Late thread today on Resculpt and Sudden Breakthrough. ALSAs of 9.29 and 8.67, respectively. I didn't talk about these earlier because I think they're correctly evaluated as generally very bad, but I do want to touch on them a bit to show how they can be used. 1/x
Here are the Card Evaluation Metagame graphs for the two. Resculpt was initially a lot higher (though still the lowest blue common); I wonder if other people, like me, thought that its synergy with treasure (like Breakthrough) was going to be good in Prsimari. 2/x
First let's talk about Resculpt. This looks like Angelic Ascension, but the 4/4 not having flying makes a huge difference. Without flying, the 4/4 is much more medium for you, but it's still good enough that you're almost never happy giving it to your opponent either. 3/x
The obvious synergy with Resculpt is treasure tokens; that's the reason why I'm talking about it with Breakthrough. But the problem is that there aren't ways to make treasures incidentally; Breakthrough is bad, Storm-Kiln is medium, and discarding big spells isn't worth it. 4/x
But there are some other synergies worth mentioning: Resculpt serves as a great sac outlet for Mascot Interception, and the rate of upgrading a Pest into an Elemental for 2 mana is fine, but not exciting. 5/x
Beyond that, Resculpt also serves as protection against removal, similar to how Make Your Mark works. But you don't get the ability to trade off in combat while still getting your 4/4, which makes it much worse than Make Your Mark. 6/x
Now let's talk about Sudden Breakthrough. This one is bad mostly because it's a bit below rate and not well positioned. There are a lot of better combat tricks - Enthusiastic Study, Beaming Defiance, Make Your Mark - and not very many decks that want a lot of them. 7/x
However, one unique thing that Breakthrough does is help ramp and fix you by banking a mana in the form of a treasure. This can be useful for casting one big spell, or for splashing, or for a double spell turn, but is one-time-use only. 8/x
So where am I playing these cards? Well, mostly I'm NOT playing them, especially not maindeck. But they do make each other better, and sometimes I side into Resculpt against removal-heavy decks, and then might also decide to side in a Breakthrough to help that package. 9/x
One thing that I kind of want to try but doubt will come together easily is a Grixis deck built around leveraging 1/1s with Resculpt, First Day, and Breakthrough, with the added combos of Interception and Breakthrough with Resculpt. Here, the black is mainly for pests. 10/x
Conclusion: try not to play these cards, and definitely don't pick them highly, but do acknowledge that there is a synergy package that is very hard to make work but might be worth exploring or siding into occasionally. 11/11
Too lazy to look for examples of siding into Resculpt/Breakthrough. @threadreaderapp unroll
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Was talking on Discord a bit about why I think the UW tap deck failed design-wise this format, and figured I'd translate my points here.
So, here's a thread: 1/x
It's pretty clear by now that the UW tap archetype just isn't working in WOE.
UW is the worst color pair in WOE on 17lands - just barely above 50% winrate, which is atrocious, same as LTR scry elves.
I think the reasons for this are actually quite interesting. 2/x
1. The simplest reason is just that blue and white are the two worst colors in WOE.
Every set has color imbalances, this set happens to have those converge on UW being weak. The card quality just isn't there, the commons just not as deep as Jund. 3/x
Bit of a different kind of "underrated card" thread today. I usually don't do rares, and one could reasonably argue that this card is actually mostly *overrated*.
But today, I want to focus on why and how 17lands stats dramatically underrate the card Invasion of Kaldheim.
1/x
As a rare that gets picked a lot higher than I take it (3.14 ALSA in Bo3!), I don't have that much experience actually playing with the card. But it reads pretty strong to me, and has seemed impressive when I've cast it.
So why does it have a whopping *48.8%* GIH WR in Bo1?
2/x
Having a GIH WR below 50% is really bad - by this metric, Invasion of Kaldheim is the 19th worst card in the set, in the vicinity of unsupported buildarounds like Kaheera, Dina, Theros, and Arcavios. If you were drafting purely based on GIH WR, you would never pick it.
As promised, underrated card threads! First up: Urn of Godfire.
I expected this card to be completely unplayable, but recently I've been trying it a lot, and have honestly been impressed.
It's not great overall, but I hope to show where and how to use it in this thread. 1/15
Urn is currently the 10th least-picked card on 17lands in Bo1 (12th in Bo3), with ALSA 8.62 (8.35 in Bo3). Its pick rate seems to be staying roughly even in both Bo1 and Bo3.
So where is Urn good? Well, one of the more obvious use cases is as a bad hard removal spell.
1+6 mana is a lot to remove something, but with a lot of bombs in the set, it can sometimes be quite important to have actual hard removal in your deck.
Thinking of doing underrated card threads again for this set, probably going to try for 2-3 times a week for a bit, and see how it goes?
But first I figure I should talk about Seed of Hope, which was very underrated, but is likely moving towards overrated as people hype it. 1/7
At some point Seed of Hope was the least-picked green common by ALSA, while having something like a 60ish% GIH WR in Bo1.
But after a bunch of content creators have been talking it up, this is no longer the case - it's quickly trending up in ALSA, and down to 56% GIH WR. 2/7
So how good is Seed of Hope? Well, if it didn't have the clause about permanents, it would be like a Consider that gains 2 life (with small differences like being able to bin the second card), which is great! Consider is solid but unexciting in limited, and 2 life is huge. 3/7
Okay I should be asleep right now but instead I did a bit more digging, and it's possible I'm missing something, but it seems that 17lands data contains an exhaustive list of all possible sets of commons in Arena packs of DMU, and that this list is surprisingly small. 1/7
So basically I took the 17lands DMU draft dataset I've been using (which is a bit old, but still has 251,574 drafts), and looked at, for each common, how many different sets of commons it appeared with. And it turns out that the answer is always between 2998 and 3000. 2/7
With about 100 commons, and 10 commons per pack, we can expect each common to show up 25k times, so if the possible sets of commons each show up equally, we'd expect to see each one about 8-9 times. 3/7