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Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
@lugaricano
May 20, 2021 • 14 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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Hoy presenté a la prensa mi análisis del Plan de Recuperación español, el único que importa, en el que nos jugamos los 70.000 millones fondos europeos.

Mi valoración es que, actualmente, el plan NO cumple las reglas europeas y es una enorme oportunidad perdida. HILO 1/13
El Plan tiene 3 grandes carencias:
1) Faltan reformas a los problemas estructurales de España
2) El paquete de inversiones no es suficiente para transformar nuestra economía
3) No es un plan de país, es un manifiesto de partido sin consenso político. 2/13
Los problemas que hay que resolver son conocidos: y afectan
- Las Administraciones Públicas
- La competitividad empresarial
- La ciencia y la investigación
- La Educación
- El Empleo
- La sostenibilidad fiscal
EN NINGUNO DE ELLOS HAY REFORMAS DE CALADO 3/13
La reforma de las pensiones es una tomadura de pelo. Se vende como “reformas” lo que solo son trucos contables, contrarreformas o meras listas de deseos. NO son reformas, son parches. 4/13
En el apartado fiscal, más de los mismo, se ocultan los detalles relevantes. ¿Alguien se cree que encargar un informe o crear un comité de expertos va a pasar en Bruselas como una reforma fiscal seria? 5/13
La reforma del sistema educativo es la gran decepción del plan. Es el problema número UNO de España y las medidas incluidas son cortoplacistas, cosméticas y no cuentan con consensos políticos amplios. ¿De verdad es la ley Celáa es una reforma de recorrido? 6/13
En cuanto a la reforma laboral, hay buenas intenciones con respecto a los ERTEs o la simplificación de contratos.
Sin embargo, se repiten viejos errores en políticas activas (vuelta al modelo de subvenciones andaluz) y en negociación colectiva. 7/13
Las inversiones tampoco servirán para transformar la economía española. El Gobierno ha preferido gastar en cosas (rentables electoralmente) antes que en personas. España es el país de la UE con mayor abandono escolar y desempleo juvenil. ¿No deberían ser la prioridad? 8/13
El plan gasta 1.412 millones en equipamiento educativo digital, que si n va acompañado de una reforma educativo solo beneficiará a los que venden portátiles. Los programas educativos que sí podrían marcar la diferencia están infrafinanciados. 9/13
En España hay 580.000 menores de 25 años que están desempleados. El programa clave para que los jóvenes alternen formación con empleo llegará a... ¡3.000 personas en 3 años! El pacto intergeneracional está roto y el Gobierno no usará el plan de recuperación para arreglarlo 10/13
El Gobierno ha ignorado a la oposición, a las CCAA y ayuntamiento y ni siquiera ha llevado el plan al Congreso de lo Diputados

Pedro Sánchez hoy: “Dialoguemos para decidir qué país queremos ser en 30 años”. Ese diálogo debía haberse hecho entorno al plan de recuperación. 11/13
Después de haber estudiado el plan se cumplen los peores temores: el Gobierno va a desaprovechar la oportunidad de transformar España. 12/13
Aquí podéis ver la rueda de prensa donde hago un análisis detallado del plan 👇13/13

Algunos lectores del hilo me preguntan cómo gastaría/con qué prioridades el dinero. En junio de 2020 lo expliqué en el Congreso de los Diputados e hice un hilo de Twitter. Aquí lo tenéis (tb está el vídeo)- entonces el plan eran "sólo" 61.000 m.

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More from @lugaricano

Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 16
This Draghi piece is a quiet indictment on the @EUCommission's failrue on its core Treaty mandate: "establishing the internal market" & ensuring "free movement of goods, persons, services and capital."
A thread with the facts adn saying the quiet part out loud
1/ Image
PRICES:
IMF shows EU internal barriers =
- 45% tariff on manufacturing,
- 110% on services.

As services become more important in the economy, barriers on service trade create an even bigger drag on growth.

2/
 ft.com/content/13a830…
PRICES:
Trade costs in services have fallen more for non-EU imports (16%) than within the EU (11%) since mid-1990s.

This shouldn't happen in a truly integrated market.
3/
Read 9 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 15
The Italian SuperBonus: How a badly designed fiscal "stimulus" ballooned to 6 times its budget to cost 12% of Italy's GDP, and what it tells us about the fiscal governance of Europe.

A thread on my Silicon Continent post.
(1/11) Image
In 2020, Italy launched a program to subsidize 110% of home renovation costs. The objective was to improve energy efficiency and stimulate an economy.

Initially budgeted at €35B, it will end up costing €220B.
(2/11)
siliconcontinent.com/p/how-to-incin…
As any economists would have pointed out, the program creates perverse incentives: the homeowner and the builder share the incentive to make the biggest renovation possible.
Indeed @lucianocapone (hero of this story) wrote it the day it was approved
3/ ilfoglio.it/economia/2020/…Image
Image
Read 11 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 7
The Netherlands is Europe’s best-governed country. Unfortunately, it is paralyzed. Construction is freezing up, and Europe’s most valuable tech company (ASML) is threatening to leave. What happened should be a warning for every other EU member state. THREAD (1/11) Image
2/ The EU's Habitats Directive required protected nature areas with strict nitrogen thresholds. The Netherlands spread these areas out.

Emissions limits are now breached across the country. Link to today’s post by @pietergaricano:
siliconcontinent.com/p/target-price…
3/11 In 2019, courts ruled the govt’s approach illegal and construction was frozen.

The govt announced a plan to spend 2% GDP to mitigate emissions.
Read 11 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 15
🧵While Brussels dreams up new billion-euro funds, businesses suffocate under red tape. Draghi's report maps our regulatory labyrinth, yet prescribes more debt as the cure. France now pays higher rates than Greece. Here's the story.
(From my Silicon Continent post today)
1/10 Image
Over the last decade, we've witnessed an unprecedented debt explosion. Just energy crisis measures cost €651bn in 16 months.

Yet EU growth remains anemic. Our supposedly "neoliberal" era has paradoxically increased business regulations and constraints.
siliconcontinent.com/p/focus-on-the…
The alternative can be seen in the countries forced to reform during the euro crisis. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Cyprus have outperformed the eurozone in growth and job creation for a decade. Not from debt - from structural reform. Image
Read 10 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Dec 18, 2024
1/10 Europe just got a brutal wake-up call about green energy math. When wind & sun disappeared in December, electricity prices shot up 20X. Our current plans for batteries and storage won't solve this for decades. Here's the real numbers 🧵 Image
2/10 Case in point: December 2023's "dunkelflaute" in Europe. No wind, no sun. Result? Electricity prices spiked 20x in Norway, hit record highs in Netherlands, and led Spain's authorities to cut power to factories 🌑
Link to the post by @pietergaricano

siliconcontinent.com/p/intermittenc…
3/10 People confuse power (GW) with energy (GWh). A 1GW battery might sound as good as a 1GW nuclear plant. But batteries run for hours, nuclear runs forever. During a 4-day "dark doldrums," that nuclear plant makes 96GWh - while your battery is long dead.
Read 11 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 27, 2024
The ECB is handicapping its digital euro project (strict holding limits, no interest payments, and mandatory bank account links) in order to protect the current broken, inefficient, subsidized banking system.

Do we need banks?

My post today in Silicon Continent
🧵 Image
The ECB wants to give Europeans direct central bank accounts for payments. Their goal? Compete with Bitcoin and lower transaction costs by cutting out Visa/Mastercard fees. Sounds great... until you see the restrictions.
2/10
siliconcontinent.com/p/do-we-need-b…
They impose these restrictions to avoid financial instability (warning: usually this expression means a banker wants to pick your pocket).

Why protect banks when they're becoming obsolete? Non-bank players now handle mortgages, payments, corporate credit, etc.
3/10 Image
Read 10 tweets

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