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Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
@lugaricano
May 20, 2021 • 14 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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Hoy presenté a la prensa mi análisis del Plan de Recuperación español, el único que importa, en el que nos jugamos los 70.000 millones fondos europeos.

Mi valoración es que, actualmente, el plan NO cumple las reglas europeas y es una enorme oportunidad perdida. HILO 1/13
El Plan tiene 3 grandes carencias:
1) Faltan reformas a los problemas estructurales de España
2) El paquete de inversiones no es suficiente para transformar nuestra economía
3) No es un plan de país, es un manifiesto de partido sin consenso político. 2/13
Los problemas que hay que resolver son conocidos: y afectan
- Las Administraciones Públicas
- La competitividad empresarial
- La ciencia y la investigación
- La Educación
- El Empleo
- La sostenibilidad fiscal
EN NINGUNO DE ELLOS HAY REFORMAS DE CALADO 3/13
La reforma de las pensiones es una tomadura de pelo. Se vende como “reformas” lo que solo son trucos contables, contrarreformas o meras listas de deseos. NO son reformas, son parches. 4/13
En el apartado fiscal, más de los mismo, se ocultan los detalles relevantes. ¿Alguien se cree que encargar un informe o crear un comité de expertos va a pasar en Bruselas como una reforma fiscal seria? 5/13
La reforma del sistema educativo es la gran decepción del plan. Es el problema número UNO de España y las medidas incluidas son cortoplacistas, cosméticas y no cuentan con consensos políticos amplios. ¿De verdad es la ley Celáa es una reforma de recorrido? 6/13
En cuanto a la reforma laboral, hay buenas intenciones con respecto a los ERTEs o la simplificación de contratos.
Sin embargo, se repiten viejos errores en políticas activas (vuelta al modelo de subvenciones andaluz) y en negociación colectiva. 7/13
Las inversiones tampoco servirán para transformar la economía española. El Gobierno ha preferido gastar en cosas (rentables electoralmente) antes que en personas. España es el país de la UE con mayor abandono escolar y desempleo juvenil. ¿No deberían ser la prioridad? 8/13
El plan gasta 1.412 millones en equipamiento educativo digital, que si n va acompañado de una reforma educativo solo beneficiará a los que venden portátiles. Los programas educativos que sí podrían marcar la diferencia están infrafinanciados. 9/13
En España hay 580.000 menores de 25 años que están desempleados. El programa clave para que los jóvenes alternen formación con empleo llegará a... ¡3.000 personas en 3 años! El pacto intergeneracional está roto y el Gobierno no usará el plan de recuperación para arreglarlo 10/13
El Gobierno ha ignorado a la oposición, a las CCAA y ayuntamiento y ni siquiera ha llevado el plan al Congreso de lo Diputados

Pedro Sánchez hoy: “Dialoguemos para decidir qué país queremos ser en 30 años”. Ese diálogo debía haberse hecho entorno al plan de recuperación. 11/13
Después de haber estudiado el plan se cumplen los peores temores: el Gobierno va a desaprovechar la oportunidad de transformar España. 12/13
Aquí podéis ver la rueda de prensa donde hago un análisis detallado del plan 👇13/13

Algunos lectores del hilo me preguntan cómo gastaría/con qué prioridades el dinero. En junio de 2020 lo expliqué en el Congreso de los Diputados e hice un hilo de Twitter. Aquí lo tenéis (tb está el vídeo)- entonces el plan eran "sólo" 61.000 m.

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More from @lugaricano

Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 15
🧵While Brussels dreams up new billion-euro funds, businesses suffocate under red tape. Draghi's report maps our regulatory labyrinth, yet prescribes more debt as the cure. France now pays higher rates than Greece. Here's the story.
(From my Silicon Continent post today)
1/10 Image
Over the last decade, we've witnessed an unprecedented debt explosion. Just energy crisis measures cost €651bn in 16 months.

Yet EU growth remains anemic. Our supposedly "neoliberal" era has paradoxically increased business regulations and constraints.
siliconcontinent.com/p/focus-on-the…
The alternative can be seen in the countries forced to reform during the euro crisis. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Cyprus have outperformed the eurozone in growth and job creation for a decade. Not from debt - from structural reform. Image
Read 10 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Dec 18, 2024
1/10 Europe just got a brutal wake-up call about green energy math. When wind & sun disappeared in December, electricity prices shot up 20X. Our current plans for batteries and storage won't solve this for decades. Here's the real numbers 🧵 Image
2/10 Case in point: December 2023's "dunkelflaute" in Europe. No wind, no sun. Result? Electricity prices spiked 20x in Norway, hit record highs in Netherlands, and led Spain's authorities to cut power to factories 🌑
Link to the post by @pietergaricano

siliconcontinent.com/p/intermittenc…
3/10 People confuse power (GW) with energy (GWh). A 1GW battery might sound as good as a 1GW nuclear plant. But batteries run for hours, nuclear runs forever. During a 4-day "dark doldrums," that nuclear plant makes 96GWh - while your battery is long dead.
Read 11 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 27, 2024
The ECB is handicapping its digital euro project (strict holding limits, no interest payments, and mandatory bank account links) in order to protect the current broken, inefficient, subsidized banking system.

Do we need banks?

My post today in Silicon Continent
🧵 Image
The ECB wants to give Europeans direct central bank accounts for payments. Their goal? Compete with Bitcoin and lower transaction costs by cutting out Visa/Mastercard fees. Sounds great... until you see the restrictions.
2/10
siliconcontinent.com/p/do-we-need-b…
They impose these restrictions to avoid financial instability (warning: usually this expression means a banker wants to pick your pocket).

Why protect banks when they're becoming obsolete? Non-bank players now handle mortgages, payments, corporate credit, etc.
3/10 Image
Read 10 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 13, 2024
Europe had an effective tool for climate action: the Emissions Trading System (ETS). Instead of expanding this market-based solution, we've built a byzantine regulatory framework that goes far beyond emissions reduction.
THREAD on my post today on the "Compliance Doom Loop"
1/10 Image
Costs are staggering: Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) requires 42,000 companies report 1,052 data points (783 mandatory). Cost: €150K-1M per company annually.
CSRD compliance costs of 12.5% of investment of mid sized firms (EIB).

2/ siliconcontinent.com/p/the-complian…Image
Danish firms face 63% more regulations in 2023 vs 2001. Chemical industry SME compliance costs nearly doubled: €332.5K (2014) to €577K (2023). Add GDPR: €500K-10M more.
3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 6, 2024
Wake-up Europe! Enough of the de-growth agenda!
There is no strategic autonomy while we spend our every waking hour erecting barriers to growth!
THREAD on the post today in Silicon Continent by @pietergaricano.
1/8
Today's Trump victory makes Europe's strategic autonomy urgent. But Europe has lived beyond its means through "luxury rules" - virtuous but growth-hurting policies that were only possible due to US protection and innovation.
2/
 siliconcontinent.com/p/the-end-of-l…
Luxury rules are laws that make our privileged societies feel good but harm competitiveness. Like Germany closing nuclear plants in 2011, increasing reliance on imported gas, or the EU's GDPR hurting tech innovation.
3/
Read 8 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 30, 2024
The EU AI Act seems designed to allow AI only for routine tasks while hindering its use in high-level problem-solving.

This will endanger European AI startups and significantly damage EU productivity.

THREAD on our post today in Silicon Continent.
1/9 Image
An AI bank teller in the EU would need two humans to oversee it. A startup building an AI tutor faces countless hurdles before launching. The is the reality under the EU AI Act—a well-meaning but flawed attempt to regulate AI.
2/
 siliconcontinent.com/p/the-strange-…
The Act classifies AI systems by risk: unacceptable, high, limited, and minimal. Unacceptable systems, like social scoring or workplace emotion recognition, are banned.
Fines can reach €15 million or 3% of global revenue.
3/
Read 9 tweets

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