Today I'm finally talking about Symmetry Sage. ALSA 7.85. I put this one off twice since I'm still not quite sure where I stand on it; I think there is a home for it, but I think that home is rare enough that I wouldn't call it underrated? Still interesting to talk about. 1/x
The ceiling of this card is as a one mana 2/2 flier: basically Delver of Secrets, right? It has a bit more upside, since it can give Fractals +2/+0 and such, but it's hard enough already to trigger it once every turn. But that ceiling is very good: Wind Drake for 2 less. 2/x
But of course, the problem is that you can't actually reliably trigger it every turn, and a 0/2 flier is basically irrelevant, useful only for chump blocks. And even if you have a lot of spells, the timing can often be awkward with whether you want to attack or block with it. 3/x
If you have an instant like Bury in Books or Arcane Subtraction, it'll be easy to make it a 2/2 on blocks, but hard to attack with it without giving up value; if you have a sorcery like Serpentine Curve, you have the opposite problem of only being able to use it offensively. 4/x
This tension means that to maximize Sage, you want one of three things: either you have reactive spells and are defensive, or you have proactive spells and are offensive, or you have cheap instants like Curate or Opt so you can play both offensively and defensively with Sage. 5/x
The first scenario works best in a controlling Prismari deck. If you have enough cheap instant-speed cantrips and interaction, Sage can fit the 2-drop role that Prismari lacks outside Pledgemage and Apprentice: a cheap creature that trades off early but can be relevant late. 6/x
The second scenario is weirder, as both Prismari and Quandrix tend to be relatively controlling. There's some room in both to be proactive; Sage could go well with Frost Tricksters, Mage Duels, and/or Enthusiastic Studies. However, I've never been successful with such decks. 7/x
The actual deck I'm imagining for the second scenario is off-college: UW fliers. White has good aggressive and evasive tools, while blue provides tempo with Frost Trickster, Bury in Books, and to some extent Waterfall Aerialist. And Sage can definitely be part of that. 8/x
One especially strong synergy is to play Guiding Voice on Sage; now, you have a 1/3 flier that turns into a 3/3, which is a very real attacker and even a reasonable blocker, especially on turn 2. And you even get a lesson to trigger it again in the future. 9/x
It might be tempting to compare Sage to Clever Lumimancer. And both want similar things: cheap spells to consistently trigger magecraft. But they play quite differently: Lumimancer wants to get in big bursts of damage, while Sage wants to consistently peck in. 10/x
In general, I think Lumimancer is a better 1-drop for aggressive white decks, as the big bursts of damage early really helps fliers finish the job later, while Sage ends up serving the same role as other fliers with less consistency. But Lumimancer is another thread. 11/x
The last scenario mostly blends into the first two. If I'm putting Sage in my deck, I'd want cantrips to give more flexibility with attacking or blocking, but I'd still want to have a plan to mostly fall on one side of that. I don't want Sage to be an 0/2 at the wrong time. 12/x
So where does this leave Symmetry Sage? I'm still unsure. My dream scenario for it is that I draft some good white and blue cards, and wheel Sages to build an aggressive UW fliers deck. But I've only drafted UW a few times, and only one of them (a trophy!) used Sages well. 13/x
Summary: Symmetry Sage is a card that I'm still not sure about. I think it can be good if you have a lot of reactive spells in a controlling UR deck, or a lot of proactive spells in an aggressive UW deck, but it's hard to make work, and UW is especially finnicky. 14/14
Here is the aforementioned UW trophy with two Sages; the white learn spells were good for being proactive:
Was talking on Discord a bit about why I think the UW tap deck failed design-wise this format, and figured I'd translate my points here.
So, here's a thread: 1/x
It's pretty clear by now that the UW tap archetype just isn't working in WOE.
UW is the worst color pair in WOE on 17lands - just barely above 50% winrate, which is atrocious, same as LTR scry elves.
I think the reasons for this are actually quite interesting. 2/x
1. The simplest reason is just that blue and white are the two worst colors in WOE.
Every set has color imbalances, this set happens to have those converge on UW being weak. The card quality just isn't there, the commons just not as deep as Jund. 3/x
Bit of a different kind of "underrated card" thread today. I usually don't do rares, and one could reasonably argue that this card is actually mostly *overrated*.
But today, I want to focus on why and how 17lands stats dramatically underrate the card Invasion of Kaldheim.
1/x
As a rare that gets picked a lot higher than I take it (3.14 ALSA in Bo3!), I don't have that much experience actually playing with the card. But it reads pretty strong to me, and has seemed impressive when I've cast it.
So why does it have a whopping *48.8%* GIH WR in Bo1?
2/x
Having a GIH WR below 50% is really bad - by this metric, Invasion of Kaldheim is the 19th worst card in the set, in the vicinity of unsupported buildarounds like Kaheera, Dina, Theros, and Arcavios. If you were drafting purely based on GIH WR, you would never pick it.
As promised, underrated card threads! First up: Urn of Godfire.
I expected this card to be completely unplayable, but recently I've been trying it a lot, and have honestly been impressed.
It's not great overall, but I hope to show where and how to use it in this thread. 1/15
Urn is currently the 10th least-picked card on 17lands in Bo1 (12th in Bo3), with ALSA 8.62 (8.35 in Bo3). Its pick rate seems to be staying roughly even in both Bo1 and Bo3.
So where is Urn good? Well, one of the more obvious use cases is as a bad hard removal spell.
1+6 mana is a lot to remove something, but with a lot of bombs in the set, it can sometimes be quite important to have actual hard removal in your deck.
Thinking of doing underrated card threads again for this set, probably going to try for 2-3 times a week for a bit, and see how it goes?
But first I figure I should talk about Seed of Hope, which was very underrated, but is likely moving towards overrated as people hype it. 1/7
At some point Seed of Hope was the least-picked green common by ALSA, while having something like a 60ish% GIH WR in Bo1.
But after a bunch of content creators have been talking it up, this is no longer the case - it's quickly trending up in ALSA, and down to 56% GIH WR. 2/7
So how good is Seed of Hope? Well, if it didn't have the clause about permanents, it would be like a Consider that gains 2 life (with small differences like being able to bin the second card), which is great! Consider is solid but unexciting in limited, and 2 life is huge. 3/7
Okay I should be asleep right now but instead I did a bit more digging, and it's possible I'm missing something, but it seems that 17lands data contains an exhaustive list of all possible sets of commons in Arena packs of DMU, and that this list is surprisingly small. 1/7
So basically I took the 17lands DMU draft dataset I've been using (which is a bit old, but still has 251,574 drafts), and looked at, for each common, how many different sets of commons it appeared with. And it turns out that the answer is always between 2998 and 3000. 2/7
With about 100 commons, and 10 commons per pack, we can expect each common to show up 25k times, so if the possible sets of commons each show up equally, we'd expect to see each one about 8-9 times. 3/7