Thread by @bopinion

Global warming has increased human activity at the top of the world, and fueled interest from non-polar China.

How it’s overseen must reflect that bloom.bg/3wvp3hU

Warmer temperatures are heralding ice-free summers for the Arctic, opening up all sorts of economic opportunities:

🛢Potential oil and gas riches
🛳New shipping routes
💥Military might

Decades of harmonious exceptionalism may be coming to an end bloom.bg/3wvp3hU

It is still possible to shield the region from rising tensions elsewhere.

That will require rethinking the role of states without polar territory, China among them, and creating an informal venue for security discussions that includes sanctions-hit Russia bloom.bg/3wvp3hU

🇨🇦Canada
🇩🇰Denmark
🇫🇮Finland
🇮🇸Iceland
🇳🇴Norway
🇸🇪Sweden
🇷🇺Russia
🇺🇸The U.S.

These eight Arctic states must also take real action to tackle the region’s greatest threat: climate change bloom.bg/3wvp3hU

It won’t be an easy balance to strike.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned against encroachment: “This is our land and our waters,” he said.

Framing the discussion as raw competition helps no one bloom.bg/3wvp3hU

New shipping routes are swifter and matter greatly for fossil fuels, but practical difficulties like mean these routes aren’t about to displace other options:

Pricier fuel bills
The need for stronger hulls
Crews trained to deal with sea ice bloom.bg/3wvp3hU

Nevertheless, the Arctic is changing fast.

Temperatures have warmed at three times the global average over the past 50 years. Shrinking sea ice will probably make matters worse as more heat is absorbed, rather than reflected back bloom.bg/3wvp3hU

Melting permafrost has already contributed to one of Russia’s worst fuel spills. Pathogens are also a major concern.

The surge in human activity increases the risk for misunderstandings and accidents bloom.bg/3wvp3hU

➡️ Russia is building capacity, resuming operations at Soviet-era bases
➡️ The U.S. reestablished the Navy’s Second Fleet and is adding icebreaker capacity
➡️ Denmark is spending over $120 million on drones for surveillance bloom.bg/3wvp3hU

So what needs to be done?

First, recognize the change. The Arctic doesn’t exist in a vacuum. A proliferation of issue-specific arrangements show the need for a broader approach, albeit one with the Council at its core bloom.bg/3wvp3hU

Russia wasn’t keen to allow China observer status in 2013, but Beijing is a big investor in Russian Arctic ventures.

It’s unclear how Moscow can keep Beijing at arm’s length as China becomes more integral to the Arctic’s development bloom.bg/3wvp3hU

Where security is concerned, something has to be done to foster dialogue and ensure more frequent armed forces’ maneuvers don’t lead to confrontation.

Informal meetings or expert discussions are overdue, and a code of conduct is also essential bloom.bg/3wvp3hU

Finally, for Arctic nations to maintain credibility, they need to show they’re serious about global warming.

The High North has been a bright spot for multilateralism. Climate action can keep it that way bloom.bg/3wvp3hU