Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
@lugaricano
May 20, 2021 • 14 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Hoy presenté a la prensa mi análisis del Plan de Recuperación español, el único que importa, en el que nos jugamos los 70.000 millones fondos europeos.

Mi valoración es que, actualmente, el plan NO cumple las reglas europeas y es una enorme oportunidad perdida. HILO 1/13
El Plan tiene 3 grandes carencias:
1) Faltan reformas a los problemas estructurales de España
2) El paquete de inversiones no es suficiente para transformar nuestra economía
3) No es un plan de país, es un manifiesto de partido sin consenso político. 2/13
Los problemas que hay que resolver son conocidos: y afectan
- Las Administraciones Públicas
- La competitividad empresarial
- La ciencia y la investigación
- La Educación
- El Empleo
- La sostenibilidad fiscal
EN NINGUNO DE ELLOS HAY REFORMAS DE CALADO 3/13
La reforma de las pensiones es una tomadura de pelo. Se vende como “reformas” lo que solo son trucos contables, contrarreformas o meras listas de deseos. NO son reformas, son parches. 4/13
En el apartado fiscal, más de los mismo, se ocultan los detalles relevantes. ¿Alguien se cree que encargar un informe o crear un comité de expertos va a pasar en Bruselas como una reforma fiscal seria? 5/13
La reforma del sistema educativo es la gran decepción del plan. Es el problema número UNO de España y las medidas incluidas son cortoplacistas, cosméticas y no cuentan con consensos políticos amplios. ¿De verdad es la ley Celáa es una reforma de recorrido? 6/13
En cuanto a la reforma laboral, hay buenas intenciones con respecto a los ERTEs o la simplificación de contratos.
Sin embargo, se repiten viejos errores en políticas activas (vuelta al modelo de subvenciones andaluz) y en negociación colectiva. 7/13
Las inversiones tampoco servirán para transformar la economía española. El Gobierno ha preferido gastar en cosas (rentables electoralmente) antes que en personas. España es el país de la UE con mayor abandono escolar y desempleo juvenil. ¿No deberían ser la prioridad? 8/13
El plan gasta 1.412 millones en equipamiento educativo digital, que si n va acompañado de una reforma educativo solo beneficiará a los que venden portátiles. Los programas educativos que sí podrían marcar la diferencia están infrafinanciados. 9/13
En España hay 580.000 menores de 25 años que están desempleados. El programa clave para que los jóvenes alternen formación con empleo llegará a... ¡3.000 personas en 3 años! El pacto intergeneracional está roto y el Gobierno no usará el plan de recuperación para arreglarlo 10/13
El Gobierno ha ignorado a la oposición, a las CCAA y ayuntamiento y ni siquiera ha llevado el plan al Congreso de lo Diputados

Pedro Sánchez hoy: “Dialoguemos para decidir qué país queremos ser en 30 años”. Ese diálogo debía haberse hecho entorno al plan de recuperación. 11/13
Después de haber estudiado el plan se cumplen los peores temores: el Gobierno va a desaprovechar la oportunidad de transformar España. 12/13
Aquí podéis ver la rueda de prensa donde hago un análisis detallado del plan 👇13/13

Algunos lectores del hilo me preguntan cómo gastaría/con qué prioridades el dinero. En junio de 2020 lo expliqué en el Congreso de los Diputados e hice un hilo de Twitter. Aquí lo tenéis (tb está el vídeo)- entonces el plan eran "sólo" 61.000 m.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦

Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @lugaricano

Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 13
Europe had an effective tool for climate action: the Emissions Trading System (ETS). Instead of expanding this market-based solution, we've built a byzantine regulatory framework that goes far beyond emissions reduction.
THREAD on my post today on the "Compliance Doom Loop"
1/10 Image
Costs are staggering: Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) requires 42,000 companies report 1,052 data points (783 mandatory). Cost: €150K-1M per company annually.
CSRD compliance costs of 12.5% of investment of mid sized firms (EIB).

2/ siliconcontinent.com/p/the-complian…Image
Danish firms face 63% more regulations in 2023 vs 2001. Chemical industry SME compliance costs nearly doubled: €332.5K (2014) to €577K (2023). Add GDPR: €500K-10M more.
3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 6
Wake-up Europe! Enough of the de-growth agenda!
There is no strategic autonomy while we spend our every waking hour erecting barriers to growth!
THREAD on the post today in Silicon Continent by @pietergaricano.
1/8
Today's Trump victory makes Europe's strategic autonomy urgent. But Europe has lived beyond its means through "luxury rules" - virtuous but growth-hurting policies that were only possible due to US protection and innovation.
2/
 siliconcontinent.com/p/the-end-of-l…
Luxury rules are laws that make our privileged societies feel good but harm competitiveness. Like Germany closing nuclear plants in 2011, increasing reliance on imported gas, or the EU's GDPR hurting tech innovation.
3/
Read 8 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 30
The EU AI Act seems designed to allow AI only for routine tasks while hindering its use in high-level problem-solving.

This will endanger European AI startups and significantly damage EU productivity.

THREAD on our post today in Silicon Continent.
1/9 Image
An AI bank teller in the EU would need two humans to oversee it. A startup building an AI tutor faces countless hurdles before launching. The is the reality under the EU AI Act—a well-meaning but flawed attempt to regulate AI.
2/
 siliconcontinent.com/p/the-strange-…
The Act classifies AI systems by risk: unacceptable, high, limited, and minimal. Unacceptable systems, like social scoring or workplace emotion recognition, are banned.
Fines can reach €15 million or 3% of global revenue.
3/
Read 9 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 16
We keep hearing how solving Europe’s innovation stagnation requires more public spending. But the numbers show otherwise: the EU falls behind in private R&D investment, not public.
A thread based on this week’s blog.
1/10
siliconcontinent.com/p/the-problem-…Image
As a share of GDP, Europe spends 0.74% on public sector R&D, compared to the U.S. 0.69%.

The actual R&D gap is in private sector spending, where Europe spends 1.3% of GDP compared to the United States' 2.4%!
That gap is worth 341 billion in R&D spending in 2021. /2
Take the story of DeepMind. It is a contemporary of EU's AI flagship, the Human Brain Project, launched in 2013 with €600M in public funding, aimed to simulate a human brain in 10 years. It's now widely regarded as a failure, while DeepMind leads in AI. /3
Read 10 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 19
New data shows that the EU Commission has blown the chance the NextGen gave it to get the EU on a growth path. Two key elements.
1. Pensions in Spain.
2. Reforms in italy.

The new data is from the ageing report of the EU Commission on the budgetary impact of the pension "reforms"- more below

( h/t @rdomenechv @fernandosols with official data from the Spanish government.)

Small THREAD (1/7)economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/2…
The EU NextGen plans gave an unprecedented and powerful stick to the EU Commission to demand reforms and investments in exchange of money. Never has the Commission had the chance to get states to get some reforms going.

In Spain, the EU Commission has been complicit (in spite of numerous warnings) in setting Spain on an unsustainable Fiscal path
(2/7)
Under cover (!!!) of the "reforms" required by the European NextGen plan, the Spanish government abrogated the 2012 reforms of pensions (the single reform done by the Rajoy government), based on an automatic adjustment mechanism, without putting anything else meaningful in place.

The cost is 3.3 points of GDP higher than before the reform.

(3)Image
Read 7 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 15
Some reactions to the (wonderful) Levitt interview.
1) On the @uchicago PhD program and the atmosphere in the department in the 90s (toxic?).
2) On Price Theory and its future at @uchicago and beyond.
3) On the "technification" of economics and the blurring of the "theory-empirics" boundaries.
(link to interview: )
(Thread)
1/npodcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ste…
1) On the Econ PhD Program. I went in 1992, graduated in 1998. I did not feel the ambiance was toxic. It was tough work, almost brutal, not toxic. I was given a chance I would not have gotten elsewhere. There was nothing personal about the standards. We were getting trained by the best and that was intellectually invaluable -we got the chance of a lifetime. Here are some profs of my first two years (note 5 nobels):
Macro: Sargent, Lucas, Cochrane, Woodford, Stokey, Townsend.
Micro: Becker, Rosen, Murphy, Scheinkman
Metrics: Hansen, Heckman, Zellner.
It was extremely hard, by far the hardest thing I have ever done. But it should be hard. They were trying to put a bunch of kids at the frontier of knowledge.
It was not for everyone, but we knew what we were getting into. My admired supervisor, Sherwin Rosen, then department chair, gave us a "superstar" (he wrote THE paper after all) talk on the first day. He told us half of us would fail in the first year Core (and exit with an MA, is that so bad?), half of the rest would not make the prelims. Of the 50 we were there, maybe 10 would finish the PhD, most of those would never get any citation.
And yet we persisted. We wanted to learn, and were grateful for the hance.
2/n
2) On Price Theory. What is the Chicago Price Theory style? Best thing I can recommend is to experience it yourself by listening to the playlist of Kevin Murphy's classes. . He is an amazing teacher, and makes economics come alive.
Is it true as Levitt says, quoting Mulligan to Friedman, that this style of Micro lost in the market place of ideas?
3/nyoutube.com/@chicagopricet…
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(