hace que el net income mejore la evolución del EBITDA. Aún así, la deuda total desciende únicamente 42M este trimestre. Esto es temporal y revertirá a lo largo del año: -39M "other operating assets and liabilities".
Buenos resultados, sector en crecimiento estructural que debería de cotizar a múltiplos más altos, excelente flota y backlog, desapalancamiento en línea, dividendo atractivo. Tesis clara, sin sorpresas con Dividend yield 7.8%. Es nuestra "liquidez"
$TNK. Resultados sorprendentemente buenos. Estimábamos una perdida de $0.90 y reportó sólo -$0.65eps. Reduciendo los costes financieros mediante recompra y refinanciación de leasings. Posición alta de liquidez $371M. Hay que esperar al inicio del super-ciclo.
A pesar de que aún quedan algunos meses flojos, los fundamentales para 4Q y adelante son cada vez más alentadores. Demanda de oil recuperando niveles pre-covid, inventarios en el mar normalizados. Sentarse y esperar!
TK. Sin costes SG&A. Buena gestión en Banff que resta menos de lo esperado. Foinaven desaparecerá de balance pronto sin ningún coste por la decisión de BP (incluso espero un pequeño beneficio extraordinario). Hummingbird único activo y sigue generando un excelente cash flow.

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More from @gabcasla

Sep 20, 2024
Yesterday, Jefferies raised TP on $NMM up to $80. Omar sees the company undervalued from a NAV perspective ($155 NAV vs 57 current price), but more importantly on FCF (25% FCF yield) with room to grow because the newbuildings to be delivered


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Navios is a unique shipping company with exposure to three segments: tankers, dry bulk, and containerships. Those segments have their own supply/demand dynamics and provide fantastic stability. That means NMM can play spot or take longer charters, depending on the cycle view
For example, knowing the order book, I think it's wise to have a longer duration on containers and play the spot in Capes/VLCCs where there is less backlog and compelling demand while being a bit more conservative on the smaller sizes. That's precisely what NMM is doing right now
Read 5 tweets
Aug 26, 2024
$NMM The stock is up almost 90% YTD adding around $25/sh. However, the stock is still ridiculously cheap!
As I recently recently in an interview with @MarhelmData, NAV is up around $40/sh YTD (from $90/100 to 130/140) and could reach $150 by the year end. JF estimates a $158 NAV! Image
Moreover, NMM is nearing its leverage target and has recently started buybacks. There is no need to explain how accretive these repurchases are to NAV given the current discounts. Image
AF is renewing the fleet without taking risks. She understands that newbuildings are expensive from an historical perspective, so she always try to mitigate the residual value risk with LT charters. We've seen between 50 to 100% paybacks on acquisitions by the end of the charters
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Read 5 tweets
Jul 4, 2024
Pax Global communicated a Profit Warning last Friday in line with HK regulations. In the statement, Pax announced that they expect a 30% to 40% decrease in net profit compared to 1H 2023.
Although it could surprise many of you, it's not that bad when you dive in 👇 Image
Last March, Pax announced an ambitious guidance. They were looking to grow 5%/15% in revenue and maintain a stable operating margin. That was somewhat surprising considering the POS business has a high dependence on the retail sector and the retail environment is very tough Image
POS replacement happens every 4-5 years and provides stability to Pax, but the POS segment needs new shop openings to grow. Closings and openings are a key driver, and shops are resisting nowadays, but demand is weak in the current interest environment
Read 13 tweets
Oct 30, 2023
When I pitch Nagacorp, one of the main pushbacks is around Chinese tourism coming back. More or less, investors understand how profitable and FCF generative the business is, the strong balance sheet and the shareholder-friendly policy

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In 2019, Nagacorp contributed approximately 27% of local GDP tourism growth and approximately 1.2% of the national GDP in Cambodia, therefore, Nagacorp is very correlated with Cambodia's tourism which grew strongly until covid
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By now, the Chinese aren't traveling abroad. Three reasons explain it: 1. Government promotes domestic tourism, 2. Still fear of Covid and problems that might arise if they get infected out of China, 3. Less budget as macro isn't very good

cnbc.com/2023/10/09/chi…
Read 7 tweets
Oct 26, 2023
Nagacorp management are likely in shock after reading Moody's research and the stock reaction. Naga issued and statement confirming the cash position by October 17. It would not be surprising if Naga had not reported the cash on September 30 just 20 days ago! Image
By the end of September, Naga had $298M cash and 472M debt (bond maturity June 2024). Cash has increased to $324M, but some working capital movements exist. Naga is making 28/29M monthly EBITDA or 342M annual EBITDA. Taxes are included while net interest are 30M.
No growth capex as the company has postponed Naga 3, while maintenance capex is 20-30M per year. That means 282M FCF per year and 212M in the next 9 months. 298M cash + 80M dr.Chen loan + 212M cash generation= 590M which is enough to cover 472M payment in June 2024
Read 5 tweets
Oct 24, 2023
Nagacorp: I cannot believe it. Moody's (again) scaring retailers arguing that refinancing risk still exists after Dr. Chen's $80M loan. That explains the recent weakness after removing the refinancing risk:

asgam.com/index.php/2023…
It's funny that the analyst expects $350M EBITDA in 2023 and $485M in 2024 while I'm forecasting 300M for 2023 and 350M for 2024, therefore, taking a much more cautious approach. However, I don't see any refinancing risks, but room enough Image
Naga is making 28/29M EBITDA runrate. Below EBITDA are no taxes, only capex (very limited) and interest costs. Said that, even in a super bearish scenario, Dr. Chen, who owns 70% of Naga, will provide 20-30M extra loan. Sorry, I cannot see the refi risk

Read 5 tweets

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