The extraordinary reluctance to recommend mask wearing was part of the SAGE mindset that somehow British people would refuse to adopt the behavioural norms of much of Asia. It was also manifested in its and the PM’s resistance to locking down and restricting civil...
liberties. Its behavioural scientists were convinced Britons - unlike the Chinese or the Koreans - would not stomach it. They also thought suppression would just delay an inevitable viral surge, that there was no way of purging the virus till vaccines arrived...
through lockdown, testing and quarantines. As I have mentioned, the minutes of a SAGE meeting on 13 March, say: ‘SAGE was unanimous that measures seeking to completely suppress spread of Covid-19 will cause a second peak. SAGE advises...
that it is a near certainty that countries such as China, where heavy suppression is under way, will experience a second peak once measures are relaxed.’ SAGE was wrong. But it is perhaps not surprising that the PM and the health secretary moved so late - most would say...
too late - to lock down.

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More from @Peston

21 May
I am bemused by @BorisJohnson's optimism about the prospects for full unlocking on 21 June, based on the data he says he is seeing. Because the government's own daily published data is showing worrying trends for the Indian variant. For example there were 280 Covid19...
infections reported for Bolton alone yesterday, 10% of the UK total, and as you can see here the trend is steeply upward: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?…. That would be less worrying if there was also a steep rise in Covid19 testing in Bolton. But there isn't. As you can...
see here, the ratio of positive test results to tests carried out in Bolton - the positivity ratio - is holding fairly steady at about 7.5: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testin…. It is obviously encouraging that there...
Read 6 tweets
12 May
The ⁦@ONS⁩ says that the “broadest measure of inflation” - the “GDP deflator” - rose 4.8% in the first three months of the year. It is the question of the moment whether government stimuli and Covid19-impaired capacity means inflation is back is a serious risk. It is...
really striking that nominal GDP - GDP in cash terms - barely fell at all in the first quarter. All the 1.5% real decline was due to price rises
The other important way of looking at this is that output was surprisingly robust in the first three months of the year - since much of the so-called inflation was (eg) the phenomenon of the government paying teachers for not very much teaching, when lockdown closed schools
Read 8 tweets
11 May
The prime minister said today there would be a "full proper public enquiry" into the government's handling of the Covid-19 crisis. This is highly significant, because a "full proper public enquiry" means one led by a judge and with witnesses represented by lawyers...
I am also told - though Downing Street is refusing to comment on this - that the Cabinet will be asked by the prime minister to approve the terms of the enquiry tomorrow morning, and there could be an announcement shortly afterwards...
Such a public enquiry - like Leveson's into hacking and Chilcott's into the decision to go to war in Iraq - would take many years, and might not report until after the next election...
Read 8 tweets
9 May
One slightly odd thing about @Keir_Starmer’s reshuffle is normally a leader would want the support and advice of the deputy leader and the chief whip, to prevent party unity being seriously undermined. But Rayner has been publicly embarrassed by being stripped of her role...
as party chairman and there have been briefings that Nick Brown is losing his job as chief whip. So the question arises who is in the room with @Keir_Starmer if not them, to help him ensure the reshuffle isn’t a car crash. If he wanted to replace Brown and change...
Rayner’s duties, that would surely have been better done as the last pieces in the reshuffle jigsaw not the first. I constantly hear from Labour MPs that @Keir_Starmer’s greatest weakness is that he has too few people in his office who have grey hair and have seen it all before.
Read 5 tweets
8 May
Back to Scotland for a moment. I am told by a minister that the PM’s big plan to keep Scotland in the union is to love bomb it in the 18 months or so before @NicolaSturgeon introduces her referendum bill into the Scottish Parliament in late 2022 or early 2023. That is...
consistent with my assumption...
that he knows he can’t stand in the way of a referendum without dishonouring the UK’s democratic heritage, and taking the whole UK to a very dark place. As @GavinBarwell argues it is hard for a British PM to...
argue that parliamentary votes don’t matter, whether at Holyrood or at Westminster. His least risky strategy is probably to work out how to win a referendum, rather than looking at constitutional and legal devices to stop it. The UK will not...
Read 4 tweets
8 May
Bunker mentality seems to have arrived weirdly early in the @Keir_Starmer tenure. As I understand it @lisanandy and @JonAshworth are bracing themselves to be sacked for allegedly being disloyal to Labour’s leader. If they have been disloyal they certainly never showed such...
when I’ve spoken with them. And if @lisanandy is positioning herself for a tilt at the leadership, again that has been invisible to me. But they do have two characteristics unusual in @Keir_Starmer’s team: they’ve been effective in their jobs. So sacking them would...
arguably be self harming for Starmer and Labour. Maybe this is all post-election trauma gossip that is not rooted in reality. But as I say Nandy and Ashworth believe the gossip is well grounded. And given that @AngelaRayner has been sacked very publicly for an election...
Read 4 tweets

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