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Jacob Gunter Profile picture
Jacob Gunter
@Jacob_T_Gunter
Lead Analyst @merics_eu - pol. economy of China, decoupling and derisking, EU-China competition in 3rd markets. 10 years in China, ~3 in Berlin. Views my own.
Jun 12 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Big news today! My quick take:

Does this investigation capture the full scale of unfair support that EVs enjoy through chinas economic model and industrial policy? No, but it wasn’t meant to.

Will this block Chinese EV exports to the EU? For some yes, for others no. 🪡 🧵 1/10 It all depends on the profit margins the individual brand/model earns in the EU.

Chinese EV makers are in a cutthroat price war at home, so they are looking overseas for profitable markets. Since the US is blocked off by the trade and tech war and… 2/10 Image
May 3, 2023 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
With the new crackdown on info and people to people flows across China’s borders, I’ve been thinking a lot about how hard or impossible it would be to repeat my ten years (between 2010-2021) in China if I had instead started in 2023.

A thread on the madness of the new era 1/10 Image 2010, I did a semester abroad at Fudan in Shanghai doing language immersion. I was one of the ~15k Americans studying in China. One reason I went was it was so easy to join a program and I joined one with some friends. 20-year old me may have gone elsewhere if not for that. 2/10
Jul 12, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Some interesting data on the number of foreign residents in China coming out of the last census (done in November 2020) a brief thread 🧵

mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5OT… First, it’s worth noting that the number of foreign residents in China is pitifully low for a country of its size and prominence - less than one tenth of one percent of the total population, and that number will likely shrink the long zero Covid stays in place
May 21, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The bigger issue that drove this decision seems to be the escalatory nature of China’s sanctions, not their existence on its own.

The EU hit 4 officials and 1 entity, China hit 10 individuals and 4 entities, including a number of MEPs of multiple parties. My thoughts on why: 1 1. China assumes a superior position in the EU-China relationship. China has gone to great lengths to go tit for tat with the US, but casually escalates things with small and middle powers like Canada it Australia. 2
May 20, 2021 • 11 tweets • 9 min read
Keeping with the spirit that South China = Best China, here are some photos of my 5/1 trip to Fujian with the best travel buddy @Peter_M_Drucker Gulangyu Island in Xiamen. One of the treaty ports, this island served as a consular point for foreign powers and a trade leaping-off point for the riches of Fujian. First football pitch in China, fisherman's alley, and some neat colonial-era buildings
Apr 12, 2021 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
An observation on certain BRI projects:

A lot of the early-BRI-projects/pre-BRI-projects-reclassified-as-BRI-projects that went on to fail (Montenegro highway, Sri Lanka port, East Africa rail) have been labeled “Debt Traps”

That may be true, but I have another theory THREAD These tend to share the trait of being far too ambitious or out of touch with the demographic and economic realities of their locales. The Montenegrin highway is far too big, the Sri Lankan port was built with a capacity far exceeding any reasonable level of demand, and... 2
Jan 15, 2021 • 39 tweets • 10 min read
BIG WORK NEWS: The @europeanchamber and @merics launched our joint report on the impacts of decoupling on European companies today. Here’s a THREAD on the key findings, but I highly encourage everyone to give this unique report a proper read through the link below 1/ TLDR: forget the trade and financial wars, the tech war is where the horror lies. The US securitisation push and China’s self-reliance campaign are leading down a path of divergent tech ecosystems that are going to devastate economies of scale. 2/
Jul 24, 2020 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
While the imagery looks wholesome, the strategic importance of agriculture in the Northeast cannot be overstated, and it's a big deal to China's leaders - hence Xi taking a look. THREAD /1 First, it’s essential as part of a long-term effort to “rejuvenate the industrial bases of the Northeast”. The central government has dumped incredible support over the years trying to keep heavy industry alive and developing in the NE, but it hasn’t yielded results /2
Jul 6, 2020 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
A thread on how self-censorship in regards to China works... from someone who is about to start self-censoring on the topic /1 The last week has been peppered with issues that are have made me feel more vulnerable than any other point in time in my nearly nine years in this country that I have fallen in (and increasingly out of) love with. /2
Mar 17, 2020 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
LIVING IT UP AT THE HOTEL QUARANTINA: thread for those who want to know the conditions and deal at one of the hotels on offer in Beijing. Yesterday, I was given a quick glance at a few photos of the hotels that I could quarantine in. Foreigners only get two options: One was 500, the other 600 a night. I opted for the 600 after a quick search online, mainly for the superior bathroom and desk space.
Mar 16, 2020 • 44 tweets • 12 min read
THREAD ON RETURNING TO BJ: Super spotty vpn, but I’ll try update each piece as I have access. Note that this is post “all returnees from abroad must quarantine at govt facility” as announced at midnight while I was over the pacific. Things could change literally tomorrow. /n 11:20 we land and are told it will take a few minutes for medical procedures to be set up. A scant few planes are here with us, almost all Air China.