Today, much of the focus is on US compounded stocks, cryptocurrencies and COVID-19.

Let's get some perspective (1/x)
Key headlines in 1999:
• Motorola earnings
• Gateway Spanish speaking product
• Mutual funds
• Intel earnings
Key headlines in 2000:
• Compaq introduces hand-held line
• Looking forward to Home Depot earnings
• Bank CEO regulation
• Venture Capital flows still strong, despite crash
Key headlines in 2001:
• NASDAQ ends three-day losing streak
• What's next for Microsoft?
• Commentator: Ignore gold stocks
• Jobless claims continue to rise
Key headlines in 2002:
• Defense stocks are a great offense
• Stocks seen as lagging over 20 years
• Legal challenges for Hershey
• OPEC hesitates amid oil price spike
Key headlines in 2003:
• Stock pick: Washington Mutual for a 30% return
• Traders slam IBM
• Dollar boosts Asian exporting stocks
• Nikkei turns positive on SoftBank
Key headlines in 2004:
• Diebold's a winner
• Safe stocks hiding under the radar
• Japanese stocks open lower
• Fleckenstein: Insurance mess may ignite greater problems
Key headlines in 2005:
• A fund that beats Buffett
• Investors fear stock slip as oil surges
• Is China exporting good deflation?
• Dell's slowing may signal market weakness
Key headlines in 2006:
• Iran keeps crude oil above $70
• More turbulence ahead for Boeing
• Goldman, Lehman had worst Q3 banking drops
• Clorox names Coca-Cola executive as CEO
Key headlines in 2007:
• How far will the credit crunch spread?
• ABN, RBS consortium say to continue takeover talks
• Bear chief moves to assuage investor fears
• Profit from the Blockbuster-Netflix war
Key headlines in 2008:
• Wall St. soars on banks' best day in 16 years
• Inflation soars; home builder sentiment crumbles
• Merrill to sell Bloomberg stake for $4.5bln
• Computer shipment growth said slowing
Key headlines in 2009:
• Why a meltdown could happen again
• The bold new face of GM
• Why it's time to invest in real estate
• 4 problems that could sink America
Key headlines in 2010:
• Will Apple offer free iPhone fix?
• Should you buy gold?
• A meltdown survival plan
• Dow streak still alive, barely
Key headlines in 2011:
• Russia sells oil via pipeline to China
• Hangover or afterparty for stocks?
• Why Japanese stocks look tempting
• UK business leader sees rough start for economy
Key headlines in 2012:
• Better jobs, but worse jobs
• Sealed Air looks tasty
• Icahn goes activist on Motorola
• Transocean's surprising turnaround
Key headlines in 2013:
• How Twitter's pop stacks up
• Tesla and the competition
• Groupon is no bargain
• Macy's ready for happy holidays
Key headlines in 2014:
• The next Chipotle?
• Sunny outlook for solar?
• Home Depot hacking report worries Wall Street
• Why you shouldn't put your money in index funds
Key headlines in 2015:
• US gasoline prices at lowest level since 2008 recession
• A worst-case scenario for stocks? It's ugly
• How low can oil go? Goldman says $20 a barrel is a possibility
• Surging US debt should have you prepping for fiscal crisis
Key headlines in 2016:
• Trump shifts from Wall St. villain to savior
• The oil market could get a lot messier
• Silver prices have slumped into a bear market
• What Fidel Castro’s death means for investors
Key headlines in 2017:
• Here's why oil might crash to $10 a barrel
• Are Analysts Secretly Calling Gilead a Screaming Buy?
• Amazon said to make sportswear push in industry
• Bitcoin prices hit all-time high
Key headlines in 2018:
• Cryptocurrency ether hits lowest point of the year
• China puts off licenses for US companies amid tariff battle
• China trade war could cause bear market
• US 'likely' has taken over as the world's top oil producer
Key headlines in 2019:
• 80% of the stock market is now on autopilot
• Tesla analyst cuts price target
• Trump says no reduction in tariffs
• Stocks rise to close out Dow’s biggest June gain since 1938
Key headlines in 2020:
• Big tech lobbying
• Virus epicenter stocks
• Elon says China rocks
• Coronavirus live updates
Today's headlines:
• $100 million market cap deli
• Dogecoin rallies on Elon Musk tweet
• Facebook data could be halted
• Greece emerging from coronavirus lockdowns
Conclusions?
• News = noise
• All news are backwards-looking
• New, emerging trends are not obvious from today's news headlines
• Your focus has to be driven by something other than news reports: e.g. insider buying trends, buybacks, capital cycles, valuations, etc.

• • •

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More from @MikeFritzell

Jan 17
1/ Indonesia is conducting one of the largest land grabs in modern history.

Since March 2025, the government has seized over 4 million hectares of oil palm plantations. That’s an area the size of Switzerland, or roughly 30% of Indonesia’s total palm oil acreage. Image
2/ The justification? The government claims these plantations are in protected "forest zones."

But it looks more like outright nationalization. Assets are being transferred to a new SOE, "Agrinas Palma Nusantara," led by retired generals tied to President Prabowo. Image
3/ This will have broad ramifications. Indonesia produces 58% of the world’s palm oil.

With 30% of the country’s supply now under state control, palm oil prices are likely headed higher. Supply chains for everything from snacks to cosmetics will be affected.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 13, 2025
Let's compare the valuations of the US with Southeast Asia (1/x)
Grocery retailing:
US: Walmart @ 38x P/E w growth of 5% pa
Southeast Asia: Puregold @ 10x w growth of 10% pa
Paint:
US: Walmart @ 28 P/E w growth of 2% pa
Southeast Asia: TOA Paint @ 10x P/E w growth of 6% pa
Read 13 tweets
Sep 24, 2025
How to bootstrap a Bloomberg terminal in 2025: Image
Charts / price:
• Trading View (free but delay lag)
• Koyfin (free but delay)
• IBKR (pay for real-time prices for each market)
• Godel terminal for NASDAQ ($80/month)
News:
• Twitter search (free)
• Google Alerts (free)
• IBKR (free)
• The Fly On the Wall ($45/month)
• Godel terminal ($80/month)
Read 16 tweets
Aug 25, 2025
The bear case for US stocks: Image
Everyone in the world is chasing US tech stocks, and MSCI World is now 73% US with the top 10 mostly US tech. Image
The US CAPE ratio is now 39x, the highest in the world and only eclipsed by the late 1990s Dotcom bubble. Image
Read 11 tweets
Jan 26, 2025
.@Nate93658762 suggested I read the annual report of Haad Thip HTC TB. Here's what I learnt Image
Haad Thip is a Coca-Cola bottler in Southern Thailand across 14 provinces. The typical brands, incl Coke, Fanta, Sprite, Minute Maid. Founded in 1969, two manufacturing plants. Seems to be a steady grower. 80% market share in sugar-sweetened soft drinks in the south. Image
91% sparking beverages and the rest non-carbonated (presumably Minute Maid). Image
Read 16 tweets
Jan 4, 2025
When should you sell, if ever?

Let's dig into the literature
Michael Price: sell when earnings growth is coming to an end, for example 1) when the return on invested capital is declining 2) business recessions are coming 3) industry cycles Image
Philip Fisher: "If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is - almost never"

Exceptions: 1) you made a mistake in your original appraisal 2) the company ceases to qualify under the same appraisal method Image
Read 11 tweets

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