Leading Nowhere Profile picture
May 22, 2021 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Family-run listed companies with diverse promoter businesses sometimes decide to take minority shareholders for a ride. Here's a live example.

A thread 👇 (1/n)
Jindal Steel and Power Limited (JSPL) has a subsidiary, Jindal Power Limited (JPL), with 3400 MW of power generation assets. These assets cost JSPL INR 4.4 crore per MW, totaling approximately INR 14,950 crore in capital expenditure. (2/n)
JPL generated INR 960 crore cash profit in FY19-20, and is on track to achieve approx. INR 2000 crore of profit before tax and interest on an annualized basis. By all means, this is a mature business generating excellent cash flows for JSPL. 96% of JPL is held by JSPL. (3/n)
JPL seems to have enough cash flow to be making substantial advances to JSPL, to the tune of almost INR 4500 crore. Further, JSPL seems to have also given loans to JPL of a similar amount. Whatever the reasons for the two-way flow, JPL clearly generates a lot of cash. (4/n)
JSPL management, as recently as March 2020, was confident of even better performance at JPL. Electricity demand has hit record levels in 2021, matched by a commensurate improvement in JPL financials as of March 2021. If electricity can be called a commodity, it is booming. (5/n)
Towards the end of April 2021, JSPL held a board meeting and decided to divest its entire 96.42% shareholding in JPL to its own promoter entity, Worldone, for cash consideration of INR 3015 crore. Further, 4400 crore advance by JPL to JSPL were to be turned into loans. (6/n)
The promoter entity was 'selected' in an 'elaborate' process and was the highest bidder at 'acceptable terms'. What bids were received? What was the process? What was the valuation metrics? Why was the INR 4400 crore advance not appropriated or returned prior to bidding? (7/n)
Coal power plants have a generally accepted valuation of INR 5-6 crore per MW. Even distress sales (which this is not) take place at INR 3-4 crore per MW. Recent deals in the public space clearly evidence this. What kind of benchmark was taken for this related party sale? (8/n)
For assets generating almost INR 2000 crore on annualized basis, how is a valuation of only INR 3015 crore justified? Further, JSPL is itself undergoing capacity expansion for which it will need to raise debt. The net debt reduction for JSPL would be only INR 2000 crore. (9/n)
JPL has debt of approx. INR 6500 crore, why can't JPL service these loans out of its annualized INR 2000 crore of profit before interest and tax? 6500 crore of debt would cost INR 780 crore in interest even at 12%. The entity is self sustaining, why lend INR 4400 crore? (10/n)
Why not square off the loans and advances b/w JSPL and JPL and value JPL cleanly? Currently, 15000 crore EV assets are being sold for 3000 crore cash and loans made out of money that belonged to JSPL shareholders in the first place (by virtue of 96% ownership) (11/n).
This move has definitely ruffled some feathers among possibly institutional investors in JSPL, because the EGM to be held on 24 May 2021 was hastily postponed on 20 May 2021. Behind the bravado and platitudes, clearly there is a lot of scrambling going on. (12/n)
Management owes a lot of explanation to minority shareholders, and should be engaging all shareholders instead of just "concerned parties". It needs approval of only the FII and DII shareholders (27.5% of share capital), but retail should also demand full information. (13/n)
Over and out. (14/n)
P.S. Not invested, this is just commentary and not a recommendation to buy, sell or take any action whatsoever. (15/n)

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More from @leading_nowhere

Aug 28, 2023
SEBI finally going after the finfluencer-broker nexus. Right time to point out Zerodha founders have tried all along to whitewash their role by acting holier than thou. One of them was caught cheating in an exhibition charity match with Vishwanathan Anand too. Leopard's spots...
So while on one side you have the founders going around 'cautioning' the retail public on trading and speculation, on the other side you have a massive funnel of fraud finfluencers directing traffic your way, driving the thousands of crores in profits. The house always wins.
The funnel relies on psychological manipulation and relies on a layer of separation (finfluencer)...history of speculation has shown that warnings and data rarely work where greed and manipulation are concerned...behave like a saint and just let psychology do the work for you.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 4, 2023
EKI Energy...a story.

Auditor of EKI Energy resigned in Nov'22, stating emphatically there was no dispute with management, and audit for H1FY23 was completed by them w/ clean limited review report.

But in Q3FY23, new auditor Walker Chandiok trashed the financials.

(1/12)

Management has recognised revenue, AGAINST opinion of auditor, in absence of fulfillment of contractual performance obligations!

In polite words, this seems to be fake revenue. 190 crore sales (~10%) and 110 crore (~40%) PAT. Almost half PAT is possibly...non-existent.

(2/12)
Now, EKI has STILL not released Q4FY23 results. It says this is because Walker Chandiok has to re-audit H1FY23 which was done by previous auditor. Seems like a valid reason, except it begs the question - why wasn't re-audit of H1FY23 being done since Nov'22?

(3/12)
Read 12 tweets
May 6, 2022
1/ A good way to contextualize PE ratio, think it as earnings yield:

5x = 20%
10x = 10%
20x = 5%
30x = 3.3%
50x = 2%

As you go down this scale, you're paying increasingly more for growth + durability + intangible assumptions. If assumptions uncertain, how much would you pay?
2/ If you're worried about inflation and interest rates, just remember:

A 10% bond purchased at FV 100 is at 10 PE.
A 5% bond at FV 100 is at 20 PE.

It is a very simple way to analyze how much extra you'd pay for equity if I could give you a safe 10% bond instead?
3/ Yes, we are in equities for the unlimited upside, but once you spend a few years in the market and experience the realities, you will get a razorsharp focus on wanting to pay less and get more.

A steady-state earnings yield analysis is an excellent way to get perspective.
Read 10 tweets
May 4, 2022
Most scenarios, vertically-integrated = better margins, as long as cost of key inputs becomes small fraction of costs eventually.

If KI are 50-60% cost at final stage w/ sharp price hike = business at sole mercy of end-customer w/ demand destruction.

Observe next few quarters.
In this scenario, commodity producer will not budge as many buyers in the market. Person who gets squeezed is the penultimate link in the chain. If end-customer unwilling to absorb full price hike, manufacturer WILL be holding the bag to keep the relationship.
Especially pertinent for exporters and industries where demand is very price sensitive. During benign pricing scenario you can get more efficient with vertical integration and improve realizations. However, when basic commodities roar, you will bear disproportionate impact too.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 15, 2022
(Thread)

Some thoughts on investing in listed family-owned businesses.

Cobbled together from several years of investing in and observing such companies, and also some professional interactions with business owners.

👇
1) There are immense latent capabilities in family-owned businesses. People in business for 30-40 years, building incrementally. Eg. so many companies spent *decades* for 0-100, 5 years for 100-500, and are now aiming 500-5000 in next 5 (not accurate, but you get the point)
2) Most promoters aren't looking to rip off investors. But, they will put themselves first. Why? For promoter, business is his life's work (no matter how small) but for you it is an investment. Always see it from this perspective and differentiate every situation.
Read 17 tweets
Apr 10, 2022
The 6 buckets of information I look at when analysing a company for the first time.

Most of these tend to be small companies with little coverage but with larger competitors.

A thread 👇 (1/14)
A. Assessing Promoters -> 60% holding preferably (not iron rule), either highly educated or very experienced in the business. Preferably minimal related party transactions, no unlisted entities with significant operations. Do not grudge high salary if otherwise clean. (2/14)
B. Assessing Balance Sheet - Looking for a clean, boring unremarkable balance sheet, not a good one. Preferably low historical share dilution (not including bonus). Preferably with only working capital debt. Share warrants in small quantities not a red flag. (3/14)
Read 14 tweets

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