A week ago Israel was about to have a new government supported by right-wing, left-wing, centrist and Arab parties which was to concentrate on a “civilian agenda” and “reconciliation.” 5 days of internecine violence shattered that illusion. It’s still Netanyahu’s Israel.
I’ve yet to see real evidence Netanyahu somehow engineered these dual crises in Gaza and between Jews and Arabs in Israel but it’s a direct result of his policies. He inherited in 2009 the previous government policy’s of blockading Gaza but in 12 years did nothing to change it.>
In regard to Jewish-Arab relations Netanyahu did everything to exacerbated generations-old hatreds between communities, not because he’s a racist, but because an us-against-them mindset held his electoral base together. For political reasons, he also degraded the Israeli police>
The subject of repeated police corruption investigations, Netanyahu has underfunded and politicized the police so it became more a paramilitary security force and much less a public service. The results were clear this week in Jerusalem and Lod and lead directly to this crisis.>
The heavy-handed over-policing in Jerusalem’s Sheikh Jarrah and Al Aqsa is in stark contrast to the way police neglected Arab neighborhoods and towns in recent years, allowing them to descend in to gang warfare as murder-rates have rocketed, few deaths are properly investigated.>
One Arab resident of Lod told me this week “how do you expect us to calm down when the police come here only when the victims are Jews. When an Arab murders an Arab, they come the next day, arrest a member of each family and then release them for lack of evidence. That’s all.”>
The Jewish residents of Lod have no higher regard for the police who weren’t there this week when their homes, property and synagogues were being attacked by mobs. Instead far-right Jewish activists came to Lod, exacerbating tension. The local Jews have mixed feelings about them>
“I hate everything they represent but [the racist football hooligans and extreme settlers] saved our homes when the police didn’t turn up” is the most depressing sentence I heard this week repeated by Jewish residents of Lod. What do you do when only militias are there for you? >
The Arab-Jewish conflict began before Netanyahu’s birth and Gaza was blockaded since the Hamas coup there 2 years before he came back to power, but he’s done everything in the last 12 years to entrench the siege mentality on both sides and inflame sectarian hatreds. Bibi’s Legacy
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Netanyahu’s unprecedented decision to fire Ronen Bar the head of the Shin Bet just happened to come on a day when news broke of yet another security investigation into an aide in the prime minister’s office. It won’t end at this
The attorney-general (whom the government is also trying to fire) wasn’t consulted about the firing of the head of Shin Bet. If she opposes the move due to Netanyahu’s conflict of interest with the security investigations of his aides the firing could be challenged in court >
If Bar and the AG both claim Netanyahu is trying to fire either of them because of the investigations against him the Supreme Court is likely to rule against the firings. This is the constitutional crisis which the Netanyahu government has been building up to for over 2 years now
Putting aside the fact no-one asked the Gazans, Trump’s “plan” to move them to Egypt or Jordan are non-starters as nothing will make either country accept them. But if Trump is really worried about Gaza’s reconstruction, how about expanding Gaza’s territory? That makes sense >
The Gaza Strip is an artificial & unnatural geographical unit created by Egypt in 1949 to concentrate refugees displaced by Israel. Even before being turned into rubble it desperately needed more space and there are 2 ways that can be provided. Both have been unfairly dismissed >
The 1st and most obvious way to expand the Gaza Strip is to the south-west along part of Egypt’s northern Sinai Mediterranean shore. An area Egypt has neglected for decades. The argument against this is that the Egyptians will never relinquish territory because of national pride>
A few thoughts on where Israel now stands re Syria:
In the last few months Israel was trying to use the drubbing it delivered Hizbullah in Lebanon to pressure Assad to leave the Iranian axis. It was trying to get Russia, US & Emiratis backing for this. Assad was non-committal >
Up to a few days ago this remained Israel’s objective and hope was that rebel advances would pressure Assad to do so. But the pace of the rebel advances, the rapid collapse of the Syrian army and apparent abandonment of Assad by Iran and Russia leave Israel without a strategy >
Israel’s immediate concerns in Syria are advanced and chemical weapons falling into Jihadist hands and Iran using the chaos to open a corridor for resupplying Hizbullah in Lebanon. These are already behind dealt with by air-strikes but those won’t solve the mid-term challenges >
עד ממש לא מזמן הייתי בין אלה שחשבו (וגם כתבתי) שאין דרך לגייס מספרים משמעותיים של גברים חרדים בעתיד הנראה לעין ושילוב משמעותי שלהם בנשיאה בנטל הביטחון יבוא רק בתהליך של דור שיתחיל משילוב בשוק העבודה ובשינויים במערכת החינוך החרדית. טעיתי. נוצרה כעת הזדמנות היסטורית לגיוס משמעותי >
4 סיבות להיווצרות הזדמנות היסטורית לגיוס משמעותי של חרדים. 2 בציבור הכללי. 2 בציבור החרדי. 1. נוצר קונצנזוס נדיר מאוד בציבור הלא-חרדי שחוצה מחנות, ימין ומרכז, חילונים ודתיים, שלא רק תומך בזה ברמה העקרונית, אלא שרואה בזה עכשיו עדיפות לאומית עליונה. לכן חוק השתמטות לא יכול לעבור >
2. הטיעון שהיה נכון לשעתו ש״לצה״ל אין מה לעשות עם אלפי חיילים חרדים״ חלף מהעולם מתחילת המלחמה. במציאות הביטחונית בעתיד הנראה לעין צה״ל צריך מאוד את הגברים החרדים ויידע להשתמש בהם. גם אין מחסור במפקדים דתיים בכל הדרגות שישמחו לקחת על עצמם את משימת ההכשרה וההובלה ברגישות הנדרשת >
While we’re waiting for official confirmation Sinwar is dead before writing the obituary, worth noting there’s still a dispute in Israel’s intelligence community over whether he launched October 7 attack in the knowledge of what would come next. Did he willingly sacrifice Gaza? >
There’s the view Sinwar didn’t believe the IDF would be prepared to go all the way into Gaza on the ground and ultimately after another “round” he would be able to negotiate a hostage agreement that would release 1000s of Palestinian prisoners and make him the undisputed leader >
In addition to misreading Israel’s response there’s also Sinwar’s mistake in expecting Hizbullah to go all-in with its own attack plans on northern Israel with Iran’s blessing. In this view Sinwar remains a pragmatic strategist who made 2 massive mistakes in launching October 7 >
So what happens now after Iran’s 2nd direct missile attack on Israel. One thing is certain. Unlike after April 14, this time Israel won’t “take the win” as Biden urged Netanyahu. This time Israel’s response will be devastating, including perhaps strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites >
A lot has changed since the previous Iranian strike on April 14. Iran’s 3 strongest proxies, Hizbullah, Hamas and Houthis have all been heavily hit, greatly eroding their effectiveness as Iran’s insurance policy against an Israeli strike and creating a strategic opportunity >
Over a decade ago when Netanyahu and Barak wanted to strike Iran’s nuclear sites (at least Barak did, Netanyahu may have been bluffing) the entire Israeli defense establishment opposed them. This time Netanyahu and the security chiefs are in agreement that this is the moment >