Glen Peters Profile picture
May 18, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
The new @IEA Net Zero by 2050 report is crystal clear on what is needed.

"All the technologies needed to achieve the necessary deep cuts in global emissions by 2030 already exist, & the policies that can drive their deployment are already proven."

iea.org/reports/net-ze…

1/
"Clean energy innovation must accelerate rapidly, with governments putting R&D, demonstration and deployment at the core of energy and climate policy."

In 2030 only existing technologies needed, by 2050 new technologies also come to market.

2/
Net Zero 2050 is a jobs bonanza.

JOBS. JOBS. JOBS.

"The transition to net zero brings substantial new opportunities for employment, with 14 million jobs created by 2030 in our pathway thanks to new activities and investment in clean energy"

More jobs than losses...

3/
"Governments need to provide credible step-by-step plans to reach their net zero goals, building confidence among investors, industry, citizens and other countries"

And here are some clear action points...

4/
To me, this section is a game changer, coming from the @IEA...

"Beyond projects already committed as of 2021, there are no new oil and gas fields approved for development in our pathway, and no new coal mines or mine extensions are required"

5/
This should send ripples through governments & boardrooms.

No new fossil fuel supply needed. Full stop.

The risk of litigation just went up...


6/
"This is not simply a matter of all governments seeking to bring their national emissions to net zero – it means tackling global challenges through co-ordinated actions."

Rich countries will get to zero first, & help developing countries get there soon after.

7/
"The number of countries that have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions has grown rapidly over the last year & now covers around 70% of global emissions.

This is a huge step forward.

However, most pledges are not yet underpinned by
near-term policies & measures"

8/
"The report provides a global view, but countries do not start in the same place or finish at the same time: advanced economies have to reach net zero before emerging markets and developing economies, and assist others in getting there"

9/
While many will argue that the IPCC has said much of this before, I see the @IEA NZE2050 as providing much clearer messages, specific action points for governments, & the courage to say no new fossil fuel supply.

Read: iea.org/reports/net-ze…

10/10

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More from @Peters_Glen

Sep 16
I am still pondering over 2023 & El Nino. Is 2023 an (unusual) outlier or not?

Looking at anomaly in 2023 relative to the trendline (loess 50 year window), without (left) & with (right) annualised ENSO lags, then 2023 is rather mundane.

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When looking at the temperature change relative to the previous year, without (left) & with (right) annualised ENSO lags, then 2023 is more unusual depending on the lag.

If 2023 is unusual, then it could be equally explained by 2022 being low (rather than 2023 being high).

2/
Image
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There are numerous ways to consider ENSO. I have used annualised indexes, & various lags can be included. It is also possible to take sub-annual indexes (eg, several months), & again, various lags.

What is statistically best? I presume there is a paper on this.

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 13
I started to take an interest in the 2023 temperature increase...

The first plot I did, to my surprise, seems to suggest that 2023 is not unusual at all (given El Nino).

Why?

1/ Image
It all depends on how you slice the data. The previous figure was the anomaly relative to a trend (loess with 50 year window).

If I plot the change from the previous year (delta T), then 2023 is more unusual. Though, still, is it 2023 that is unusual, or 2022, or 2016, or?

2/ Image
The loess trend changes shape with the data, making the 2023 anomaly smaller. It is also possible to use a linear trend, making the 2023 anomaly larger.

Comparing the anomaly to a linear trend will make 2023 more important (than if loess is used).

3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 6
Has the land sink collapsed in 2023?

I am not so convinced. The land sink has a lot of variability, mainly due to El Nino, and an El Nino overlapped 2023. So we expect a lower land sink in 2023.

(My estimate assumes the ocean sink was average).

1/ Image
Was 2023 an El Nino year? That is not so obvious...

How does one average the monthly sea surface data to an annual value El Nino index? How does one account for the lag between El Nino and the change in atmospheric CO2 growth?

There is no unique answer to this.

2/ Image
This figure shows the monthly El Nino index annualised with different time lags. 2023 is an El Nino or La Nina, depending on how you average!

@richardabetts & @chrisd_jones use a 9 month lag in their work (which means 2023 was a La Nina)!


3/ metoffice.gov.uk/research/clima…
Image
Read 10 tweets
Jun 12
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) is no laughing matter, atmospheric N2O has increased 25% due to human activities.

Today @gcarbonproject updates the Global Nitrous Oxide Budget, which helps us understand where the N2O comes from and where it goes.



1/ essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/25…
Image
According to IPCC AR6, N2O caused 0.1°C of the current warming of 1.1°C (not this figure is now higher).

This may sound small, but since N2O is long-lived (like CO2) & primarily comes from agriculture, that 0.1°C will only go up in the future.

2/ Image
There are many sources of N2O, over half of which are natural (soils).

Anthropogenic sources are dominated by agriculture (soils & manure management) & industry (chemicals).

The sink is due to photolysis & oxidation in the atmosphere.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 5
Greenhouse gas emissions are at record highs, again.

The only good news is that Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) regulating under the Montreal Protocol have declined substantially in the last decades.

But what does all this mean for climate?



1/ 🧵 essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/26…
Image
Record high emissions means record high radiative forcing.

We have you covered, we also include aerosols (SO2, etc) & have done so for decades. Also shipping!

Short-lived aerosols are important, but should not distract from the drivers of change: greenhouse gas emissions!

2/ Image
Most of the energy put into the system ends in the ocean (90%), so the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) has been increasing along with emissions and radiative forcing.

This also means the Earth Energy Imbalance is also increasing.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
May 9
"Implemented policies result in projected emissions that lead to warming of 3.2°C, with a range of 2.2°C to 3.5°C (medium confidence)"

According to the landmark, widely reported IPCC Synthesis Report published in 2023.


1/ ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
Image
If you are surprised by this figure, where the median is 2.5°C (not 3.2°C), then I am curious why you think scientists are so optimistic...

The survey reflects more or less what scientists have been saying for years?



2/ theguardian.com/environment/ar…
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This question is ambiguous: "How high above pre-industrial levels do you think average global temperature will rise between now and 2100?"
* ...pre-industrial... between "now and 2100"?
* Where we are currently heading or where we could head? This is largely a policy question?
3/
Read 10 tweets

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