There is a flaw in much of the "we can't lock down to save the unvaccinated" chatter at the moment.

If the new variant is as transmissible as we think, there are enough non-vaccinated people to threaten the NHS.

It would be locking down to save the NHS, not the unvaccinated.
Here is the SAGE modelling.

For a variant that is 40% or 50% more transmissible, which the Indian variant may be, look at the rise in hospital admissions if we proceed to Step 4 full unlocking (yellow and blue lines)

They're in the tens of thousands. Similar levels to before. Image
The answer is surge testing to suppress it, and obviously more vaccinations. But the more transmissible the variant, the higher the herd immunity threshold.

So it is not as simple as just saying "we shouldn't shut down society to save people who won't take the vaccine".
Nor is this an argument for "locking down forever". It is an argument for more vaccinations. We are still only at around 30% of the population fully vaccinated. We need to increase that number to stop the spread.

If it can't spread, it can't make unvaccinated people sick.
Here is a v good, and more positive outlook though. All of the above is based on the Indian variant being much more transmissible. It may not be.

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More from @mattuthompson

20 May
NEW: The Dyson report finds that BBC reporter Martin Bashir was "in serious breach" of the BBC's guidelines when he forged bank statements to convince Princess Diana to do an interview.

It calls the subsequent BBC investigation into Bashir's conduct "woefully ineffective".

@LBC
It says the investigation, led by future DG Tony Hall, failed on 3 counts:

1) It didn't interview Diana's brother, Earl Spencer
2) It didn't properly scrutinise Bashir's account
3) It could not reasonably have concluded, based on knowledge of his lies, that he was an honest man
The Dyson report concludes that: "Without justification, the BBC fell short of the high standards of integrity and
transparency which are its hallmark"

#PrincessDiana

@LBC
Read 5 tweets
29 Apr
So Edwin Poots, darling of the traditionalists, is favourite to be the next DUP leader.

For those who don’t know him, a short introduction to the man, in his own words

(THREAD)

On the age of the Earth: “My view on the earth is that it's a young earth. My view is 4000 BC.”
Poots on the Big Bang: “You’re telling me that cosmic balls of dust gathered and there was an explosion?

“We’ve had lots of explosions in Northern Ireland and I’ve never seen anything come out of that that was good”
Poots on gay civil partnerships:

“Basically its unnatural in the first instance, and it’s abominable in the second instance.”
Read 6 tweets
28 Apr
Oh God. I’ve just seen the tweet. I feel bad even continuing the pile on on the tweet. So I will just ruthlessly subtweet the tweet.

Those who tweet without knowledge of Northern Irish politics should probably consider the merits of not tweeting at all.
I mean. If we want to be really kind it’s not TOTALLY wrong. The modernising issue is a big one for the DUP. And actually if you replace Sinn Fein with Alliance I suppose it’s not a terrible take...?

Ok ok, it is. But it has potential.
If you want some proper informed analysis of “what all this means” for the DUP and Unionism, you could do much worse than this from @PronouncedAlva this morning.
Read 4 tweets
21 Mar
This is insane. They have actually lost their minds.
In November 2020, the EU diplomatic service released the following communiqué. Now look where we are.
Quite apart from anything else, just last week the EU’s own Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides said the problem was a failure to actually use the vaccines they had. Direct quote below.

Why ban exports when you’re not even using what you’ve got?
Read 4 tweets
19 Mar
Now correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t recall this leading the @FoxNews home page?

It’s almost as if somebody falling on the stairs isn’t newsworthy... any more than somebody walking down a ramp.
(For those who recall this equally nonsense “story”: old man walks carefully)

Read 4 tweets
14 Mar
“The police will not keep us safe”

The tone here is very much protest now rather than vigil. The crowd growing all the time.

This is no more COVID compliant than yesterday’s vigil, but police are keeping their distance.

Learning perhaps from their actions last night.

@LBC
Crowd must be several thousand strong. Now marching towards Parliament Square. The name of Sarah Everard on their lips. As well as some more colourful expressions of anger aimed at the police...

@LBC
Protestors just staged a lie down in Parliament Square, in memory of Sarah Everard “and all victims of state violence”

@LBC
Read 7 tweets

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