Today, much of the focus is on US compounded stocks, cryptocurrencies and COVID-19.

Let's get some perspective (1/x)
Key headlines in 1999:
• Motorola earnings
• Gateway Spanish speaking product
• Mutual funds
• Intel earnings
Key headlines in 2000:
• Compaq introduces hand-held line
• Looking forward to Home Depot earnings
• Bank CEO regulation
• Venture Capital flows still strong, despite crash
Key headlines in 2001:
• NASDAQ ends three-day losing streak
• What's next for Microsoft?
• Commentator: Ignore gold stocks
• Jobless claims continue to rise
Key headlines in 2002:
• Defense stocks are a great offense
• Stocks seen as lagging over 20 years
• Legal challenges for Hershey
• OPEC hesitates amid oil price spike
Key headlines in 2003:
• Stock pick: Washington Mutual for a 30% return
• Traders slam IBM
• Dollar boosts Asian exporting stocks
• Nikkei turns positive on SoftBank
Key headlines in 2004:
• Diebold's a winner
• Safe stocks hiding under the radar
• Japanese stocks open lower
• Fleckenstein: Insurance mess may ignite greater problems
Key headlines in 2005:
• A fund that beats Buffett
• Investors fear stock slip as oil surges
• Is China exporting good deflation?
• Dell's slowing may signal market weakness
Key headlines in 2006:
• Iran keeps crude oil above $70
• More turbulence ahead for Boeing
• Goldman, Lehman had worst Q3 banking drops
• Clorox names Coca-Cola executive as CEO
Key headlines in 2007:
• How far will the credit crunch spread?
• ABN, RBS consortium say to continue takeover talks
• Bear chief moves to assuage investor fears
• Profit from the Blockbuster-Netflix war
Key headlines in 2008:
• Wall St. soars on banks' best day in 16 years
• Inflation soars; home builder sentiment crumbles
• Merrill to sell Bloomberg stake for $4.5bln
• Computer shipment growth said slowing
Key headlines in 2009:
• Why a meltdown could happen again
• The bold new face of GM
• Why it's time to invest in real estate
• 4 problems that could sink America
Key headlines in 2010:
• Will Apple offer free iPhone fix?
• Should you buy gold?
• A meltdown survival plan
• Dow streak still alive, barely
Key headlines in 2011:
• Russia sells oil via pipeline to China
• Hangover or afterparty for stocks?
• Why Japanese stocks look tempting
• UK business leader sees rough start for economy
Key headlines in 2012:
• Better jobs, but worse jobs
• Sealed Air looks tasty
• Icahn goes activist on Motorola
• Transocean's surprising turnaround
Key headlines in 2013:
• How Twitter's pop stacks up
• Tesla and the competition
• Groupon is no bargain
• Macy's ready for happy holidays
Key headlines in 2014:
• The next Chipotle?
• Sunny outlook for solar?
• Home Depot hacking report worries Wall Street
• Why you shouldn't put your money in index funds
Key headlines in 2015:
• US gasoline prices at lowest level since 2008 recession
• A worst-case scenario for stocks? It's ugly
• How low can oil go? Goldman says $20 a barrel is a possibility
• Surging US debt should have you prepping for fiscal crisis
Key headlines in 2016:
• Trump shifts from Wall St. villain to savior
• The oil market could get a lot messier
• Silver prices have slumped into a bear market
• What Fidel Castro’s death means for investors
Key headlines in 2017:
• Here's why oil might crash to $10 a barrel
• Are Analysts Secretly Calling Gilead a Screaming Buy?
• Amazon said to make sportswear push in industry
• Bitcoin prices hit all-time high
Key headlines in 2018:
• Cryptocurrency ether hits lowest point of the year
• China puts off licenses for US companies amid tariff battle
• China trade war could cause bear market
• US 'likely' has taken over as the world's top oil producer
Key headlines in 2019:
• 80% of the stock market is now on autopilot
• Tesla analyst cuts price target
• Trump says no reduction in tariffs
• Stocks rise to close out Dow’s biggest June gain since 1938
Key headlines in 2020:
• Big tech lobbying
• Virus epicenter stocks
• Elon says China rocks
• Coronavirus live updates
Today's headlines:
• $100 million market cap deli
• Dogecoin rallies on Elon Musk tweet
• Facebook data could be halted
• Greece emerging from coronavirus lockdowns
Conclusions?
• News = noise
• All news are backwards-looking
• New, emerging trends are not obvious from today's news headlines
• Your focus has to be driven by something other than news reports: e.g. insider buying trends, buybacks, capital cycles, valuations, etc.

• • •

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More from @MikeFritzell

Jan 26
.@Nate93658762 suggested I read the annual report of Haad Thip HTC TB. Here's what I learnt Image
Haad Thip is a Coca-Cola bottler in Southern Thailand across 14 provinces. The typical brands, incl Coke, Fanta, Sprite, Minute Maid. Founded in 1969, two manufacturing plants. Seems to be a steady grower. 80% market share in sugar-sweetened soft drinks in the south. Image
91% sparking beverages and the rest non-carbonated (presumably Minute Maid). Image
Read 16 tweets
Jan 4
When should you sell, if ever?

Let's dig into the literature
Michael Price: sell when earnings growth is coming to an end, for example 1) when the return on invested capital is declining 2) business recessions are coming 3) industry cycles Image
Philip Fisher: "If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is - almost never"

Exceptions: 1) you made a mistake in your original appraisal 2) the company ceases to qualify under the same appraisal method Image
Read 11 tweets
Aug 11, 2024
Loved the book Mao's America by @XVanFleet. It discusses the similarities between Marxism in the United States today and during the Cultural Revolution in China in the 1960s and 70s.

Here are the key takeaways from the book (1/x) Image
A core tenet of Marxism is about dividing people into groups: oppressors and victims. For example, capitalists exploiting workers, encouraging workers to engage in class struggle.

But in reality, Marxist ideas are used by power-hungry politicians to bring down their own enemies.
After the Communists took over, the party encouraged peasants to kill their landlords and take over their land. Yet just four years later, that same land was taken over by the government and turned into communes with poor incentive structures. Crops started failing.
Read 38 tweets
Apr 24, 2024
I wrote a post about how to spot deception, based on the book Spy the Lie by Phil Houston and two other co-authors.

Here are the key take-aways from the book: Image
When trying to get at the truth, you'll want to ask specific questions and then 1) listen and 2) look for reactions from the other person to that question.

These reactions will include verbal such as failure to answer the question and non-verbal such as touching your face. Image
Questions intended to figure out the truth should be short, simple, singular and straightforward. They have to be so clear that the person has no way out except telling the truth.

A prologue statement explaining why a question is needed can increase cooperation.
Read 14 tweets
Jan 12, 2024
Finally breaking even on my Substack after all personal expenses, after roughly 2.5 years. A huge weight lifted off my shoulders. And super grateful to be able to do what I love - turning over rocks in Asia.

I can't say that I've reached huge success, but a few lessons (1/8): Image
1. Write about a passion

If you manage money, you can easily take a few days off and read books or whatever.

If you're writing research, not so much. You'll feel pressure to produce. Which makes it super important that you have a passion for what you're writing.
2. Dominate your own niche

It's become crowded on Substack, and it was inevitable it was going to turn out that way. I'm no smarter than anybody, but luckily I managed to find a niche without too much competition.

You'll want to become *the guy* for your particular niche. Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 23, 2023
On Egerton Capital's John Armitage's investment style, sourced from James Morton's 1997 book "Investing With the Grand Masters" (1/x) Image
BACKGROUND

• Started at Morgan Greenfell, where he ran the European Growth Trust beating practically all of his peers
• Founded Egerton Capital in 1994 with William Bollinger, one of the early employees Nicolas Tangen now at Norges Bank
• Has managed money for George Soros
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

• Long/short strategy with varying net exposure
• Review portfolio each month as if starting from scratch
• Typically 40 stocks on the long side
• No position >8%, top 20 positions 65-85% of total value
• Top 10 positions uncorrelated
Read 10 tweets

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