Jacob Gunter Profile picture
May 20, 2021 11 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Keeping with the spirit that South China = Best China, here are some photos of my 5/1 trip to Fujian with the best travel buddy @Peter_M_Drucker
Gulangyu Island in Xiamen. One of the treaty ports, this island served as a consular point for foreign powers and a trade leaping-off point for the riches of Fujian. First football pitch in China, fisherman's alley, and some neat colonial-era buildings
I went over the day before 5/1 and had a fun time counting the number of wedding photo shoots.

There may not be any COVID in China, but that doesn't mean there isn't a plague here???
Hulishan fortress, which overlooks part of the bay. The massive Krupp coastal gun is spectacular, and took out several Imperial Japanese military vessels during the early days of the Second Sino-Japanese War/WWII.
On to Quanzhou, one of histories great cosmopolitan centers and trade emporia... until the Ming stopped the whole trade thing @Imperial_Yongle . First, the maritime museum, which is basically a history of Muslim traders that played a key role in the city during the Song/Yuan.
Kaiyuan Temple, where I became obsessed with the local brick art.
A Song Junk hull that was found intact in the bay in the 1970's. Hell of an exhibit.

Forget palaces and great temples/churches, folks. This is the history that gives insights to how normal people really lived their lives and what sort of items they had available to them.
The old Qingjing Mosque in Quanzhou, built in 100, it is the oldest arab-style mosque in China and was a central part of the muslim community that made the city their home and tied it with western Asia
Classical tea house behind the mosque that was a sheer delight for some 铁观音 and 瓜子
Lastly, some Tulou in 云水谣 that we pretty much had to ourselves, as we went on 5/5-6.

Lovely little breakfast with porridge and local pickles and steamed grains.
Lastly, I don't think these Tulous had a great relationship...

Fair enough, the one it's pointing at was blaring the worst kind of Mando-pop to draw people in.

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More from @Jacob_T_Gunter

Jun 12
Big news today! My quick take:

Does this investigation capture the full scale of unfair support that EVs enjoy through chinas economic model and industrial policy? No, but it wasn’t meant to.

Will this block Chinese EV exports to the EU? For some yes, for others no. 🪡 🧵 1/10
It all depends on the profit margins the individual brand/model earns in the EU.

Chinese EV makers are in a cutthroat price war at home, so they are looking overseas for profitable markets. Since the US is blocked off by the trade and tech war and… 2/10 Image
…Japanese consumers are super brand loyal, that really only leaves the EU as a large scale and rich market.

So the high margins that Chinese EV makers seek in Europe are at risk with these new measures. 3/10
Read 11 tweets
May 3, 2023
With the new crackdown on info and people to people flows across China’s borders, I’ve been thinking a lot about how hard or impossible it would be to repeat my ten years (between 2010-2021) in China if I had instead started in 2023.

A thread on the madness of the new era 1/10 Image
2010, I did a semester abroad at Fudan in Shanghai doing language immersion. I was one of the ~15k Americans studying in China. One reason I went was it was so easy to join a program and I joined one with some friends. 20-year old me may have gone elsewhere if not for that. 2/10
2012-2015 I was an English teacher at a private training school in a smaller Chinese city. My old friends tell me that school closed down when Xi destroyed the private tutoring industry overnight in 2021, so I couldn’t have that experience if I was born a decade later. 3/10 Image
Read 10 tweets
Jul 12, 2022
Some interesting data on the number of foreign residents in China coming out of the last census (done in November 2020) a brief thread 🧵

mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5OT…
First, it’s worth noting that the number of foreign residents in China is pitifully low for a country of its size and prominence - less than one tenth of one percent of the total population, and that number will likely shrink the long zero Covid stays in place
Second, the numbers in China for business or study are down massively. That could be the pandemic, but on the business side, that could also be the result of extensive personnel localization, decreasing the need for business trips…
Read 11 tweets
May 21, 2021
The bigger issue that drove this decision seems to be the escalatory nature of China’s sanctions, not their existence on its own.

The EU hit 4 officials and 1 entity, China hit 10 individuals and 4 entities, including a number of MEPs of multiple parties. My thoughts on why: 1
1. China assumes a superior position in the EU-China relationship. China has gone to great lengths to go tit for tat with the US, but casually escalates things with small and middle powers like Canada it Australia. 2
It may be that China views Europe as the inferior power, and that this slap could ha e worked. That these EU sanctions were done along with the US and others, it was important to punish the “weaker” parts of this united front. 3
Read 8 tweets
Apr 12, 2021
An observation on certain BRI projects:

A lot of the early-BRI-projects/pre-BRI-projects-reclassified-as-BRI-projects that went on to fail (Montenegro highway, Sri Lanka port, East Africa rail) have been labeled “Debt Traps”

That may be true, but I have another theory THREAD
These tend to share the trait of being far too ambitious or out of touch with the demographic and economic realities of their locales. The Montenegrin highway is far too big, the Sri Lankan port was built with a capacity far exceeding any reasonable level of demand, and... 2
... the rail network in east Africa was out of touch with both political (borders) and economic conditions.

I think these were more a failure of a copy-paste approach by Chinese diplomats and companies than they were debt trap attempts (which we should still be wary of) 3
Read 12 tweets
Jan 15, 2021
BIG WORK NEWS: The @europeanchamber and @merics launched our joint report on the impacts of decoupling on European companies today. Here’s a THREAD on the key findings, but I highly encourage everyone to give this unique report a proper read through the link below 1/
TLDR: forget the trade and financial wars, the tech war is where the horror lies. The US securitisation push and China’s self-reliance campaign are leading down a path of divergent tech ecosystems that are going to devastate economies of scale. 2/
Most analysis of decoupling is limited: the trade war, semicons, financial war, etc.

We did a deep dive into 9 layers of decoupling: political and financial; supply chains and critical inputs; standards and R&D; and data, network equipment and telecommunications services. 3/
Read 39 tweets

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