Oh how the tides of politics turn. To tell the truth, I had kind of forgotten about the opposition KMT as they were so downtrodden. But given recent events, I decided it was time to have a chat with Ho Chih-Yung, their deputy director of international affairs. 🧵
TBH, the KMT has been brutally marginalized for being relatively pro-China. Especially amongst the young. As Ho himself joked, “I used to say of course there are KMT supporters aged 40 and below...me! But then I turned 41.”
BUT two blackouts in a week AND a COVID crisis?
I didn’t ask Ho about COVID. That didn’t happen on KMT’s watch. But I asked him how KMT’s policy on power differed from the DPP’s. “Taiwan is simply not ready to move away from Nuclear Energy,” was his short answer. In President Ma’s 1-2-3-4 formulation, Nuclear would be 20%
Renewable energy 10%, Gas 30%, Coal 40%.
Contrast this with Prez Tsai’s plan by 2025:
20% renewables, 30% coal, 50% gas.
”We believe to have that much natural gas is a national security issue and renewables are not stable,” said Ho.
However, for a party that is supposedly pro-nuclear, Ho was surprisingly coy on the mothballed 4th Nuclear Plant, whose fate lies in the balance in an August referendum. “We’re neutral on the 4th Nuclear plant, the people must decide,” said Ho, “the government must then listen.”
Here was where I asked the question I’ve always wondered about the KMT. How did the KMT, so set on RETAKING CHINA by force, became the pro-China party? The answer...they never gave up on the goal of retaking China...the means have just changed.
“We believe the only way for Taiwan to be safe in the long term is for China to become free and democratic,” said Ho, ”and the best way for us to influence them is by modeling a vibrant Chinese-cultured democracies.” Ho added that the Chinese watch a lot of Taiwanese soap operas.
I was reeling a little bit at this point. Did somebody just suggest in the year of our lord 2021 that China can be democratized with Soap Operas? But Ho noted that Chinese/Taiwanese relations wasn’t always this tense. For instance, lots more mutual travel etc during Ma’s tenure.
More trade, more tourism, more interchange with China would both promote peace and educate the Chinese people on democracy, said Ho. “We are anti-CCP, anti-communist, but we are not anti-Chinese.” In fact, Ho is passionately attached to the founding myth of the KMT.
“驅逐韃虜,恢復中華,創立民國,平均地權“ are the words of Dr. Sun Yat-Sen that the KMT still live by. My best translation: “To drive away the foreign influences, to restore the glory of China, to establish the Republic and to evenly distribute land.”
“To evenly distribute land” That one was interesting because KMT is generally thought of as a center-right party. But Chiang Kai-shek did in fact carry out land reform. Basically taking away land from those who had it and distributing it to the tenant farmers.
What does “to evenly distribute land“ look like in 2021? Heavy taxes on property and Capital Gains taxes, said Ho. Hurray for that. And yay for the Republic I guess. But all that “drive away of foreign influence” and “restore the glory of China” stuff sounds a little...ewww?
I asked him about the charges of CCP infiltration of the KMT. To Ho’s credit he frankly admitted some people in his party “did stuff that doesn’t look good at all” re: biz in China. They are “cleaning house” and “people will lose their party membership.”
I also asked him if the party has done enough to reckon with its legacy as a dictatorship. “President Ma went and laid wreathes at the 228 memorial every year,” was his answer, “he apologized on the behalf of the party.” But no. they are not going to repudiate CKS wholesale.
”You have to understand it was a time of war,” said Ho, “anyone suspected of being a communist was dragged out and shot. And that’s the way it would be again if we had war again.“ Note: Martial Law was not lifted in Taiwan until 1987.
I feel like I kind of understand the KMT more after my interview with Ho. They are not a Taiwanese party, they have been and always will be a Chinese party, temporarily embarrassed on the Island of Taiwan. Chinese unity is still in their charter “but it’s conditional...”
“What if China became a democracy? And Taiwan is already a democracy? Who are we to tell the people of the future how to decide?”
Yeah, you see, here. Right here is why most young people who grow up feeling Taiwanese feel like they can NEVER support the KMT. THEY DO NOT WANT!
Does that mean the KMT will never come into power again? I don’t know. There are a lot of healthy elders in Taiwan, and a silent swing population who WILL punish the ruling party, any ruling party, for disruption in daily life, such as rolling blackouts.
My friend said to me “if Tsai’s energy transition policy fails, you can take a watermelon, carve KMT on it and that watermelon would be elected.” We were thinking that would be a few years out. But it seems a long hot summer has just began for the DPP 🧵
@ChihYungHo1 please check to see I got everything OK.
Addendum: Ma actually apologized on the behalf of the ROC government, not just the KMT. (Of course, during the Martial Law era, it was the KMT govt.)
Ho disagrees with this tweet, saying “KMT is indeed a Taiwanese party now. We were all born in Taiwan. But the difference between the KMT and the DPP is that we have commitment to the future of the Chinese Nation.“ Take that as you will.
Mr. Ho would like to add that in addition to Soap Operas, political talk shows and TV news broadcasting will also be helpful.
Instead of “to restore the glory of China,” Ho prefers the formulation “to restore the glory of the Chinese Nation.”
Ho would like to emphasize “The seeking of reunification is CONDITIONAL on a democratic and free China.”
Follow @ChihYungHo1 , who also is the spokesperson of the KMT.
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Another reason why the govt’s ”perfect storm” or “blame it on bob” excuses for recent blackouts is almost insultingly thin is...people predicted this. In fact, the 2014 Minister of Economic Affairs Woody Duh said “In 2021, Taiwan will face power crisis.”🧵 news.ltn.com.tw/amp/news/polit…
This was when Longmen, Taiwan‘s 4th nuclear plant, was about to be mothballed. Newly appointed Minister Duh predicted if N4 is mothballed/coal plants go offline, Taiwan will only have reserve capacity of 5.4 percent by 2021 and “will absolutely go short on power”
Now let’s remember, this man, who is now being raised up as a prophet, was being absolutely trashed by by anti-nuclear environmentalists as a fearmonger and a liar. No. Former minister Duh is neither a liar or a prophet...he was just a man who could do maths.
Looks like the prez herself and the premier are going to go live to address the nation in ten minutes:
It was a very short address. 5 minutes. Starting with how unacceptable it is to have two blackouts in one week. “We need to review our national electricity distribution in the wake of climate change and a booming economy.” I dislike how she keeps using the word “distribution”...
...when it is obvious to me we are not producing power and shuffling it around better will not help Taiwan but whatever. Onwards to COVID stuff: She focused on the domestic vaccines. 2 domestic productions now in clinical trials. Purchased vaccines also “on the way”
Are we about to see the Cultural Revolution 2.0 in China? This is what YouTube commentator Wen Zhao argues. While Xi has consolidated his power to an almost absolute amount, he still has to pay lip service to the party tradition of “respecting elders” 🧵
People forget Chinese leaders such as Deng Xiaoping and Wen Jiabao were themselves victims of the Cultural Revolution and they were determined not to have another Mao emerge in the CCP. The way Deng did this was provisional, creating a party culture where “elders” remain a force.
Wen Jiabao’s family suffered terribly under the Cultural Revolution. As soon as he became Premier, he was already thinking of how he was going to step down. While a political moderate, the one time he acted with resolute boldness was to take down Bo Xilai.
Survey finds working mother's in Taiwan are just about at their breaking point. How bad? Asked if they could have a do-over 1/3 would opt not to have kids. This is how we got the lowest birthrate in the world! (Thread) taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archi…
Childcare is HARD WORK ppl, and while Taiwan can be proud of how accepting we are of women workers, even at the managerial level, the truth is it's because we need their labor. At home, patriarchy still rules.
The candle is burning at four ends: child care, elder care, salary pressure and work pressure. Btw more than 80 percent feel guilty they don't spend enough time with kids and more than half say they're paid less for same work as working moms.
Proof right here that one Otaku with a Facebook Group can change the world. meet Huang Shih-shiu, Taiwan's pro-nuclear Final Boss. Thanks to Huang, the odds are good Taiwan's mothballed 4th nuclear plant will be restarted (thread)
It all started with Fukushima. While everybody else was freaking out, Huang though “huh...huge nuclear disaster and nobody died. Is it really as dangerous as I thought?” In 2013 Huang started the FB group Nuclear Mythbusters. The group made a name for itself with “takedowns”
“We love taking down the anti-nuke groups with their own numbers” said Huang, who crunched a number from a document called “how the 4th nuclear plant is picking your pocket” to calculate the average cost from N4 would be a bargain at NT$1.4/kWh (about a nickel)