Thread by @adrianzenz

@drStuartGilmour: you a) falsely state I don't cite Chinese scholars, b) omit many of my most salient findings such as detailed sterilization plans for Uyghur counties, c) ignore the entire Xinjiang policy context, d) attribute 60% birth rate drops in 24 months to free choice. /1

https://twitter.com/drStuartGilmour/status/1395971354478792714

I would argue that the threat to be put in an internment camp for violating birth control regulations, quarterly-inspected government-placed (non-self-removable) IUDs, or "dragnet-style" investigations to discover and punish unapproved births, would impact birth rates. /2

Interestingly, drastic birth rate declines in 2017/18 in all four southern Uyghur majority prefectures, draconian new policies, a campaign of mass internment etc., and former internment camp detainee witness statements about forced sterilization, all happen to coincide. /3

The study you cite shows that researchers had to estimate Hotan's through modeling, based on actual population figures, due to a lack of recent data (the 2010 census reports TFR figures). Xinjiang's statistical yearbooks only report TFR data in 2011 for the 2010 census year./4

The study you cite also states: "Results of the field research show that 51% of the respondents want to have more than three children." (p.3) Meaning they want more than permitted under current family planning. /5

Plans to sterilize up to 1/3 of all rural women of childbearing age in Uyghur counties are major problem in a Muslim culture with traditionally low sterilization rates and a strong rejection of this birth control method (Chinese studies state as much). /6

Did you fail to read my discussion of the views of Chinese academic and officials on Uyghur family planning intentions? Are you intentionally misrepresenting my work? That does appear to be the case. /7

https://twitter.com/drStuartGilmour/status/1395971372162060293

Academic and state narratives argue that Uyghurs are fanatical about giving births for reasons of religious extremism. Li Xiaoxia charges Uyghurs with ignoring “economic benefit,” instead giving in to “religious hopes” and the “psychological needs of nationalism.” /8

Other Chinese academics suggest that high birth rates in southern Xinjiang are connected with religious beliefs, such as that “the fetus is a gift from Allah, and you cannot control birth and abortion at will.” /9

Yet other researchers state that “it is undeniable that the wave of extremist religious thinking has fueled a resurgence in birth rates in Xinjiang’s southern regions with concentrated Uyghur populations.” /10

State narratives similarly link illegal births (outside of regular family planning) to religious "extremism". “De-extremification" (also a euphemism for re-education) is an opportunity to "eliminate the influence and interference of religion on family planning." /11

In 2018, Xinjiang began to use the term “zero birth control violation incidents” a term that not routinely used elsewhere in the PRC. “Zero birth control violations” became a standard family planning target in 2018 and 2019. /12

A particularly strict case here is Hotan Prefecture, a region with a population of 2.53 million, which in 2019 planned to have no more than exactly 21 birth control policy violations. /13

I further cite research by Li Jianxin from 2016, who found that 36.1% of women in his field site in Kashgar had had three children or more, a figure that is quite close to Hotan City’s 34.3 percent sterilization target./14

There is much more supporting policy evidence and data from local and regional government departments than can could be cited in a Twitter thread. /15

Interestingly, the key evidence you failed to cite from my work overlaps almost 100% with that never mentioned by Chinese officials or state media. /16

Also, linking this atrocity with far-right etc. domestic US politics is a classic whataboutism tactic. /17

https://twitter.com/drStuartGilmour/status/1395971381523738627

Notably, scholars of Xinjiang, ethnic minorities, or China's population or family planning policy, don't agree with your assessment that Xinjiang's birth control campaign constitutes a positive family planning initiative that promotes much-needed developmental progress. /18

After misrepresenting my work, you then proceed to misrepresent my person.

Is this supposed to be comical?

Who do you think you are fooling with such false allegations? /19

https://twitter.com/drStuartGilmour/status/1395985897699512320

Just an example of an extensive discussion of Chinese research and academic work in my recent publication on forced labor. /20
jamestown.org/product/coerci…

Beijing and Xinjiang-based researchers have sought to attack my quantitative work. In doing so, they at times reveal that there are important data sources on Xinjiang's population that they themselves are not actually familiar with. /END
adrianzenz.medium.com/a-response-to-…

I forgot to mention that since my July 2020 publication, Xinjiang removed several local government reports containing population figures, stopped including demographic data in most such reports in southern Xinjiang, and removed regional and ethnic population breakdowns from...

...from the 2020 Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook. As if they had something to hide.