Thread by @DKThomp

I wrote about the Texas mask mystery

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

When Gov. Abbott lifted the state’s mandate, liberals predicted disaster. Disaster never came. What does that really tell us?

Explanation 1: Lifting mandates did very little, because masks do very little.

This is the interpretation that conservatives are most excited about, but I'm persuaded by the evidence that masks do important work to block an aerosolized virus.

Explanation 2: Lifting mandates did very little, because weather effects and vaccines were already kneecapping the virus in Texas.

I think this one more, but I think the Texas mask mystery is telling us something a bit more profound about public behavior ...

Explanation 3: Lifting mask mandates in Texas didn’t matter because *the policy change didn't actually change most people's behavior.*

Pro-maskers (esp. in urban aeas) kept their masks on. Anti-maskers kept their masks in the trash.

Gov. Abbott shouted into a void.

This is my big takeaway from the Texas mask mystery:

Across the country, people’s pandemic behavior appears to be disconnected from local policy, which complicates any effort to know which COVID-19 policies actually "work."

You might think that mask mandates, lockdowns, and CDC guidance determine people's pandemic behavior.

But the strongest evidence points the opposite way:

Americans' personal risk assessments are relatively impervious to policy shifts.

The pandemic began as a vast experiment in public health policy.

But it's become a vast experiment in ~individual~ health policy. In the absence of clear national guidance, we've all become our own COVID sleuths; every household its own private CDC.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…