Having spent time researching and writing about Jewish communal security over the years and the sad conclusion is there isn’t an easy solution. The armed police cordons you see in some European cities around synagogues and Jewish schools are awful and in some cases unsustainable> Take for example the area where today’s attack took place. There are literally dozens of synagogues, of many sizes, in that part of Manchester/Salford and there aren’t enough firearms officers in all of northern England to protect them all. Similar situation in parts of London >

Reports of Hamas or Israel agreeing to the “Trump Plan” ceasefire are premature. Both sides received the plan. Neither have formally accepted. For the next 48 hours there will be furious negotiations over terms with the aim of announcing the deal at the Trump-Netanyahu meeting > There are elements of the Trump Ceasefire Plan neither side are willing to commit to. It will depend on the pressure Trump and the Arab mediators can exert over the next 48 hours. These are the main sticking points: >

Excellent tracker on @haaretzcom (in Hebrew for now) of Iran’s missile launches & their hits on Israel. 2 important conclusions: of 460 missiles launched in 8 days only 24 hit their targets. We don’t have yet a breakdown of missiles intercepted/misfired > haaretz.co.il/news/security/… So out of all the missiles Iran fired, only 6% hit. Without knowing how many misfired we can’t say that’s a 94% interception rate (IDF keep saying “around 90%”) but for now the missile defenses seem to be holding up well. Let’s look now at the Iranian rate of fire >

היום מתמנים דיינים בישראל. נושא שמעורר פיהוק בקרב רוב הישראלים. בציבור החרדי מינוי לדיין זה כמו כרטיס זהב למפעל של ווילי וונקה. משכורת של שופט ואחרי זה פנסיה, לשכה, זמני עבודה נוחים ומעמד חברתי. זה הטופ שאליו לומד תורה יכול לשאוף. אבל למה בכלל אנחנו (משלמי המסים) מממנים דיינים? > כמעט כל עבודת הדיינים בשרות המדינה מתמקדת בגירושים. בדיני ממונות דנים בעיקר בתי דין פרטיים ובתי הדין לגיורים הם מערכת נפרדת. גירושים (למי שנישא בחתונה דתית) הם לפי החוק בישראל נושא שנתון לבית דין רבנים אבל מבחינה הלכתית, זה נושא טכנית של עריכה ומסירת הגט. לדיין אין באמת משמעות >

Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar just filed his deposition to the Supreme Court against Netanyahu’s attempt to fire him. The non-classified section is 8 pages. Here are the main points: The deposition is “to ensure the service’s professional independence” and to allow future chiefs to > “refuse to carry out prohibited instructions”. Bar claims the real reason for his dismissal “isn’t professional but an expectation of personal loyalty to the prime minister”. Accuses Netanyahu of orchestrating a briefing campaign against him and the Shin Bet for these reasons >

אני כותב על זה שנים. תנודות דמוגרפיות בד״כ מתגלות באיחור. בגלל זה, ובשל האופי המסוגר של החברה החרדית, יש להניח שתופעת העזיבה של החברה החרדית אפילו נרחבת יותר. היא מקבילה לתופעה דומה בקרב החרדים בארה״ב שם יספר לכם כל מאכער רציני ש״אין בית שאין בו מת״. אז למה חרדים צעירים עוזבים? >

https://twitter.com/yoeli_brim/status/1907314617417703743

הסיבה המרכזית היא לא ״משבר אמונה״ (למרות שזה קיים). החברה החרדית לא מבוססת על אמונה. צעירים עוזבים כי המבנה של החברה החרדית שקמה לאחר השואה היה תלוי ביכולת להסתגר בפני העולם (בישראל וארה״ב) ולבנות אתוס של מיעוט על סף הכחדה שמשקם ובונה את עצמו בציפורניים לאחר חורבן השואה באירופה >

Now that a judge has extended by 48 hours the arrest of Yonatan Urich (Netanyahu’s spin-doctor for the past decade) and Eli Feldstein (Netanyahu’s spokesperson for military affairs) the full contours of the #Qatargate investigation can be reported. Bear with me, this is long > On October 7 Netanyahu began fighting his personal war for political survival, blaming the security chiefs for all that had happened. Urich hired Feldstein, as military affairs spokesperson, a role that never existed before in the PM’s office, as part of the Save Bibi campaign >

Netanyahu’s unprecedented decision to fire Ronen Bar the head of the Shin Bet just happened to come on a day when news broke of yet another security investigation into an aide in the prime minister’s office. It won’t end at this The attorney-general (whom the government is also trying to fire) wasn’t consulted about the firing of the head of Shin Bet. If she opposes the move due to Netanyahu’s conflict of interest with the security investigations of his aides the firing could be challenged in court >

Putting aside the fact no-one asked the Gazans, Trump’s “plan” to move them to Egypt or Jordan are non-starters as nothing will make either country accept them. But if Trump is really worried about Gaza’s reconstruction, how about expanding Gaza’s territory? That makes sense > The Gaza Strip is an artificial & unnatural geographical unit created by Egypt in 1949 to concentrate refugees displaced by Israel. Even before being turned into rubble it desperately needed more space and there are 2 ways that can be provided. Both have been unfairly dismissed >

A few thoughts on where Israel now stands re Syria:
In the last few months Israel was trying to use the drubbing it delivered Hizbullah in Lebanon to pressure Assad to leave the Iranian axis. It was trying to get Russia, US & Emiratis backing for this. Assad was non-committal > Up to a few days ago this remained Israel’s objective and hope was that rebel advances would pressure Assad to do so. But the pace of the rebel advances, the rapid collapse of the Syrian army and apparent abandonment of Assad by Iran and Russia leave Israel without a strategy >

https://twitter.com/anshelpfeffer/status/1865348910828359763

עד ממש לא מזמן הייתי בין אלה שחשבו (וגם כתבתי) שאין דרך לגייס מספרים משמעותיים של גברים חרדים בעתיד הנראה לעין ושילוב משמעותי שלהם בנשיאה בנטל הביטחון יבוא רק בתהליך של דור שיתחיל משילוב בשוק העבודה ובשינויים במערכת החינוך החרדית. טעיתי. נוצרה כעת הזדמנות היסטורית לגיוס משמעותי > 4 סיבות להיווצרות הזדמנות היסטורית לגיוס משמעותי של חרדים. 2 בציבור הכללי. 2 בציבור החרדי.
1. נוצר קונצנזוס נדיר מאוד בציבור הלא-חרדי שחוצה מחנות, ימין ומרכז, חילונים ודתיים, שלא רק תומך בזה ברמה העקרונית, אלא שרואה בזה עכשיו עדיפות לאומית עליונה. לכן חוק השתמטות לא יכול לעבור >

While we’re waiting for official confirmation Sinwar is dead before writing the obituary, worth noting there’s still a dispute in Israel’s intelligence community over whether he launched October 7 attack in the knowledge of what would come next. Did he willingly sacrifice Gaza? > There’s the view Sinwar didn’t believe the IDF would be prepared to go all the way into Gaza on the ground and ultimately after another “round” he would be able to negotiate a hostage agreement that would release 1000s of Palestinian prisoners and make him the undisputed leader >

So what happens now after Iran’s 2nd direct missile attack on Israel. One thing is certain. Unlike after April 14, this time Israel won’t “take the win” as Biden urged Netanyahu. This time Israel’s response will be devastating, including perhaps strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites > A lot has changed since the previous Iranian strike on April 14. Iran’s 3 strongest proxies, Hizbullah, Hamas and Houthis have all been heavily hit, greatly eroding their effectiveness as Iran’s insurance policy against an Israeli strike and creating a strategic opportunity >

Nasrallah’s assassination is such a mega event that it distracts a bit from what has taken place over the past 2 months - the complete decapitation of Hizbullah’s military leadership, beginning with the Fuad Shukr assassination on July 30. The plan was 18 years in the making > Since 2nd Lebanon War in which Israel tried and failed to kill Nasrallah and pretty much any other senior Hizbullah commander Israel’s intelligence services devoted major resources (at expense of Hamas target) penetrating Hizbullah’s networks and sabotaging its military build-up>

The efficacy of assassinating senior commanders has been debated for many years in Israel’s security establishment. The best argument against assassinations was that of Hizbullah chief Musawi in 1992. He was replaced by a young Nasrallah who proved much more dangerous. However > If Nasrallah is dead, and it’s still a big if, it will have a massive impact. In 32 years he has built up the organisation in his image, as well as establishing his status as the most central non-Iranian figure in proxies network, advising Supreme Leader Khamenei on strategy >

Netanyahu and his proxies trying to frame his desire to replace Defense Minister Gallant as a criticism of Gallant’s hesitation to launch an offensive up north. This is bogus as Netanyahu has always been the most hesitant. The real reasons as always with Netanyahu are political > The real reasons Netanyahu wants to fire Gallant
1. Gallant opposed him on giving WB powers to Smotrich and on the judicial overhaul and since the war has refused to back him against the generals
2. Gallant favors a hostage/ceasefire deal which jeopardizes the coalition >

For 3 days there has been a blizzard of conflicting leaks, briefings and statements from both Israel and Hamas. Now that Hamas are claiming to have agreed to the Egyptian proposal, we still don’t have clarity but we may be getting closer. Here are the remaining hurdles to a deal> 1. What has Hamas agreed to? Is it the original US-backed Egyptian (and Qatari) proposal which Israel agreed to tentatively? If not, how different is it? Netanyahu may try to claim it’s a different proposal but the Americans will be the one who will have to say if it is or isn’t>

Defense Minister Gallant’s announcement this evening he will only agree to pass a law on IDF draft with agreement of all the parties of the emergency coalition is the biggest political threat to Netanyahu since he returned to office. It creates an impossible situation for the PM> The government has only weeks to pass a law regulating the exemption of yeshiva students from the draft. If they don’t table a law, the Supreme Court will force the Defense Ministry to start drafting them. But there’s no way Benny Gantz can agree the blanket exemptions remain >

What’s happening in the last two days is Netanyahu consciously squandering what little international support Israel has (mainly from the US) to continue the war against Hamas in a vain attempt to save his own political career by picking a fight with Biden> haaretz.com/israel-news/20… This is the 3rd time Netanyahu has tried to leverage a dispute with a US president for domestic political gain. He tried it with both Clinton and Obama. (He didn’t dare do it with Trump). It worked with Obama and failed with Clinton > haaretz.com/israel-news/20…

I find it hard to get excited over the hypocrisy of the university presidents. Maybe because I’m not American, never spent a day in university and don’t have higher expectations from educated people. But above all, I don’t think this has anything to do with the Israel-Hamas war > There’s a crisis in western intelligentsia where ideas have become fashionable instead of profound, morals have become relative and too much value has been ascribed to words and it manifests itself in 1000s of issues in hypocrisy and a weakness in the face of right-wing populism>

A senior Israeli doctor, not military, just someone dedicated to healing people, called me and asked “why isn’t anyone reporting that a group of Israeli hospital directors offered to send in their own doctors to take all the premature babies from Shifa for treatment in Israel?” > There are 3 reasons why. First, whoever is calling the shots in Shifa, I’ve no idea who that is, turned them down. I’ll leave you to speculate why they prefer to keep the babies in Shifa and are now planning to send them to much more distant and badly equipped hospitals in Egypt>

https://twitter.com/anshelpfeffer/status/1726337385376440537