A teaser from the big analysis of Lessons i am working on currently. I will focus on the colleges but there is one interesting thing I found in off-college archetypes: Pest Summoning as a secret start of the Dimir decks. 1/9 
In the ~1200 Dimir deck games in the dataset I looked at, in
roughly 50% players had access to Pest Summoning in their SB. And that made all the difference. Decks without it had a paltry 48.7% win rate, decks with - 57.1%. 2/9
roughly 50% players had access to Pest Summoning in their SB. And that made all the difference. Decks without it had a paltry 48.7% win rate, decks with - 57.1%. 2/9
That is a lot - that is a bigger boost than Mascot exhibition gives to any archetype. To try and see why is it so, I looked at win rates when players chose to draw Pest Summoning and when they didn't draw it (but had access to it). 3/9
When drawn the win rate was 59.6%, when it wasn't - 55%. That shows that Pest Summoning is very beneficial to Dimir strategy, but it doesn't explain all the difference. This means there are additional factors in play. Possible explanations? 4/9
First is Pest Summoning is a good signal for black being open. This is not a high priority card, so you don't want to pick it early, but if you can get it p6-9 it is a solid card. However it is seen on average at p5 - so seeing it later is a good signal. 5/9
t means likely other key ingredients of the deck will be also passed later.
Other possibility is that UB drafters who understand the archetype are more likely to want Pest Summoning and therefore the samples of Dimir decks with PS are different from Dimir decks without. 6/9
Other possibility is that UB drafters who understand the archetype are more likely to want Pest Summoning and therefore the samples of Dimir decks with PS are different from Dimir decks without. 6/9
And players who understand the archetype better will win more with it.
This doesn't exhaust all the alternative explanations but shows how many extra layers are there in the win rate numbers data. 7/9
This doesn't exhaust all the alternative explanations but shows how many extra layers are there in the win rate numbers data. 7/9
The number is linked to card power but also openness of the colours, player skill level and archetype understanding, and possibly many more with variance sprinkled on top. 8/9
But even with all those caveats, Pest Summoning seems to be strong in Dimir, possibly as a way to let you survive till the end game when you can bury the opponents. Either in books of with card advantage. 9/9
Shoutouts to @17lands for as always providing me with data and for just being good people all-round.
Also a shoutout to @SamuelHBlack for an awesome Dimir episode of his podcast. I don't remember - did you speculate on Pest Summoning there?
Also a shoutout to @SamuelHBlack for an awesome Dimir episode of his podcast. I don't remember - did you speculate on Pest Summoning there?
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