I'm skipping Symmetry Sage again (I promise I'll get to it) to talk about Divine Gambit today. 7.66 ALSA, taken just above Defend the Campus, making it the second-least-drafted Mystical Archive card in Bo3 (Claim the Firstborn is the least). 1/x
I suspect this one being so low is partly due to its context in other formats. Not only was it not great in KHM, it was also ridiculed a lot for being another example of Wizards printing bad white cards, as it's even worse in constructed and Commander: 2/x
Part of what made it mediocre in KHM was the existence of Ravenous Lindwurm at common, paired with most white decks being aggressive. I actually liked it more than most, as I drafted many midrangey green white decks, but it was still mostly a 23rd card in my decks. 3/x
However, as is a recurring theme in these threads, context matters a lot. Creature density is much lower than usual, with Summonings and other token-makers replacing creatures. There are a lot of decks with <10 creatures, and even aggressive decks have a lot of spells. 4/x
This is especially true for large creatures, which is especially important for Gambit. There are only 6 creatures with MV>5 (compared to 12 in KHM); Cogwork Archivist is the only one at common. It's very unlikely for Gambit to give up much tempo, even in the mid-game. 5/x
Another factor that makes Gambit better is the suite of hand disruption in black. Humiliate, Agonizing Remorse, Duress, Inquisition of Kozilek, and Elite Spellbinder all help you check to see if the way is clear for Gambit, and some of them even help clear the way. 6/x
Plus, learn/lesson being the main form of card advantage means that a large fraction of extra cards drawn in games will be face-up lessons, making it all the more easy to judge when it's best to cast Gambit. 7/x
And finally, even though white is the most aggressive color in this format, its aggression comes mostly in the form of fliers. If you exile your opponent's only flying blocker, you don't care if they put in a 3/3. Plus, even the white decks often want tools to grind. 8/x
So where does all of this leave Gambit? I consider it white's second best removal spell, a bit behind Rise but clearly ahead of Expel. Comparing with other colors, I'd put it somewhere between Mage Duel and Onslaught: basically unconditional, but not for the early game. 9/x
Conclusion: don't let Divine Gambit's performance in Commander, Constructed, or even KHM color your judgement of it in STX. The context of the set makes Gambit a very good, almost unconditional removal spell that I'd play even in most of my aggressive white decks. 10/10
Since I play Gambit in basically all my white decks, I've picked out some of my most aggressive trophies with Gambit in them as examples:
Was talking on Discord a bit about why I think the UW tap deck failed design-wise this format, and figured I'd translate my points here.
So, here's a thread: 1/x
It's pretty clear by now that the UW tap archetype just isn't working in WOE.
UW is the worst color pair in WOE on 17lands - just barely above 50% winrate, which is atrocious, same as LTR scry elves.
I think the reasons for this are actually quite interesting. 2/x
1. The simplest reason is just that blue and white are the two worst colors in WOE.
Every set has color imbalances, this set happens to have those converge on UW being weak. The card quality just isn't there, the commons just not as deep as Jund. 3/x
Bit of a different kind of "underrated card" thread today. I usually don't do rares, and one could reasonably argue that this card is actually mostly *overrated*.
But today, I want to focus on why and how 17lands stats dramatically underrate the card Invasion of Kaldheim.
1/x
As a rare that gets picked a lot higher than I take it (3.14 ALSA in Bo3!), I don't have that much experience actually playing with the card. But it reads pretty strong to me, and has seemed impressive when I've cast it.
So why does it have a whopping *48.8%* GIH WR in Bo1?
2/x
Having a GIH WR below 50% is really bad - by this metric, Invasion of Kaldheim is the 19th worst card in the set, in the vicinity of unsupported buildarounds like Kaheera, Dina, Theros, and Arcavios. If you were drafting purely based on GIH WR, you would never pick it.
As promised, underrated card threads! First up: Urn of Godfire.
I expected this card to be completely unplayable, but recently I've been trying it a lot, and have honestly been impressed.
It's not great overall, but I hope to show where and how to use it in this thread. 1/15
Urn is currently the 10th least-picked card on 17lands in Bo1 (12th in Bo3), with ALSA 8.62 (8.35 in Bo3). Its pick rate seems to be staying roughly even in both Bo1 and Bo3.
So where is Urn good? Well, one of the more obvious use cases is as a bad hard removal spell.
1+6 mana is a lot to remove something, but with a lot of bombs in the set, it can sometimes be quite important to have actual hard removal in your deck.
Thinking of doing underrated card threads again for this set, probably going to try for 2-3 times a week for a bit, and see how it goes?
But first I figure I should talk about Seed of Hope, which was very underrated, but is likely moving towards overrated as people hype it. 1/7
At some point Seed of Hope was the least-picked green common by ALSA, while having something like a 60ish% GIH WR in Bo1.
But after a bunch of content creators have been talking it up, this is no longer the case - it's quickly trending up in ALSA, and down to 56% GIH WR. 2/7
So how good is Seed of Hope? Well, if it didn't have the clause about permanents, it would be like a Consider that gains 2 life (with small differences like being able to bin the second card), which is great! Consider is solid but unexciting in limited, and 2 life is huge. 3/7
Okay I should be asleep right now but instead I did a bit more digging, and it's possible I'm missing something, but it seems that 17lands data contains an exhaustive list of all possible sets of commons in Arena packs of DMU, and that this list is surprisingly small. 1/7
So basically I took the 17lands DMU draft dataset I've been using (which is a bit old, but still has 251,574 drafts), and looked at, for each common, how many different sets of commons it appeared with. And it turns out that the answer is always between 2998 and 3000. 2/7
With about 100 commons, and 10 commons per pack, we can expect each common to show up 25k times, so if the possible sets of commons each show up equally, we'd expect to see each one about 8-9 times. 3/7