Thread by @MicheleDDunne

Interesting discussion. @KShikaki argues that war would not have happened had Palestinian elections gone forward. Hamas would have used ballots instead of rockets to improve its position.

https://twitter.com/CarnegieEndow/status/1395054140334559233

@KShikaki @Tzipi_Livni says 2 state solution needs to be revitalized because "we are on a slippery slope towards a one state solution" which "we cannot afford."

@MarwanMuasher : "I am a two-stater by training but now a one-stater by reality." One state already exists; will it be a democratic or apartheid state?

@MarwanMuasher @DanKurtzer : 2014 conflict was Isr/Hamas, 2021 is broader, which Biden admin recognizes. US domestic politics also a factor: mainstream Dems will be vulnerable in 2022 elections, being careful re Israel.

@MarwanMuasher @DanKurtzer @KShikaki : Hamas is succeeding in position itself as defender of Jerusalem, showing there is a price for Israeli actions in holy places & Sh Jarrah. Lg majority of Palestinians support rockets

@MarwanMuasher @DanKurtzer @KShikaki @KShikaki : had Pal elections taken place w/out war, Fatah + Fatah defectors would have won 50%, Hamas about 33%. After war, Hamas popularity has risen.

@MarwanMuasher @DanKurtzer @KShikaki @KShikaki : Abbas cancelled elections not because Hamas would have won but because he would have lost & did not want to deal w/Fatah defectors

@MarwanMuasher @DanKurtzer @KShikaki @Tzipi_Livni : problem is not Isr vs Pal but moderates vs hardliners on each side

@MarwanMuasher @DanKurtzer @KShikaki @Tzipi_Livni @Tzipi_Livni : peace process needs a new "GPS" to guide it, allow parties to find routes around obstacles that arise

@MarwanMuasher @DanKurtzer @KShikaki @Tzipi_Livni @DanKurtzer : problem is that alternatives to two state solution do not work

@MarwanMuasher @DanKurtzer @KShikaki @Tzipi_Livni @aarondmiller2 : Problem is that proximity breeds contempt; don't know how 2 ethno/nationalist movements in this region can live together

@MarwanMuasher @DanKurtzer @KShikaki @Tzipi_Livni @aarondmiller2 @KShikaki : Pal youth believe what Marwan is saying. If you do not believe 2 state solution is possible, 1 state outcome (vs solution) seems inevitable

@MarwanMuasher @DanKurtzer @KShikaki @Tzipi_Livni @aarondmiller2 @MarwanMuasher : Fruitless to argue over 2 vs 1 state solution. Let's focus on rights for all Palestinians & Israelis.