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Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
@lugaricano
May 20, 2021 • 14 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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Hoy presenté a la prensa mi análisis del Plan de Recuperación español, el único que importa, en el que nos jugamos los 70.000 millones fondos europeos.

Mi valoración es que, actualmente, el plan NO cumple las reglas europeas y es una enorme oportunidad perdida. HILO 1/13
El Plan tiene 3 grandes carencias:
1) Faltan reformas a los problemas estructurales de España
2) El paquete de inversiones no es suficiente para transformar nuestra economía
3) No es un plan de país, es un manifiesto de partido sin consenso político. 2/13
Los problemas que hay que resolver son conocidos: y afectan
- Las Administraciones Públicas
- La competitividad empresarial
- La ciencia y la investigación
- La Educación
- El Empleo
- La sostenibilidad fiscal
EN NINGUNO DE ELLOS HAY REFORMAS DE CALADO 3/13
La reforma de las pensiones es una tomadura de pelo. Se vende como “reformas” lo que solo son trucos contables, contrarreformas o meras listas de deseos. NO son reformas, son parches. 4/13
En el apartado fiscal, más de los mismo, se ocultan los detalles relevantes. ¿Alguien se cree que encargar un informe o crear un comité de expertos va a pasar en Bruselas como una reforma fiscal seria? 5/13
La reforma del sistema educativo es la gran decepción del plan. Es el problema número UNO de España y las medidas incluidas son cortoplacistas, cosméticas y no cuentan con consensos políticos amplios. ¿De verdad es la ley Celáa es una reforma de recorrido? 6/13
En cuanto a la reforma laboral, hay buenas intenciones con respecto a los ERTEs o la simplificación de contratos.
Sin embargo, se repiten viejos errores en políticas activas (vuelta al modelo de subvenciones andaluz) y en negociación colectiva. 7/13
Las inversiones tampoco servirán para transformar la economía española. El Gobierno ha preferido gastar en cosas (rentables electoralmente) antes que en personas. España es el país de la UE con mayor abandono escolar y desempleo juvenil. ¿No deberían ser la prioridad? 8/13
El plan gasta 1.412 millones en equipamiento educativo digital, que si n va acompañado de una reforma educativo solo beneficiará a los que venden portátiles. Los programas educativos que sí podrían marcar la diferencia están infrafinanciados. 9/13
En España hay 580.000 menores de 25 años que están desempleados. El programa clave para que los jóvenes alternen formación con empleo llegará a... ¡3.000 personas en 3 años! El pacto intergeneracional está roto y el Gobierno no usará el plan de recuperación para arreglarlo 10/13
El Gobierno ha ignorado a la oposición, a las CCAA y ayuntamiento y ni siquiera ha llevado el plan al Congreso de lo Diputados

Pedro Sánchez hoy: “Dialoguemos para decidir qué país queremos ser en 30 años”. Ese diálogo debía haberse hecho entorno al plan de recuperación. 11/13
Después de haber estudiado el plan se cumplen los peores temores: el Gobierno va a desaprovechar la oportunidad de transformar España. 12/13
Aquí podéis ver la rueda de prensa donde hago un análisis detallado del plan 👇13/13

Algunos lectores del hilo me preguntan cómo gastaría/con qué prioridades el dinero. En junio de 2020 lo expliqué en el Congreso de los Diputados e hice un hilo de Twitter. Aquí lo tenéis (tb está el vídeo)- entonces el plan eran "sólo" 61.000 m.

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More from @lugaricano

Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 28
1/@EpochAIResearch doubles down on preiction AI will drive 20%+ annual GDP growth. Economists remain skeptical.
This is the defining debate of today: AI builders see infinite prosperity ahead. Economists see the same limits that constrained every technological revolution.🧵 1/13 Image
2/The economists' core insight, which Epoch misses, is that progress works itself out of a job.
The more successful a technology becomes, the less it matters economically. Revolutionary technologies shrink their own importance precisely through their success. Larry Summers: Image
3/Consider history's greatest productivity miracle: artificial light.
In 1800, one hour of reading light cost more than a day's wages. By the 1990s, we produced the same light using 1/3,000th the energy. The price fell 40,000x. Image
Read 13 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 19
1/10 🧵 @masuch_klaus have written a post arguing the late 2010s QE was a big mistake. The debate sounds technical--central banks sold is as technical fine-tuning. But it's massive fiscal policy by unelected officials, creating perverse incentives and wealth transfers. Image
2/10 Fiscal consequences: QE transforms government debt structure. When central banks buy long-term bonds and pay with overnight reserves, they swap fixed-rate debt for floating-rate debt. The state suddenly owes money at today's rates, not yesterday's.siliconcontinent.com/p/the-hidden-c…
3/10 Example: Government issues €100bn in 10-year bonds at 1%. Central bank buys them, creates overnight reserves. When rates hit 3%, annual costs triple from €1bn to €3bn. ECB's €5 trillion portfolio lost ~€650bn when rates rose. Taxpayers absorbed the duration risk.
Read 10 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 29
Germany's powerful Sparkassen (359 local savings banks with €2.5 trillion in assets) are a key obstacle to completing the banking union (together with the Italian government). Why?
THREAD on my Silicon Continent post 1/11 Image
Without a banking union, the sovereign-bank doom loop threatens to return to the EU.
This is where a crisis in a country's government and its banks can dangerously feed each other, a risk now higher with rising interest rates.
Link to post:

2/12siliconcontinent.com/p/the-return-o…
The Sparkassen are deeply tied to local German politics. County governments appoint their board members and committee chairs.

According to @nicolas_veron and Markgraf @Bruegel_org 82 percent of Sparkassen board chairs are elected officials.
3/12 Image
Read 12 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 30
THREAD: It is clear that something has gone horribly wrong in European energy policy. How did this happen? Why did the entire political center go along with this?
My views on the anatomy of an error from our post today. 1/11🧵 Image
Like many, I assumed grid operators, utilities, and industry would intervene if truly catastrophic policies were being implemented. We trusted that leaders like Angela Merkel and Mark Rutte would get sound advice and make sensible decisions. 2/
siliconcontinent.com/p/anatomy-of-a…
Why did politics fail?
My hypothesis: climate action is politically difficult. Its benefits are slow and global. Voters know they can free-ride, while immediate costs are clear and the worst climate impacts fall on future generations. Selling sacrifice is hard. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 16
This Draghi piece is a quiet indictment on the @EUCommission's failrue on its core Treaty mandate: "establishing the internal market" & ensuring "free movement of goods, persons, services and capital."
A thread with the facts adn saying the quiet part out loud
1/ Image
PRICES:
IMF shows EU internal barriers =
- 45% tariff on manufacturing,
- 110% on services.

As services become more important in the economy, barriers on service trade create an even bigger drag on growth.

2/
 ft.com/content/13a830…
PRICES:
Trade costs in services have fallen more for non-EU imports (16%) than within the EU (11%) since mid-1990s.

This shouldn't happen in a truly integrated market.
3/
Read 9 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 15
The Italian SuperBonus: How a badly designed fiscal "stimulus" ballooned to 6 times its budget to cost 12% of Italy's GDP, and what it tells us about the fiscal governance of Europe.

A thread on my Silicon Continent post.
(1/11) Image
In 2020, Italy launched a program to subsidize 110% of home renovation costs. The objective was to improve energy efficiency and stimulate an economy.

Initially budgeted at €35B, it will end up costing €220B.
(2/11)
siliconcontinent.com/p/how-to-incin…
As any economists would have pointed out, the program creates perverse incentives: the homeowner and the builder share the incentive to make the biggest renovation possible.
Indeed @lucianocapone (hero of this story) wrote it the day it was approved
3/ ilfoglio.it/economia/2020/…Image
Image
Read 11 tweets

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