A week ago Israel was about to have a new government supported by right-wing, left-wing, centrist and Arab parties which was to concentrate on a “civilian agenda” and “reconciliation.” 5 days of internecine violence shattered that illusion. It’s still Netanyahu’s Israel.
I’ve yet to see real evidence Netanyahu somehow engineered these dual crises in Gaza and between Jews and Arabs in Israel but it’s a direct result of his policies. He inherited in 2009 the previous government policy’s of blockading Gaza but in 12 years did nothing to change it.>
In regard to Jewish-Arab relations Netanyahu did everything to exacerbated generations-old hatreds between communities, not because he’s a racist, but because an us-against-them mindset held his electoral base together. For political reasons, he also degraded the Israeli police>
The subject of repeated police corruption investigations, Netanyahu has underfunded and politicized the police so it became more a paramilitary security force and much less a public service. The results were clear this week in Jerusalem and Lod and lead directly to this crisis.>
The heavy-handed over-policing in Jerusalem’s Sheikh Jarrah and Al Aqsa is in stark contrast to the way police neglected Arab neighborhoods and towns in recent years, allowing them to descend in to gang warfare as murder-rates have rocketed, few deaths are properly investigated.>
One Arab resident of Lod told me this week “how do you expect us to calm down when the police come here only when the victims are Jews. When an Arab murders an Arab, they come the next day, arrest a member of each family and then release them for lack of evidence. That’s all.”>
The Jewish residents of Lod have no higher regard for the police who weren’t there this week when their homes, property and synagogues were being attacked by mobs. Instead far-right Jewish activists came to Lod, exacerbating tension. The local Jews have mixed feelings about them>
“I hate everything they represent but [the racist football hooligans and extreme settlers] saved our homes when the police didn’t turn up” is the most depressing sentence I heard this week repeated by Jewish residents of Lod. What do you do when only militias are there for you? >
The Arab-Jewish conflict began before Netanyahu’s birth and Gaza was blockaded since the Hamas coup there 2 years before he came back to power, but he’s done everything in the last 12 years to entrench the siege mentality on both sides and inflame sectarian hatreds. Bibi’s Legacy
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עד ממש לא מזמן הייתי בין אלה שחשבו (וגם כתבתי) שאין דרך לגייס מספרים משמעותיים של גברים חרדים בעתיד הנראה לעין ושילוב משמעותי שלהם בנשיאה בנטל הביטחון יבוא רק בתהליך של דור שיתחיל משילוב בשוק העבודה ובשינויים במערכת החינוך החרדית. טעיתי. נוצרה כעת הזדמנות היסטורית לגיוס משמעותי >
4 סיבות להיווצרות הזדמנות היסטורית לגיוס משמעותי של חרדים. 2 בציבור הכללי. 2 בציבור החרדי. 1. נוצר קונצנזוס נדיר מאוד בציבור הלא-חרדי שחוצה מחנות, ימין ומרכז, חילונים ודתיים, שלא רק תומך בזה ברמה העקרונית, אלא שרואה בזה עכשיו עדיפות לאומית עליונה. לכן חוק השתמטות לא יכול לעבור >
2. הטיעון שהיה נכון לשעתו ש״לצה״ל אין מה לעשות עם אלפי חיילים חרדים״ חלף מהעולם מתחילת המלחמה. במציאות הביטחונית בעתיד הנראה לעין צה״ל צריך מאוד את הגברים החרדים ויידע להשתמש בהם. גם אין מחסור במפקדים דתיים בכל הדרגות שישמחו לקחת על עצמם את משימת ההכשרה וההובלה ברגישות הנדרשת >
While we’re waiting for official confirmation Sinwar is dead before writing the obituary, worth noting there’s still a dispute in Israel’s intelligence community over whether he launched October 7 attack in the knowledge of what would come next. Did he willingly sacrifice Gaza? >
There’s the view Sinwar didn’t believe the IDF would be prepared to go all the way into Gaza on the ground and ultimately after another “round” he would be able to negotiate a hostage agreement that would release 1000s of Palestinian prisoners and make him the undisputed leader >
In addition to misreading Israel’s response there’s also Sinwar’s mistake in expecting Hizbullah to go all-in with its own attack plans on northern Israel with Iran’s blessing. In this view Sinwar remains a pragmatic strategist who made 2 massive mistakes in launching October 7 >
So what happens now after Iran’s 2nd direct missile attack on Israel. One thing is certain. Unlike after April 14, this time Israel won’t “take the win” as Biden urged Netanyahu. This time Israel’s response will be devastating, including perhaps strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites >
A lot has changed since the previous Iranian strike on April 14. Iran’s 3 strongest proxies, Hizbullah, Hamas and Houthis have all been heavily hit, greatly eroding their effectiveness as Iran’s insurance policy against an Israeli strike and creating a strategic opportunity >
Over a decade ago when Netanyahu and Barak wanted to strike Iran’s nuclear sites (at least Barak did, Netanyahu may have been bluffing) the entire Israeli defense establishment opposed them. This time Netanyahu and the security chiefs are in agreement that this is the moment >
Nasrallah’s assassination is such a mega event that it distracts a bit from what has taken place over the past 2 months - the complete decapitation of Hizbullah’s military leadership, beginning with the Fuad Shukr assassination on July 30. The plan was 18 years in the making >
Since 2nd Lebanon War in which Israel tried and failed to kill Nasrallah and pretty much any other senior Hizbullah commander Israel’s intelligence services devoted major resources (at expense of Hamas target) penetrating Hizbullah’s networks and sabotaging its military build-up>
The main operations in this ongoing campaign were the Imad Mughniye assassination in 2008, the “Northern Shield” operation to destroy cross-border tunnels in 2018-9 and the ongoing “war-between-wars” air-strikes over the past 13 years against weapon convoys going through Syria >
The efficacy of assassinating senior commanders has been debated for many years in Israel’s security establishment. The best argument against assassinations was that of Hizbullah chief Musawi in 1992. He was replaced by a young Nasrallah who proved much more dangerous. However >
If Nasrallah is dead, and it’s still a big if, it will have a massive impact. In 32 years he has built up the organisation in his image, as well as establishing his status as the most central non-Iranian figure in proxies network, advising Supreme Leader Khamenei on strategy >
Nasrallah was along with Soleimani an architect of the proxies network. If he’s dead, it doesn’t mean of course the end of Hizbullah, but without Nasrallah and the group of senior commanders who have been assassinated in recent weeks, the movement will need a long rebuilding
Netanyahu and his proxies trying to frame his desire to replace Defense Minister Gallant as a criticism of Gallant’s hesitation to launch an offensive up north. This is bogus as Netanyahu has always been the most hesitant. The real reasons as always with Netanyahu are political >
The real reasons Netanyahu wants to fire Gallant 1. Gallant opposed him on giving WB powers to Smotrich and on the judicial overhaul and since the war has refused to back him against the generals 2. Gallant favors a hostage/ceasefire deal which jeopardizes the coalition >
3. Gallant opposes the law exempting yeshiva students from service. Without such a law the Haredi parties will bring down the government 4. Gallant has an independent channel to the Biden administration and is the only minister they seem to trust >