Thread by @t_d_h_nair

The real number of Covid deaths in India will never come out - a thread.
According to Gujarati daily Divya Bhaskar, 65,085 more deaths were registered in the state this year from March 1 to May 10 in comparison with the same period last year. (1/-)

Official Covid death numbers of the state are only 4.218 people.
As per the latest estimates, Gujarat's population is 7.1 crores with a density of population of 308/km². According to the National Family Health Survey 2019-20, 95.7% of the urban population and 91.6% of (2/-)

the rural population of the state registered deaths in the family with civil authorities. i.e., 93% of deaths in Gujarat are registered.
Even though the state's public health infrastructure in rural areas is in pathetic condition, it is better in urban areas. (3/-)

Let us compare these numbers with that of UP and Bihar.
The latest estimated population of UP is 23 crore with a density of population of 832/km². Though the NFHS5 did not cover the state in its latest survey for us to know the percentage of death registration, (4/-)

we have media reports to estimate the current situation.
On May 7, Hindustan Times reported that the number of applications Lucknow Municipal Corporation receive for death certificate has gone up from 10-14 to 80-100 a day (5/-)
hindustantimes.com/india-news/dem…

since the second wave started. That is a whopping 650% increase.
Lucknow, being the state capital, is one of the most developed areas in UP. Health infrastructure, in comparison to other areas, is much better in Lucknow. 77% of the UP population lives in rural areas. (6/-)

When it comes to public health infrastructure, Up is on the bottom line in the list of states, just above Bihar.
The "Vital Statistics of India based on Civil Registration System 2018" shows that the state registers only 60.8% of deaths. (7/-)

If the state capital itself sees a 650% increase in the number of deaths due to the pandemic, what will be happening in the rural areas of Uttar Pradesh will be really frightening. (8/-)

Bihar has the worst health Infrastructure in the country. An estimated 13.5 crore people live in the state. Population density is more than 1100 people/km². According to NFHS 5 data, only 37% of deaths in the state are registered. (9/-)

The state has officially reported only around 3,500 deaths since the starting of 2020. Media reports suggest, in many rural villages, more than 70% of people are infected. But, the Nitish Kumar government reported a 50.4% reduction in fresh infections in the last 7 days. (10/-)

Statistical models by experts suggest, even by the conservative estimates, nearly four and a half lakh people might have been died due to Covid in the two states of Bihar and UP Alone. (11/-)

State govts will never take any initiative to collect and release the factual numbers. Due to the lack of awareness and poverty, people think it is not necessary to register deaths. The centre will say it reported what states declared. (12/-)

The real number of Covid deaths in this country will never come out. Even though everyone knows those numbers are heavily fudged, people will be forced to believe that the government published numbers are the final figures. (13. End)