JPR007 Profile picture
May 21, 2021 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
ADAC BEV SUMMARY 20210521

Our BEV study using ADAC data for Germany has looked at a range of different vehicles with different levels of Power

And it has included some ICEV vehicles chosen by ADAC for comparison to the Tesla Model 3
It shows that BEVs are now available in Germany at lower price points than ICEVs with the same Power rating

Tesla Model 3 has the lowest Price at its respective Power points

The most popular BEVs are relatively low-powered compared to the Tesla Model 3 variants SR+, LR and P
The biggest Cost Of Ownership is the Depreciation of the vehicle
And ADAC has typically estimated the 5-year Depreciation of the BEV study vehicles to be in the range of 50-60%
This is noticeably less Depreciation than ADAC estimates for the comparable ICEVs that we studied, which were typically expected to suffer around 70% Depreciation over a 5-year ownership period with 15,000 km per year

So ADAC expects BEVs to HOLD THEIR VALUE BETTER THAN ICEVs
Fixed Costs are basically Insurance and Taxes

And these monthly costs tended to trend upwards with the higher-powered vehicles

- although there were curious anomalies
The Cost of Ownership per Kilometre does not increase dramatically with Motor Power

And as BEV manufacturers improve their drivetrains we may see customer demand for higher Power without significant increases in Price

BEVs clearly have the potential for higher Power than ICEVs
Power Consumption per 100 km relative to rated Motor Power varied widely

- with the Tesla Model 3 setting the efficient frontier across each of its variants

This suggest that Competitors still have some way to go in terms of drivetrain developement and efficient vehicle design
The biggest effect of this shows up in the kilometre Range of the sample vehicles

- which we show here calculated from the Battery Size divided by the reported Power Consumption
Not surprisingly, better Acceleration correlates directly with higher Motor Power
The Tesla Model 3 has the highest Acceleration at each of its Price points

- and spending more money on other BEVs does not get you more performance with the reference base models shown here

But BEVs are outperforming ICEVs at comparable price points
For this last chart, we have used Price / Power to define the horizontal axis

And we are showing performance in the form of Acceleration as the vertical axis

We have also included the Tesla Model S, Model X and Model Y

The message is clear :

TESLA IS SELLING PERFORMANCE

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More from @jpr007

Aug 10, 2023
JAPANESE AUTO INDUSTRY

Consider CTD's core thesis . . .

1. Toyota and Honda established early leadership in the technology for Hydrogen-powered vehicles

2. This incentivized them to use their Lobbying Power to build substantial domestic Support for a Hydrogen Initiative
3. Visualizing a Successful Outcome, they would have held a Competitive Duopoly with all the Advantages which that can be expected to bring

This combination of factors is leading to a broad-based failure of the Japanese Automobile Industry

-------

What can we learn from this ?
Now consider an alternative scenario where the Japanese Government had instead been inspired to get out ahead of BEV Supply Chain issues during the last two decades, and successfully solve for all of raw material and technology needs of BEVs
Read 11 tweets
Jul 3, 2023
CASH FOR CLUNKERS ?

According to Colorado Public Radio, the state is considering a "Vehicle Exchange Colorado” program to give participants an instant $6,000 point of sale rebate on a new electric or plug-in hybrid vehicle cleantechnica.com/2023/05/31/col…
Or a $4,000 rebate for a used electric or plug-in hybrid vehicle

"It’s a really exciting new program,” said Carrie Atiyeh, senior program manager at the Colorado Energy Office

"This is something that is going to be new for the state"
To qualify, drivers would need to trade in a conventional car with an internal combustion engine that burns either gasoline or diesel

The vehicle needs to be a model year 2011 or older, or have failed a state vehicle emissions test
Read 8 tweets
May 7, 2023
@remarkabubble @CorySteuben Nothing stands in the way of 20 million except for execution

And Tesla keeps getting better at execution every year

Now let me deepen my response for you :

1. If Management says their plan is 20 million, that is the first thing that you should pay attention

- they are driving
@remarkabubble @CorySteuben 2. If Management says they are committed to growing at +50% per year, that is the second thing you should pay attention to

- and if they do the Second Thing right you will notice that the First Thing happens sooner than you think Image
@remarkabubble @CorySteuben 3. The Third Thing that you can check is whether they are living up to that +50% per annum growth rate

- and it turns out that they certainly are

I can cut that a bunch of ways for you but they all show the same thing

- beating the numbers ImageImage
Read 9 tweets
May 7, 2023
QUESTION OF THE DAY 20230507

How can Apple AAPL shareholders expect to maintain the High P/E of a Growth company in a world where the Company's business has clearly become mature ?

Here is Apple's Press Release on their latest Quarterly Results

apple.com/newsroom/2023/…
APPLE'S OWN PRESS RELEASE :

"The Company posted quarterly revenue of $94.8 billion, down -3% year over year, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $1.52, unchanged year over year"

“We generated strong operating cash flow of $28.6 billion while returning over $23 billion… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
“Given our confidence in Apple’s future and the value we see in our stock, our Board has authorized an additional $90 billion for share repurchases"

"We are also raising our quarterly dividend for the eleventh year in a row"
Read 21 tweets
May 5, 2023
CARLOS TAVARES HAS GIVEN EUROPE A LOUD AND CLEAR WARNING

1. Expect the Purchase Price of Electric Cars produced in Asia and America to fall to €25,000
2. Failing to change the existing cost structures in Europe will mean that every e-car will be produced outside the continent in future

Tavares warned on the sidelines of the "Car Symposium" in Bochum :

"This is a very powerful way of draining the car industry out of Europe"
"For 30 years, fierce international competition has kept the cost of living low for Europeans," said Tavares

The painful consequence :

- production has been increasingly moving to Asia

This scenario is now threatening to continue in the car industry
Read 5 tweets
May 4, 2023
TESLA SEMI PERFORMANCE

PepsiCo will enter at least one of its Tesla Semis in the Run On Less trucking industry event running for three weeks starting September 11, the company confirmed on Wednesday
insideevs.com/news/665498/fi…
The event showcases advances in freight efficiency, and will provide the first independent performance data for Tesla's all-electric Class 8 semi-truck, according to Automotive News
"We're really excited to participate in the run and allow the industry to have access to the insights and the learnings that we are getting from experiencing these vehicles"
Read 7 tweets

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