This is a very back-of-an-envelope way of doing this, but: here's how Labour leaders have done at the various key electoral metrics... jonn.substack.com/p/statisticall…
One thing I think is unhealthy about the Labour party's forever war is that it's baked in that there's always a chunk of the left that's rooting for the leader to fail because it proves them *right*. This feels like it may, on balance, be a bad thing.
But I only started paying proper attention c2014. How much was this true before then?
basically, how much is this Corbyn, how much is this Twitter, and how much has this just been always true only I wasn't looking before?
Writing this week's newsletter. If you haven't already subscribed, then a) oh my god how could you and b) it's okay, it's okay, there's still time to correct this oversight, sign up here jonn.substack.com/about
c) I just finished a bit headlined "Here's what's wrong with the name of every tube line", and let's be honest that's the sort of shit you people want me to provide you with like some kind of transport-themed performing seal, so jonn.substack.com/about
the number of subscribers who signed up following that tweet suggests that this is, indeed, the sort of shit you people want me to provide you with
Well, the big day is finally here so I thought it might be worth a quick thread, setting out some of the key things to look out for tonight. (1/?)
Around 7 EST - so just after midnight in the UK - we should behold a pale horse whose rider will lay waste one fourth of the Earth. But that's just an average! According to Nate Silver, on a good night for Trump, the horseman could lay waste to as much as half (2/?)
Some time around 3am London time the Seventh Seal will split asunder and the angelic trumpeting will presage the coming of the final battle. That's worth listening out for, especially if we're looking at high turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania. (3/?)